Overview of The Political Scene — "A Stark Warning About the 2026 Election, with Robert Kagan"
This episode of The New Yorker’s The Political Scene features historian and Brookings senior fellow Robert Kagan. Kagan revisits his 2016 essay, "This Is How Fascism Comes to America," explains why he foresaw Trump-style authoritarianism, and issues a stark warning about the U.S. political trajectory heading into 2026. The conversation covers domestic authoritarian mechanisms, failures of political and social elites, the risks of foreign adventurism as a tool of domestic control, and the global realignment toward a multipolar, militarized world.
Key takeaways
- Kagan predicted in 2016 that a charismatic TV politician could erode democratic norms by tapping into longstanding currents of white Christian supremacy and mass resentment; he says that process is now "virtually complete."
- The immediate danger is that the 2026 election will not be a free and fair contest: Kagan expects that Trump and his allies will refuse to accept defeat and will use federal power to intervene in state politics.
- Minnesota (in the conversation) is described as a "dress rehearsal" for federal deployments intended to desensitize the public to using overwhelming force against domestic jurisdictions.
- Domestic tools—ICE, DOJ, the intelligence apparatus, and paramilitary-like forces—are being built or used to centralize power and suppress dissent.
- War or military interventions abroad (e.g., Venezuela, or a possible conflict with Iran) would expand executive power, militarize society, and provide pretexts to curtail civil liberties at home.
- The U.S.-led post–1945 liberal order is collapsing into a multipolar, power-centric world of spheres of influence; Europe, Asia, and other states may respond with significant rearmament and nuclear proliferation.
- The failure of elites—political, economic, and institutional—to resist is one of the most consequential accelerants of authoritarian drift.
- Citizens should act now: contact elected officials, join organized movements such as “No Kings,” pressure Republicans and elites to resist, and demand protections for fair elections.
How Kagan saw it in 2016 (and why he wasn’t surprised afterward)
- His 2016 essay warned that fascism in America could arise not through obvious militaristic symbols but through a demagogue exploiting resentments and a compliant party.
- Two core elements made the risk obvious to him then and now:
- Trump’s personal drive for domination rather than policy-oriented governance.
- A preexisting movement in American history that rejects the founders’ egalitarian liberalism and wants a hierarchical social order rooted in white Christian supremacy.
- Kagan argues many pundits and elites failed to read these signals because they relied on an exceptionalist, post–World War II frame rather than longer historical patterns.
Immediate domestic threats and the 2026 risk
- Kagan expects Trump will not allow a loss in 2026, predicting:
- Federal forces (ICE, possibly active-duty military under the Insurrection Act) used to control or invade Democratic-run states.
- Provocations and brutal tactics to generate unrest that could be used to justify national security interventions and ballot seizures.
- A substantial base (he estimates ~35–40%) willing to accept or support authoritarian measures; another chunk of the public indifferent or in denial.
- Institutions that might have been brakes—Congress, the Supreme Court, corporate elites, the foreign-policy establishment—have largely failed to resist, making the scenario more likely.
- The Supreme Court’s historical deference in security cases (e.g., Korematsu) and the presence of justices ideologically sympathetic to stronger executive claims reduce judicial obstacles.
Domestic mechanisms of authoritarian consolidation
- ICE and similar agencies have been transformed into paramilitary instruments loyal to the executive—used to intimidate, detain, and provoke.
- The Justice Department, intelligence community elements, and federal law enforcement can be turned toward political ends.
- The Insurrection Act and executive orders governing election procedures are explicit legal pathways Kagan warns could be weaponized.
- Militarization and wartime posture create political cover for expanded executive authority and suppression of protests.
Foreign policy and global consequences
- Trump-era rhetoric and advisors (e.g., Stephen Miller’s "law of might makes right") mean the U.S. could pursue aggressive, unilateral interventions that serve domestic consolidation goals.
- The episode argues we are shifting back to a 19th‑century–style multipolar world with spheres of influence:
- Russia, China (and potentially rearmed Germany, Japan, India) reasserting regional dominance.
- NATO members and other states will likely rearm and reorganize to guarantee their own security—raising the risk of repeated major-power conflicts.
- Nuclear proliferation risks: Kagan predicts Japan, Korea, and possibly Poland will consider nuclearization under intense regional pressures.
- A war abroad (Iran or others) is particularly perilous because it magnifies executive power, normalizes militarized governance, and provides justification to stifle dissent domestically.
Institutional and civic remedies Kagan recommends
- Pressure elected officials: contact representatives, write letters, attend town halls, and make resistance to authoritarian moves a loud local and national demand.
- Build and expand organized civic resistance movements (e.g., "No Kings") to block normalization of dictatorship.
- Democrats should be bolder on issues that expose the apparatus (Kagan explicitly calls for defunding ICE) and stop ceding law-and-order narratives that enable authoritarian tactics.
- Elites—former officials, think tanks, corporate leaders—must stop sacrificing democratic norms for personal or financial comfort and must publicly resist anti-democratic measures.
- Monitor and defend election administration: insist on transparent, secure ballot processes and resist federal interference intended to seize or alter ballots.
Notable quotes from the episode
- From Kagan’s 2016 essay (quoted in the interview): “This is how fascism comes to America, not with jackboots and salutes, but with a television huckster…a textbook egomaniac…tapping into popular resentments.”
- “He is about domination.”
- “I think 40% of the country is down with it.”
- “The failure of the elite is, to me, the most astonishing thing.”
- “There is nothing more perilous to American democracy right now than [a war with Iran].”
- “I don't want anybody sleeping well. This is not a time to be sleeping well.”
Bottom line / urgency
Robert Kagan argues we are no longer facing a theoretical risk: we are in an advanced phase of democratic erosion where a powerful executive, a compliant political party, muted elites, and specific institutional instruments (ICE, DOJ, courts, Insurrection Act) together create a credible pathway to authoritarian rule. The global implications include a return to a conflict-prone multipolar world. Kagan’s prescription is blunt: civic mobilization, sustained pressure on elected officials, and courage from elites are urgently needed to avert a constitutional and political collapse.