Overview of The Political Scene — "The MAGA Agenda Is Sinking in Popularity. What Might Donald Trump Do?"
This episode of The New Yorker’s Political Scene (hosts: Jane Mayer, Evan Osnos, Susan Glasser) assesses where Donald Trump stands one year into his second term: slipping popularity, consolidation of personal power, mixed policy results, growing public unease, and the political consequences heading into the midterms. The conversation covers Trump’s domestic record (economy, immigration, executive control), foreign-policy fallout, fractures inside the Republican coalition, and Democratic strategic options.
Key takeaways
- Popularity is softening: Recent polls (YouGov cited) show low approval—around the high 30s for job performance—and a majority view the presidency as a failure. “Dangerous” is a leading adjective assigned to him (about 50%).
- Power consolidation vs. policy success: Trump has centralized executive power—purging civil service norms, installing loyalists, stacking courts—but many signature campaign promises (improving everyday affordability, ending the Ukraine war, mass deportations) have not produced the positive outcomes he promised to voters.
- Economic pain is felt on Main Street: Indicators highlighted include slow job creation, business uncertainty and hiring freezes, a falling U.S. dollar offsetting stock gains, and concrete harm to small businesses (example: a toy maker reporting a 20% drop due to tariffs).
- Global isolation and risks: U.S. relations with allies (Canada, Mexico, Europe) have deteriorated; adversaries like Putin and Xi see an opportunity to reset dealings; administration posture raises risk of reckless foreign actions (concern about potential escalation with Iran).
- Republican party dynamics: Trump still dominates primaries and loyalist structures, creating a high floor of support (comparable historically to past embattled presidents). But fissures exist—over Epstein, specific constituency betrayals (e.g., “MAGA moms”), and intraparty disputes—though not yet decisive.
- Democratic strategy and energy: Democrats are divided between pragmatic/centrist and progressive wings; there is substantial grassroots energy (10,000+ protests in 2025), but money advantages and other structural factors mean outcomes in midterms are not guaranteed.
Topics discussed
- Trump’s day-one promises (inflation, eggs, ending Ukraine war, mass deportations, “one day” dictator remark) and the gap between rhetoric and outcomes.
- State of the Union preview: whether Trump can deliver a coherent persuasive speech given recent performance struggles and cognitive/focus concerns.
- Executive power: personalization of the presidency, replacement/weakening of civil service and oversight, appointments (judges and loyalists) and their legal/political consequences.
- Economy: job creation slowdown, business uncertainty, tariffs, dollar depreciation, consumer sentiment (only ~17% say they’re better off vs. a year ago).
- Immigration: backlash to harsh enforcement and deportation policies; political cost among voters including some Trump backers.
- Foreign policy: isolation of U.S., strained relationships, actions against Cuba and Venezuela, potential for confrontation with Iran.
- GOP politics: primary dynamics, influence of MAGA endorsements, examples (John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton in Texas, Kristi Noem, J.D. Vance), role of loyalists like Kash Patel and concerns about politicizing institutions (FBI).
- Democratic responses: internal ideological split (Newsom vs. Sanders-style populism), tactics around State of the Union (boycott vs. attend), emphasis on grassroots organizing vs. waiting for a dominant leader.
Notable quotes & vivid lines
- “It’s like Pyongyang on the Potomac” — on Trump imagery and displays of loyalty.
- “Waiter, this is not what I ordered” — recurring metaphor for voter buyer’s remorse.
- Descriptions of Trump being associated with “divisive, corrupt, cruel” and “dangerous” (50%).
- Toy-company anecdote: expected 10–15% growth but “ended up losing 20% of our business in 2025” because of tariffs and policy choices.
Implications — what to watch next
- State of the Union (immediate): Can Trump marshal a persuasive, coherent address? Will performance further dent support?
- Poll trends: movement among independents and soft Trump voters—tracking approval and “better off than a year ago” metrics.
- Key primaries: Texas contests (Cornyn vs. Paxton) as an early test of anti-MAGA/establishment viability; other Senate/House primaries to see whether the GOP remains unified.
- GOP institutional behavior: whether congressional Republicans defend institutional prerogatives or continue to be supine.
- Appointees and institutions: performance and consequences around figures like Kash Patel (FBI politicization, competence failures) — potential vulnerability for opposition.
- Foreign-policy flashpoints: signals around Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and relations with Canada/Mexico/Europe.
- Democratic strategy: whether grassroots protests and organizing translate into turnout and whether Democrats present a clear, unified message for midterms.
Practical takeaways for listeners
- If following U.S. politics: prioritize watching the State of the Union, key primary results (Texas), polls tracking approval and economic sentiment, and breaking foreign-policy moves related to Iran/Cuba/Venezuela.
- For activists: invest in local organizing and turnout—hosts stress that on-the-ground energy and protests are a healthier sign for democratic resilience than waiting for a single leader.
- For analysts/journalists: monitor institutional competence (e.g., FBI performance) as an opening for political accountability and campaign narratives about incompetence versus corruption.
Hosts: Jane Mayer, Evan Osnos, Susan Glasser. Production credits and sponsor spots noted in the episode.