Overview of Has MAGA Lost Faith in Donald Trump?
This episode of The New Yorker Radio Hour features David Remnick in conversation with pollster Rich Barris of Big Data Poll, a self-described Trump sympathizer who argues that MAGA support for Donald Trump is weakening from within. Barris says Trump’s coalition is suffering from deep disappointment over foreign policy, the Epstein file controversy, inflation and economic frustration, and what many voters see as blatant self-dealing by Trump and his circle. He predicts major Republican losses in the coming election and says the GOP’s problems go far beyond a single bad cycle: they reflect a broader collapse of trust between the party’s leadership, donors, and its base.
Core Argument: MAGA’s Bond With Trump Is Fraying
The key shift
Barris says Trump’s usual political protection has broken down because the backlash is not coming from “external enemies” like the media or the FBI, but from Trump himself.
- In the past, attacks on Trump often strengthened his supporters’ loyalty.
- This time, Barris argues, the disappointment is self-inflicted.
- He says many voters feel Trump has become “just another politician,” which undermines the emotional bond that once made him politically durable.
What is causing the break
Barris identifies several triggers:
- The Epstein file controversy: He calls this the first major crack, because it symbolized the “ruling class” protecting itself.
- The Iran/foreign policy focus: He says many Trump voters feel betrayed that the administration prioritized foreign policy over domestic concerns.
- The “grift”: Barris points to the perceived enrichment of Trump family members and allies as a major source of disillusionment.
- Economic pain: He says voters are still focused on prices, wages, and insecurity—and blame Trump for not delivering.
Barris’s Forecast for the Election
Republican losses ahead
Barris is blunt: he believes the House is already lost for Republicans, and the Senate map is in serious trouble as well.
He says the party is seeing unusual weakness in places that should be safe:
- Maine
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Alaska
- Texas
- even potentially unthinkable swing territory
His core point is that the usual late-cycle Republican comeback is not happening. He sees current polling as resembling a Democratic wave rather than a tightening race.
Why turnout is the problem
Barris argues that Trump can still energize parts of his base, but:
- the base is smaller than it used to be
- many voters are staying home
- depressed enthusiasm among core supporters also weakens Republican performance with independents
In his view, this is not just a polling artifact—it reflects real demoralization.
Hispanics, Immigration, and the Limits of Trump’s Coalition
The Hispanic shift
One of the episode’s major topics is whether Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters are holding. Barris says they are reversing significantly, especially in places like Texas.
He argues the reasons are mostly economic, but immigration policy matters too.
Mass deportations backfiring
Barris says many Hispanic voters were not necessarily opposed to tougher immigration enforcement in principle. What bothered them was:
- the spectacle of mass deportations
- the use of masked agents
- a lack of transparency about who was being targeted
- the sense that the policy was indiscriminate and dehumanizing
He says voters were especially angry that Trump seemed to be targeting workers, not just employers.
What Trump Means for the GOP Going Forward
Trumpism may not outlive Trump
Barris says Trump’s biggest achievement was shifting the Overton window on immigration and breaking the old rules of Republican messaging. But he also says the movement was always deeply personal to Trump.
His broader view:
- Trump changed the Republican Party
- but the party’s old donor-driven structure is still a problem
- and without Trump’s unique appeal, it’s unclear who can hold the coalition together
The next generation: Vance, Rubio, and Carlson
Barris discusses possible post-Trump figures:
- J.D. Vance: likely the strongest inheritor of Trumpism, though he faces the problem of being tied to the current administration’s baggage.
- Marco Rubio: less compelling unless Vance does not run.
- Tucker Carlson: Barris sees Carlson as increasingly influential with younger right-wing voters, especially those under 55.
Notable Takeaways
- Barris insists the Republican Party often betrays its voters because donors overpower the base.
- He believes Trump’s coalition once had room to grow across race and class lines, but that opportunity is being squandered.
- He is particularly concerned that parts of the right are reverting to blaming minorities and immigrant groups, which he sees as both morally and politically self-defeating.
- His most striking claim is that Trump is more unpopular now than in the immediate aftermath of January 6, which he says shows how damaging the current disappointment is.
Bottom Line
The conversation’s central message is that MAGA’s loyalty to Trump is no longer automatic. According to Rich Barris, the movement is being weakened not by outside attacks, but by Trump’s own failures to deliver, his association with elite self-dealing, and his missteps on foreign policy and immigration. If Barris is right, the result could be not just a bad election for Republicans, but a deeper crisis for Trumpism itself.