Overview of The Pats’ Battle with Seattle: A Super Bowl Preview!
Host Mina Kimes (with Ben Solak) break down the Super Bowl matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. The conversation focuses on the tactical chess match — personnel groupings, how each team plans to get an advantage (interior pass rush vs. play-action/12-personnel), quarterback strengths and weaknesses, and which matchups and situational edges will decide the game. The hosts lean toward Seattle but map out several clear paths for a Patriots upset.
Main themes and thesis
- This is a coach-of-the-year bowl: schematic and situational adjustments should matter more than pure talent mismatches.
- The game will be decided by three broad things:
- Can New England generate interior pressure on Sam Darnold without overcommitting and getting beat by Seattle’s movement/boot game?
- Can Drake May (Patriots QB) use his scrambling/extension ability and accurate downfield throws to create explosive plays against a Seattle defense that usually forces checkdowns?
- Who wins the weapons matchups — JSN vs. Christian Gonzalez (and safety help), and the film battles between secondary vs. wide receivers/TEs?
- Expect a low-scoring, situational game where turnovers/short fields and a few explosive plays swing the result.
Key matchups to watch
- Christian “JSN” (Jakobi? — transcript uses JSN as shorthand) vs. CB Christian Gonzalez (and whether New England gives him safety help). JSN’s gravity creates lots of “wide-open” opportunities for teammates.
- Patriots interior pass rush (Christian Barmore & Milton Williams) vs. Seattle’s inside protection and Sam Darnold’s ability to avoid pressure/roll out.
- Seahawks 12-personnel (two-TE) play-action & run game vs. Patriots nickel/dime packages — how New England counters condensed formations.
- Drake May and Patriots pass-catchers (Booty, Diggs, Hollins) vs. Seahawks corners (Willson/Woolen/Witherspoon) — especially in downfield, tight-window throws.
- Kenneth Walker (running + receiving screens) vs. Patriots linebackers/second-level defenders.
Seahawks — offense strengths & plan
- Heavy use of 12 personnel with play-action: extremely productive — when Seattle runs play-action out of two-TE looks they average very large yards/play (hosts cited ~13.1 yards/play).
- JSN’s presence creates outsized “wide-open” opportunities for other receivers (stat: throws >10 yards to Seahawks targets other than JSN are wide open around 20% vs. a 10% NFL average).
- Sam Darnold is dangerous on rollouts and designed movement plays; Seattle plans to use boots and movement to neutralize rushers and create one-on-ones.
- Kenneth Walker: strong receiving skills (screens, wheel routes) plus improved running late in the season — an important secondary receiving option when JSN is bracketed.
- Offensive approach: keep pressure to a minimum (avoid third-and-long), attack by sustaining early-gain success (running + play-action + boots), and get short fields or exploit brackets on JSN by targeting other matchups.
Patriots — defense strengths & plan
- Elite corner duo (Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis) and strong interior defender impact (Barmore/Williams when available). With both interior tackles, New England’s pass rush metrics spike dramatically.
- New England will likely mix nickel and base packages (they’re a nickel-leaning defense even versus multi-TE sets) and may use a base 3-4 with bigger bodies (Tonga) to defend the run.
- Strategy: try to force negative plays early (first/second down), bring interior pressure, and funnel passing into contested areas where the Patriots’ DBs and safeties can limit damage.
- Big wrinkle: deciding whether to play Gonzalez in single coverage on JSN downfield (risky) or to use more two-man/quarters with safety help (safer vs. JSN’s vertical ability but can free crossers).
Patriots — offense strengths & weaknesses
- Strengths: Drake May’s ability to make tight-window downfield throws and to extend plays with his feet; solid receiving trio (Booty and Diggs highlighted as high catch-rate contributors); good scheming by McDaniels in creating quick, high-efficiency throws.
- Weaknesses: Extremely high postseason sack/pressure rate for May (15 sacks in postseason at time of discussion; pressure-to-sack numbers spiked) — left side protection and late decision-making/“trying for the big play” tendencies are concerns.
- The Patriots need quick rhythm, fast throws, and escape/extension plays from May — Seattle’s defense forces quick decisions and limits intended air yards.
