PMS 2.0 1646 - TNF Preview/Picks, Steve Young, Mark DeRosa, Ian Rapoport, Kirk Herbstreit, Coach Chuck Pagano, & AJ Hawk

Summary of PMS 2.0 1646 - TNF Preview/Picks, Steve Young, Mark DeRosa, Ian Rapoport, Kirk Herbstreit, Coach Chuck Pagano, & AJ Hawk

by Pat McAfee, ESPN

3h 0m•October 15, 2026

Overview of PMS 2.0 1646 with Pat McAfee

This episode mixed Thursday Night Football preview, major NFL news, college football talk, and a deep dive into MLB postseason chaos. Pat McAfee and the crew spent most of the show debating Seahawks vs. Broncos, reacting to the shocking Jalen Hurts blood clot news, previewing a loaded college football weekend with Steve Young as BYU’s College GameDay guest picker, and breaking down the Dodgers’ collapse plus MLB’s weather-related schedule change for Guardians-Rays. The show ended with the crew making their picks, and they also tried — unsuccessfully — to cash a DraftKings super boost.

Biggest Stories and Takeaways

Seahawks vs. Broncos: Thursday Night Football preview

  • The crew opened with a full breakdown of Seattle at Denver.
  • Key storyline: Seattle’s elite road ATS record under Mike Macdonald versus Denver’s strong home-field advantage at altitude.
  • Denver’s concerns:
    • Bo Nix has been inconsistent and Denver’s offense has struggled early in games.
    • Injuries on the back end, including Pat Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga.
  • Seattle’s concerns:
    • They turned the ball over a lot in their last game.
    • The offense still runs heavily through Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
  • The consensus from the football analysts was that this could be a low-scoring, turnover-heavy game.

Jalen Hurts injury update: blood clot diagnosis

  • Ian Rapoport reported that Jalen Hurts is out Sunday due to a superficial blood clot that has shifted.
  • The explanation made clear why this is serious:
    • If clots move from the calf to the lungs or heart, the danger rises sharply.
    • Hurts will likely need treatment, often involving blood thinners.
  • Kirk Herbstreit then shared his own personal story of dealing with blood clots and a pulmonary embolism, urging people to take calf pain seriously and get checked.
  • The tone shifted here from football analysis to a very real health conversation.

MLB postseason: Dodgers in trouble, Brewers rolling

  • Mark DeRosa joined to discuss baseball’s postseason landscape.
  • Main baseball takeaways:
    • The Brewers are dominating the Dodgers, who look cold and out of answers.
    • The discussion around Shohei Ohtani being dinged up or not at full strength came up, but DeRosa emphasized that the whole Dodgers offense is cold.
    • He praised Milwaukee’s approach, saying they’re not just “small ball” — they’re winning with power and pitching.
  • The crew also discussed the Rays vs. Guardians game being moved from 6 p.m. to 1 p.m. because of weather.
    • DeRosa supported the decision as a common-sense move.
  • The conversation also drifted into labor politics:
    • If small-market teams keep winning, it could fuel arguments for a salary floor/salary cap system in baseball’s next CBA.
    • DeRosa and the crew argued that good organizations win because of development, coaching, and roster construction — not just payroll.

Steve Young on BYU and College GameDay

  • Steve Young was announced as the College GameDay celebrity guest picker for BYU vs. Notre Dame in Provo.
  • He talked about:
    • BYU’s rise into the Big 12
    • The school’s culture and community
    • Why Kalani Sitake stayed and what makes him special
  • Steve framed BYU’s current moment as a kind of coming-out party on the national stage.
  • Pat and the crew also noted how impressive it is that GameDay is finally back in Provo after a long gap.

Other Notable Topics

College football weekend preview

The crew and Herbie highlighted a huge slate:

  • BYU vs. Notre Dame
  • Ohio State vs. Indiana
  • Alabama vs. Tennessee
  • Texas vs. Florida
  • Missouri vs. Ole Miss
  • Kentucky vs. Oklahoma
  • UCLA vs. Wisconsin
  • Oklahoma State vs. Houston

Big themes:

  • The sport feels unusually deep and competitive.
  • Several ranked teams still have major tests ahead.
  • The weekend was framed as one of the best of the season.

Expanded College Football Playoff to 24 teams

  • The show spent a good amount of time on the reported move from a 12-team playoff to 24 teams starting in 2027.
  • The crew’s stance:
    • It’s a done deal and people will have to adapt.
    • It likely helps more schools stay relevant deeper into the season.
    • It may reduce the emphasis on conference title games and bowl season as currently structured.
  • They debated whether this change hurts tradition or simply reflects the modern reality of NIL and broader parity.
  • The group generally leaned toward: more access, more games, more chaos — but still good for the sport.

Chuck Pagano’s football breakdowns and “what the Chuck?”

  • Coach Pagano came prepared with several detailed film and situational breakdowns.
  • He introduced his own evaluation idea:
    • PSR = Pagano Situational Rating
    • A weighted ranking system using things like third down, red zone, sacks, and turnovers.
  • He also recapped several “what the Chuck?” moments from Week 5:
    • The Commanders’ clock management blunder
    • The Jaguars’ kickoff-return touchdown being wiped out
    • The Colts’ defense giving up a huge explosive play
  • His final pick: Seahawks minus 2.5

Picks and Betting Angle

Seahawks vs. Broncos picks

  • Pat McAfee: Seahawks
  • A.J. Hawk: Seahawks
  • Chuck Pagano: Seahawks
  • Boston Connor / on-air crew: split, but several landed on Broncos due to the home-dog trend
  • Ty Schmidt and others leaned on the home-team/prime-time dog trend and took Denver
  • The final room vibe: the line felt close, but most of the football brains leaned Seattle

DraftKings super boost

The crew promoted a boost built around:

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score
  • Bo Nix to rush for 10+ yards

They were optimistic but very aware that:

  • Kneel-downs can ruin player prop-based boosts
  • Thursday night games can get weird fast

Final Thoughts

This was a classic McAfee show episode: loud, sports-heavy, and packed with guests. The biggest non-football moment was the serious discussion around Jalen Hurts’ blood clot, which gave the show a real-life gravity. On the sports side, the episode focused on:

  • Seattle vs. Denver
  • BYU vs. Notre Dame
  • Dodgers in trouble
  • MLB weather adjustments
  • The coming 24-team College Football Playoff

It was equal parts analysis, chaos, inside jokes, and genuine sports talk — exactly what the show does best.