Summary of Is Cuba Trump’s Next Target?

Overview of Is Cuba Trump’s Next Target?

This New Yorker Radio Hour episode (part of The Political Scene) explores recent public remarks by Donald Trump and allies about “taking” or forcing regime change in Cuba amid worsening conditions on the island. Host David Remnick interviews New Yorker staff writer John Lee Anderson and Pulitzer‑winning historian Ada Ferrer to assess Cuba’s political leadership, humanitarian and economic collapse, U.S. policy options (including pressure and potential intervention), and the likely consequences for Cubans and Cuban Americans.

Key takeaways

• Cuba is in severe economic and humanitarian distress: frequent nationwide blackouts, near‑total lack of fuel, deteriorating hospitals and services, and a significant exodus (reported by interviewees as up to ~20% leaving).
• Miguel Díaz‑Canel is the ceremonial, handpicked successor to Raúl Castro with limited independent power; removing him would likely have little practical effect on regime control.
• The U.S. has been cutting off Cuba’s fuel/oil supplies since January (linked in the discussion to U.S. pressure after the Venezuela operation), deepening the crisis.
• Marco Rubio and other U.S. hardliners favor using economic leverage—sweeteners plus conditional openings—to force political concessions; Trump’s rhetoric suggests he sees a simple, personal “win” in deposing Cuban leaders.
• Both interviewees stress that a U.S. military intervention would be historically fraught, likely counterproductive, and could produce large‑scale chaos and migration pressures 90 miles from U.S. shores.
• The blame for Cuba’s current failure is shared: long‑standing U.S. embargo/policies have hurt the economy, but Cuban government policy choices (investment priorities, centralized control) also contributed to systemic breakdown.
• Many Cuban Americans (especially recent arrivals who grew up under the regime) favor stronger action to force change, complicating domestic U.S. politics around any policy decision.

Perspectives from the interviews

John Lee Anderson (New Yorker)

• Background: longtime reporter with frequent travel to Cuba; recently visited after Venezuela operation.
• Diagnosis:
  • Díaz‑Canel is an uninspiring front figure; real control remains with Raúl Castro and his circle.
  • Cuba is hollowed out—large emigration, empty neighborhoods, aging population, reliance on remittances.
  • The island faces acute fuel shortages due to U.S. measures; the national grid is repeatedly collapsing.
• U.S. strategy and Rubio’s role:
  • Rubio favors an approach that mixes economic opening (to U.S. investment) with political conditionality—aiming to recreate Venezuela‑style dependency.
  • Trump’s rhetoric frames the move as a personal victory; Anderson warns of American hubris and lack of deep knowledge about Cuba.
• Likely Cuban tactics:
  • Negotiate cautiously, trade limited economic concessions for fuel while avoiding political surrender; use national pride and suppression capabilities to avoid rapid collapse.
  • But unrest could spread and, if uncontrolled, provoke mass migration to the U.S.

Ada Ferrer (Pulitzer Prize historian; author of Cuba, An American History)

• Background: Cuban‑born historian who left Cuba in 1963; studies the long U.S.–Cuba relationship.
• Diagnosis:
  • The humanitarian reality is dire: hospitals lack basic supplies, garbage collection has failed, and infrastructure is collapsing.
  • The Cuban government bears responsibility for policy choices (heavy investment in tourism over agriculture/infrastructure) even as U.S. sanctions have inflicted damage.
• On “friendly” vs “unfriendly” takeover:
  • There is no such thing as a benign U.S. takeover of Cuba given the long history of U.S. interventionism and domination.
  • Historical memory (Platt Amendment, Bay of Pigs, decades of meddling) makes U.S. intervention deeply problematic.
• Cuban American politics:
  • Cuban Americans are diverse; many recent arrivals (who grew up under the regime) are more likely to welcome action to force change.
  • However, Ferrer is skeptical that U.S. intervention would produce a better outcome.
• On possible reforms:
  • Ferrer and Anderson both point to the need to legalize and enable the island’s existing entrepreneurial networks and private enterprise to improve living standards—implying political and economic reform rather than external conquest.

Historical and geopolitical context

• Cuba’s modern economy has been shaped by periods of outside patronage: Soviet subsidies during the Cold War, then Venezuelan oil for services (doctors, technicians) under Chávez; both patrons are now gone or diminished.
• U.S.–Cuba relations have swung between hostility and détente (e.g., Obama’s 2016 visit and partial normalization), but the U.S. embargo and interventionist history loom large.
• The episode connects recent talk of Cuban regime change to concurrent U.S. military engagement in the Middle East (the Iran war), suggesting American entanglement elsewhere could influence both leverage and outcomes.

Possible scenarios and risks

• Negotiated economic concessions: the U.S. could offer fuel and investment in exchange for limited economic openings—risking neo‑dependency similar to Venezuela.
• Prolonged negotiation: Cuba may stall and negotiate strategically to buy time, using national pride and security structures to maintain control.
• Political destabilization: coercive or rushed attempts at regime change could spark chaos, violent repression, and a large refugee flow to the U.S. (a serious domestic political and humanitarian problem given Cuba’s proximity).
• Military intervention: historically risky, likely to generate broad resentment, and unlikely to deliver stable, democratic outcomes.

Notable quotes

• Trump (as cited): “I can do anything I want with it… I can do whatever I want with it.” (Used to illustrate the personal, simplistic framing of intervention.)
• John Lee Anderson on Díaz‑Canel: “He’s the front man for the regime… removing him would do zip.”
• Ada Ferrer on intervention: “There’s no such thing as a friendly takeover of Cuba.”

Read/watch/listen suggestions (from the episode)

• John Lee Anderson’s reporting on Cuba at newyorker.com.
• Ada Ferrer, Cuba, An American History (Pulitzer Prize winner).
• The New Yorker Radio Hour episode for full interviews and context.

Bottom line

Cuba is facing an acute humanitarian and economic crisis that makes it vulnerable to external pressure. However, both seasoned reporting and historical perspective in this episode warn that U.S. attempts to “take” Cuba—whether by pressure, engineered dependency, or military means—are likely to be fraught, historically suspect, and could produce destabilization and migration crises. Sustainable improvement on the island would likely require internal political and economic reforms (e.g., legalization of entrepreneurial activity) rather than foreign conquest.