Overview of Is Donald Trump’s Unpopularity Catching Up with Republicans?
This New Yorker conversation between Taylor Foggett and political reporter Jason Zengerle examines how Donald Trump’s fading popularity is shaping Republican strategy ahead of the midterms. The discussion focuses on the tension Republican candidates face: they still need Trump’s base to turn out, but his brand is becoming a liability with swing voters and even some former supporters. The episode also looks ahead to how these dynamics could shape the 2028 presidential field.
Main Takeaways
- Republicans are trapped by Trump’s dual role: he remains the party’s strongest turnout engine, but also a drag on competitive candidates.
- Many GOP candidates are trying to “have it both ways”:
- They avoid openly disavowing Trump.
- They also try not to appear too close to him in ads, events, or media appearances.
- Trump is not campaigning where the most competitive races are:
- He is mostly visiting deep-red states rather than swing districts or true toss-ups.
- That suggests either a desire to help endangered Republicans in red states or a preference for friendly crowds.
- His influence over the party remains huge:
- Even if some Trump-backed candidates lose, it likely won’t weaken his grip on Republicans.
- He still dominates primaries and candidate selection.
How Republicans Are Handling Trump
The “tightrope” strategy
Republican candidates are trying to balance two competing needs:
- Use Trump to motivate the base
- Distance themselves enough to avoid alienating moderates
Zengerle describes this as a narrow and difficult line to walk. Candidates may want Trump’s endorsement, but not necessarily his presence on the campaign trail.
Ads and public messaging
Republicans are largely de-emphasizing Trump in advertising, while Democrats are doing the opposite.
- Democrats and allied groups have spent far more on Trump-focused attack ads.
- Republicans have been much more cautious about invoking him directly.
- This reflects a strategic concern that Trump is less of an asset in competitive, high-turnout races than he once was.
Trump’s Rallies and Political Style
Trump’s rallies are portrayed as less about the election and more about Trump himself.
What stands out
- He has been talking in increasingly strange and personal ways, including repeated references to people’s bodies and attractiveness.
- Zengerle argues Trump is fully aware of how odd this looks.
- Rather than avoid the weirdness, Trump seems to lean into it because he enjoys the reaction.
Why the rallies still matter
- They are a major source of energy for Trump personally.
- They let him test slogans, riff on the spot, and control the room.
- Even if the effect is mostly local, Trump’s rally appearances can still shape local news coverage and reinforce partisan identity.
Policy Problems Republicans Are Forced to Answer For
The war and the economy
Republican candidates are struggling to defend Trump’s unpopular foreign-policy choices, especially because voters tend to feel the effects indirectly through:
- gas prices
- grocery prices
- diesel costs
- broader economic anxiety
Their response has often been to offer counterfactual arguments like:
- “If Iran got a nuke, gas would be $8 a gallon.”
Zengerle argues these arguments rarely resonate because they do not match voters’ lived experience.
Immigration backlash
Immigration has become a more serious liability for Trump and Republicans in some areas, especially among Hispanic voters.
Key points:
- Many Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 are now repelled by the scale and tone of ICE enforcement.
- Some GOP candidates and incumbents are being forced to distance themselves from the crackdown.
- The episode highlights a notable example of an incumbent Republican in South Florida publicly saying Trump’s immigration policies have gone too far.
Trump-Handpicked Candidates Are Struggling
The conversation spends significant time on Republicans Trump personally boosted or selected.
Examples discussed
- Ken Paxton
- Michael Whatley
- Darlene Graham
- Vivek Ramaswamy
Zengerle’s view: Trump’s candidate-picking instincts remain deeply flawed.
Why this matters
- Trump often elevates candidates based on loyalty or personal grievance rather than electability.
- His endorsements can dominate primaries, but that doesn’t guarantee general-election success.
- In some states, his choices have turned what should have been easy Republican wins into real contests.
The Trump Dividend and Populist Promises
An audience question brought up Trump’s promised $5,000 “dividend” if Republicans hold Congress.
Zengerle’s take
- He sees it as a vote-buying gimmick, not a serious policy.
- Voters, including many Republicans, seem skeptical it will happen.
- Even so, Trump may benefit from making the promise because it can still move a small number of voters.
Bigger point
Trump rarely seems to face political punishment for making grand, unrealistic promises. The lowered expectations around presidential behavior work in his favor.
The Ohio Ad and Trump-Style Politics
The conversation also covers a shocking ad tied to Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign in Ohio.
Why it stood out
- The ad attacks Democratic candidate Amy Acton through her estranged mother.
- It exploits the fact that Acton was sexually abused as a child.
- The tone is seen as cruel, political, and intentionally provocative.
Zengerle’s interpretation
- Ramaswamy is trying to imitate Trump’s style:
- never apologize
- always attack
- stay on offense
- But that style may be uniquely effective only for Trump himself.
- Other Republicans who copy it may not get the same results.
What This Means for 2028
The episode closes by looking ahead to the next presidential race.
Core argument
- The only truly viable Republican presidential contenders in 2028 will likely be the ones Trump blesses.
- Trump’s endorsement may still function as the decisive factor in the GOP primary.
- Even prominent figures like J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley are viewed through that lens.
Why the field may stay constrained
- Trump’s influence over the party is still so strong that it is hard to imagine an independent Republican path to the nomination.
- His dominance may outlast his presidency in much the way Obama continued to shape Democratic politics after leaving office.
Democrats’ Limits Even If They Win
If Democrats do gain control of one or both chambers, Zengerle says they still may be limited by the Senate filibuster and the broader partisan stalemate.
Likely Democratic priorities
- messaging bills
- oversight investigations
- laying groundwork for the 2028 presidential race
Bottom line
Even a major Democratic victory may not unlock much governing power unless Republicans are willing to break with Trump or the Senate rules change.
Notable Insights
- Trump is both the Republican Party’s greatest asset and biggest liability.
- His influence is still strong enough that many GOP candidates fear upsetting him more than losing to Democrats.
- Trump’s political style is no longer just about ideology; it is about permanent conflict, trolling, and performance.
- The party’s future, at least for now, still runs through Trump.
Bottom Line
The episode argues that Trump’s unpopularity is absolutely affecting Republicans—but not necessarily in a way that weakens Trump himself. Instead, it is forcing GOP candidates into a difficult balancing act, hurting their message discipline, and exposing the limits of Trump-style politics when Trump is not personally on the ballot. At the same time, Trump’s grip on the party still appears strong enough that even a poor election cycle may not loosen it.