Summary of Is Everything Going According to Marco Rubio’s Plan?

Overview of Is Everything Going According to Marco Rubio’s Plan?

This New Yorker episode of The Political Scene (host Tyler Foggett) features Dexter Filkins, who recently profiled Marco Rubio. The conversation examines Rubio’s unusual consolidation of power—simultaneously serving as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor in Donald Trump’s second term—his evolution from Trump critic to administration enabler, his prominent role in the recent Venezuela operation, and the broader consequences of the administration’s foreign‑policy choices (including the dismantling of USAID, relations with China, Russia/Ukraine dynamics, and posture toward Iran and Cuba).

Main themes and topics

• Rubio’s dual role (Secretary of State and National Security Advisor) and its historical rarity (compared to Henry Kissinger).
• Rubio’s influence in Latin America—especially Venezuela—and the political motivations behind U.S. actions in the hemisphere.
• The degree to which the Trump administration has a coherent plan vs. improvisation.
• The erosion of U.S. development and diplomatic capacity (notably USAID), and how that creates openings for rivals like China.
• Rubio’s political trajectory: ambition, opportunism, and his transformation into a Trump loyalist.
• Internal White House dynamics: Steve Witkoff’s outsized role, tensions over Ukraine policy, and competing camps in the administration.

Rubio’s role and influence (what Filkins reports)

• Early sidelining: At the start of the term, Trump entrusted many global crises to real‑estate associate Steve Witkoff, leaving Rubio with a narrower portfolio.
• Latin America focus: Rubio expressly asked to handle Latin America; he speaks Spanish, has Cuban heritage, and long championed democracy‑promotion in the region.
• Venezuela: Filkins argues Rubio became the main driving force behind recent aggressive U.S. actions (including the operation that captured Maduro). The approach has been coercive—blockades, oil pressure—rather than troop deployments.
• Limits and improvisation: Filkins describes the administration’s Venezuela strategy as largely improvised and understaffed. Rubio is one of only a few decision‑makers but lacks institutional help to govern the territory or shape detailed post‑operation plans.
• Other theaters: Rubio has been vocal on Iran (supporting protesters) and has tried to counter perceived concessions to Russia over Ukraine. His influence on a coherent China strategy appears muted because the administration lacks focus.

Key episodes and examples

• Immigration reform (2013–14): Rubio helped lead the bipartisan Gang of Eight effort, then withdrew after political calculations—an episode Filkins uses to illustrate Rubio’s political pragmatism/ambition.
• USAID dismantling: Under the administration, USAID was heavily cut or abolished (staff/funding drastically reduced per reporting). Rubio gave conflicting public messages about his role (initially saying he didn’t know, later testifying he “did the cuts”).
• Visa revocations: Rubio regularly publicizes visa revocations (Filkins cites Rubio claiming ~85,000 revocations) and has pushed social‑media checks for visa scrutiny.
• Steve Witkoff vs. Rubio: Witkoff traveled as Trump’s troubleshooter and at times offered proposals (e.g., on Ukraine) that Rubio worked to counter.

Policy impacts and consequences

• Humanitarian and development gaps: Cuts to USAID and program exits leave vulnerable populations—famine relief, public‑health programs, infrastructure—at risk.
• Strategic vacuum for rivals: Chinese and Russian actors are stepping into development and resources projects in Africa, Latin America, and elsewhere (e.g., rail/exports from Congo/Zambia) as U.S. programs stall.
• Mixed global posture: The administration oscillates—intervening aggressively in some places (Venezuela) while signaling retreat or regional focus in others (suggestion of ceding Eurasia to China/Russia).
• Domestic political implications: Rubio’s close identification with Trump policies ties his future political fortunes to the administration’s record.

Rubio’s political evolution and ambitions

• Background: Cuban‑American, rose rapidly in Florida politics and the Senate; described as a voracious reader, articulate, and ambitious (“I’ve always been in a hurry to get to my future”).
• Transformation: After the 2016 defeat, Rubio shifted many positions to align with Trump and remain viable in the Republican Party.
• Reputation and confirmation: Despite alignment with Trump, Rubio retained a reputation for seriousness and was confirmed as Secretary of State 99–0 in 2024.
• Presidential prospects: Filkins and the episode suggest Rubio likely aspires to the presidency (2028) but will be politically branded by his role in executing Trump’s agenda.

Notable quotes and characterizations from the interview

• Comparison: Rubio’s dual role likened to Henry Kissinger’s—though Filkins stresses the current moment and administration are very different.
• On planning: “They’re kind of making this up as they go along.” (describing Venezuela policy)
• On the U.S. strategy for Venezuela: “Government from afar by coercion—if you don’t do what I say, I’m going to whack you on the head with this.”
• On Rubio’s compromises: A British diplomat told Filkins Rubio “has had to swallow a lot of shit.”
• On internal decision‑making: “Only about six people who make decisions in the whole administration.”

Main takeaways

• Marco Rubio has concentrated extraordinary foreign‑policy authority in Trump’s second term, and he has been a central actor—especially in Latin America—despite earlier marginalization.
• The administration’s foreign policy is described as emotional, improvised, and heavily personalized; Rubio is both an enabler of Trump’s agenda and constrained by its lack of institutional support.
• The dismantling of U.S. development infrastructure (USAID) and other diplomatic retrenchments risk ceding strategic influence to China and weakening U.S. ability to shape outcomes abroad.
• Rubio’s personal ambition and political adaptability explain how he moved from critic to loyal executor; that alignment will shape his political future and how history judges him.

What to watch next

• Governance and humanitarian outcomes in Venezuela after the operation: who actually runs the country, treatment of opposition groups, and oil flows (especially Cuban oil access).
• Reconstitution or replacement of USAID and the practical effects on aid programs globally.
• U.S. policy coherence on China, and whether the administration reallocates focus/resources to the Indo‑Pacific.
• Internal White House dynamics: outcomes of the Witkoff vs. Rubio friction over Ukraine and other hotspots.
• Rubio’s political positioning toward 2028—whether he leans further into Trumpism or tries to reclaim a distinct foreign‑policy identity.