Summary of Voters reject the establishment in this week’s primaries

Overview of NPR Politics Podcast: Voters Reject the Establishment in This Week’s Primaries

This NPR Politics Podcast episode covers a busy week of primary elections across six states, highlighting a continued anti-establishment mood in both parties. The hosts discuss surprising results in South Dakota and Iowa, the slow vote count and “red mirage” confusion in California, and a New Jersey race shaped by an incumbent’s undisclosed illness. The second half of the episode shifts to redistricting, where the Supreme Court’s Alabama decision signals a major change in how courts may treat race and congressional map drawing, with big implications for the 2026 House battle and beyond.

Primary Election Takeaways

Anti-incumbent sentiment is still shaping the races

• Across the primaries, voters repeatedly favored outsiders, lesser-known candidates, or candidates running against the political establishment.
• In many cases, that didn’t mean incumbents always lost — but it did mean anti-Washington energy remained strong.

South Dakota governor’s primary

• The Republican primary featured a four-way race including:
  • the incumbent governor,
  • the state’s at-large U.S. House member,
  • the state House speaker,
  • and a car salesman, Toby Doeden.
• Doeden finished first, ahead of the incumbent, sending the race to a runoff.
• The hosts caution against overreading the result because the runoff still decides the nomination.

Iowa GOP governor’s primary: Trump’s pick loses

• President Trump endorsed Randy Feenstra late in the race, but Feenstra narrowly lost to Zach Lane.
• Lane ran as an outsider, “Iowa first” candidate and was associated with the MAHA wing of the GOP.
• This was the first major Trump-backed loss of the cycle and could matter in what is expected to be a close gubernatorial race in the fall.
• The hosts note this is less about Trump’s influence fading overall and more about this specific race and candidate.

Iowa Democratic Senate primary: electability beat ideology

• Democrats chose Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympian, over younger progressive Zach Walls.
• Turek sold himself as the more electable candidate in a conservative-leaning state and had support from the party establishment, including Chuck Schumer.
• Walls ran explicitly against the establishment, but voters ultimately favored the candidate they thought had a better chance in the general election.

California Primary and Vote Counting

Why the results are taking so long

• California uses a vote-by-mail system, and ballots can be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive later.
• Republicans tend to vote in person more often, so their totals appear first.
• That creates a “red mirage,” where early results can make Republican candidates look stronger than they really are.

What’s happening so far

• In the California governor’s race, Republican Steve Hilton is currently ahead of Democrats Javier Becerra and Tom Steyer.
• In the Los Angeles mayor’s race, incumbent Karen Bass is leading, with Spencer Pratt briefly in second, though a Democrat could still move into the second runoff spot as more ballots are counted.
• Several House races are also still being counted, especially after California’s recent redistricting changes.

Trump’s claims about a “steal”

• Trump posted that Democrats were trying to “steal” the California primaries.
• The hosts explain that this is a familiar misinformation pattern from 2020: early Republican leads are often the result of vote-counting order, not fraud.
• Officials can count ballots through June 9, so many results are still pending.

New Jersey Race to Watch

NJ-7 is shaping up as a general election battleground

• Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot and health care worker, won the primary.
• The race matters because incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has been absent from public view since March due to an undisclosed illness.
• The district had already been considered a competitive battleground, and Bennett now has a clearer path while Kean is out.

Redistricting and the Supreme Court

Alabama ruling marks a major shift

• The Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use a congressional map with only one majority-Black district out of seven.
• That reverses the earlier lower-court ruling, which had required a second majority-Black district because Black residents make up more than a quarter of the state’s population.
• The decision suggests a new, more permissive legal framework for maps with reduced minority representation.

Louisiana and South Carolina developments

• In Louisiana, lawmakers redrew the map after earlier litigation and eliminated one of the state’s two majority-Black districts.
• In South Carolina, an effort to redraw the maps and remove the state’s one majority-Black district failed after some Republicans resisted the plan.

The current seat math

• Republicans have now drawn maps that could favor them in 16 additional House seats.
• Democrats have drawn about 6 additional seats.
• With other changes, the net advantage is roughly +10 seats for Republicans.
• The hosts stress that this does not guarantee outcomes, but it gives Republicans a meaningful edge heading into the midterms.

Bigger Picture: What Comes Next

The redistricting arms race is likely not over

• The hosts believe this cycle may not be the end of mid-decade map drawing.
• Democrats are already talking about redrawing maps in places like Illinois and New York in 2028.
• Because Republicans moved first and Trump effectively signaled that this kind of redistricting is acceptable, neither party seems likely to “disarm” unilaterally.

What to watch in November

• The hosts say the real test will be whether these redrawn maps actually hold up in a strong year for either party.
• Some new maps, especially in places like Louisiana and Tennessee, are designed to be very safe for Republicans.
• Others, including Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, could backfire if Democrats have a strong national year.

Main Takeaways

• Voters in multiple primaries showed a continued preference for outsiders and candidates seen as less tied to the establishment.
• Trump’s influence remains strong, but not invincible — especially in races where his chosen candidate was already slipping.
• California’s slow vote count is normal and does not indicate fraud; it reflects how mail ballots are processed.
• The Supreme Court’s Alabama decision could reshape how race and district lines are treated nationally.
• Redistricting is now a high-stakes partisan arms race that could stay active through the next census.