- Running game is a potential neutralizer (heavy-gap power) but faces a tough Seattle nickel/dime run defense that defends the run well even with many DBs on the field.
Seahawks — defense strengths & plan
- Elite in nickel/dime vs. the run; forces many checkdowns and is superb at making opponents play fast or create explosive plays.
- Excellent edge defenders (Nwosu, Demarcus Lawrence-type impact) and good ability to funnel plays and hold teams to long drives rather than short touchdown drives.
- Approach vs. Patriots: limit short-field scoring by avoiding giving up short fields; make May beat them with extended plays or explosive throws — their scheme is built to make most offenses live inside a hard success window.
X-factors and situational elements
- Milton Williams availability and impact: Patriots’ rush metrics and run defense swing significantly with/without Williams.
- Sam Darnold’s pressure-sensitivity: huge splits between unpressured and pressured dropbacks — if he sees clean pockets, Seattle can win comfortably; if pressured, turnovers rise.
- Drake May’s scramble/extension ability: if he can escape the pocket and hit shots, Patriots can get explosives (May is a major path to an upset).
- Special teams flips: Marcus Jones and Rashid Jaheed are dangerous returners who can change field position quickly.
- Weather/venue: indoor/roofed stadium helps passing offenses (hosts noted Patriots would prefer climate-controlled environment).
- Coaching adjustments in-game — both coordinators (Clint Kubiak for Seattle, Josh McDaniels & the Patriots staff) are viewed as capable of impactful halftime/quarter adjustments.
Notable stats & soundbites pulled from the discussion
- Sam Darnold: top-10 EPA per unpressured dropbacks (6th); falls to ~24th under pressure. He led the league in turnover-worthy plays on pressured dropbacks at one point.
- Patriots pass-rush win rate drops ~10 percentage points without Milton Williams (a major swing).
- Seattle uses play-action at a very high rate out of 12 personnel — produces very large yards/play.
- On throws >10 yards to non-JSN Seahawks receivers, “wide open” rate ~20% (vs. 10% NFL average).
- Seahawks have an elite track record in dime vs. the run (hosts cited ~70% success rate in dime).
- Patriots red-zone defense had been poor (worst in football) as of the discussion — a vulnerability in short-field situations.
Game script scenarios (how each team wins)
- Seattle wins by:
- Winning first/second down, avoiding third-and-long, and forcing Patriots to play from behind.
- Using JSN gravity and 12-personnel play-action to create chunks.
- Getting early stops and not giving New England short fields.
- Patriots win by:
- Forcing turnovers/short fields (Sam Darnold turnovers would flip outcome).
- A 90th+ percentile performance from Drake May — quick releases, accurate tight-window throws, and effective scramble/extension plays.
- Taking advantage of matchups in 11-personnel (get Booty in the boundary vs. favorable corner matchups) and keeping pressure off their QB.
Picks, tone, and final takeaway
- Hosts leaned Seattle as the more likely winner — most ESPN picks were Seahawks-heavy in their sample.
- Predicted scores in the conversation varied (examples: 27–24 Seahawks, 16–13 Patriots; expectation of a low-scoring, tight first half was common).
- Final assessment: Seahawks favored, but the Patriots have a realistic upset path that requires turnovers/short fields and a big Drake May performance. Expect a chess match where situational coaching and a few pivotal plays decide the game.
What to watch during the broadcast
- Early down success for Seattle out of 12 personnel (does New England play nickel or bring base personnel?)
- How often Patriots choose to play Christian Gonzalez in single coverage vs. giving safety help — and whether JSN is motioned into the slot.
- Interior pressure on Darnold (Barmore/Williams impact) and how Seahawks handle blitz/disguise.
- Drake May’s pressure-to-sack rate early in the game; his scramble/extension plays and time-to-throw on deep shots.
- Special teams returns (Marcus Jones / Rashid Jaheed) and any early turnovers that create short fields.
Bottom line: expect a tight, tactical Super Bowl where Seattle’s play-action/11–12 personnel offense and defensive nickel/dime strength are slight favorites; New England can win if Drake May is elite and the Patriots force short fields/turnovers.