Talk Purdy to Me: A Divisional Round Preview

Summary of Talk Purdy to Me: A Divisional Round Preview

by ESPN, Omaha Productions, Mina Kimes

1h 18m•January 15, 2026
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Overview of Talk Purdy to Me: A Divisional Round Preview

Mina Kimes and guest Bill Barnwell preview all four NFL Divisional Round games (Bills–Broncos, 49ers–Seahawks, Texans–Patriots, Rams–Bears). The episode mixes game-by-game Xs and Os, roster/injury notes, matchup advantages, historical context, and final lean/picks. Main themes: how run game vs. man coverage will shape outcomes, the impact of disguise/play-action, quarterback mobility and quick-game timing, pass-rush pressure, and weather/special-teams as swing factors.

Key games discussed (short summaries + nutshell lean)

Bills vs. Broncos

  • Central idea: two very different QBs/teams (Josh Allen vs. Bo Nix) and defenses that uniquely challenge the opposing offense.
  • Matchup notes: Broncos have been an elite defense for much of the season but had a rough late stretch; Bills’ WR depth is thin (Brandon Cooks will be heavily leaned on).
  • Tactical expectations: Bills to emphasize run + quick passing (RPO/mesh concepts), Josh Allen scrambling against Denver’s man-heavy coverages; Broncos will try to run outside zone to exploit Buffalo’s weak run defense.
  • Lean/pick: Mina picks Buffalo (quarterback/hot-hand edge); Bill concurs that Bills should win (slightly favored Broncos at home on paper, but Buffalo’s QB play matters).

49ers vs. Seahawks

  • Central idea: Seattle’s defense dominated the Week 18 meeting (13–3), especially vs. SF play-action and the run.
  • Injury/availability impact: George Kittle out for the 49ers; Fred Warner status is a big potential game-changer (they discussed playing as though he’s out).
  • Tactical expectations: Seahawks will try to run (Kenneth Walker/Charbonnet) and exploit Niners linebackers/second level; Niners are limited without Kittle and were one-dimensional in that matchup (low air yards and no deep attempts).
  • Lean/pick: Bill (and Mina in the conversation) favor Seattle — Seattle is a matchup problem for the Niners, and SF needs an unlikely formula (short fields/special teams turnovers) to win.

Texans vs. Patriots

  • Central idea: Texans defense vs. Patriots offense — Texans’ front and pass rush are terrifying; Patriots must be explosive to score.
  • Injury/availability: Christian Gonzalez (Patriots CB) and Nico Collins (Texans WR) were in concussion protocol; Collins’ availability is huge for Houston’s attack (Stroud’s production drops without Collins).
  • Tactical expectations:
    • Texans: rely on pass-rush variety, QB scrambles (they’re vulnerable to QB runs), and 6-OL packages to create deep passing shots.
    • Patriots: must hit chunk plays downfield; they could blitz more if Collins is out. Weather (possible snow) could degrade passing for Stroud.
  • Lean/picks: Mina leans Texans (defensive dominance). Bill said he’d separate from Mina and lean Patriots — the hosts disagree; this is presented as the most split pick.

Rams vs. Bears

  • Central idea: weather/wind/cold may make this sloppier; Rams offense (Stafford + weapons) versus Bears’ suddenly improved defense — but matchup problems exist for Chicago in man.
  • Tactical expectations:
    • Rams likely to exploit Bears’ weak linebacker group and matchup Kyren/Nakua/Adams vs. Chicago corners (Kyler Gordon matchup decisions matter).
    • Bears can attack the Rams’ recent defensive cracks (play-action vulnerability, explosive outside zone running allowed by L.A.) and could force high-variance plays or turnovers.
  • Lean/pick: Both hosts pick the Rams (Mina explicitly takes L.A.), with caveats that a turnover-heavy, high-variance Bears result is plausible.

Top tactical themes / Xs & Os

  • Run game vs. run defense matters most: multiple previews emphasized how teams that can force or stop outside-zone/big-run plays will control tempo (Bills/Broncos, Rams/Bears, Seahawks-Niners).
  • Man coverage + disguised coverage:
    • Denver often plays man; Bills might use quick game and scrambles to exploit that.
    • Bills lead league in disguised coverage usage — can confuse Bo Nix or set up turnovers.
  • Quick/short passing for Josh Allen: Allen has evolved into an elite quick-game passer (2.5–3.3s timing); Buffalo will use quick game and RPOs to neutralize Denver’s man coverages.
  • Pass rush and pressure packages are decisive: Texans’ pass rush is a season-defining advantage; Patriots’ protection vs. Anderson/Hunter is a matchup to watch.
  • 6-OL and personnel legerdemain: Texans and others use 6-OL packages to create deep-shot opportunities; teams using 13/12 personnel matchup decisions (nickel vs base) shift game plans.
  • Quarterback mobility: QB scrambles (Allen, others) can change third-down dynamics; some defenses struggle to contain mobile QBs.
  • Special teams & weather: snow/wind in New England and Chicago will affect passing and kicking; special teams can flip these low-scoring matchups.

Notable injuries & roster items to monitor

  • Bills: wide receiver depth is very thin (Brandon Cooks expected to be relied upon heavily); Ed Oliver may return (upgrade inside). Linebacker rotations (Shaq Thompson, Darryl Byrd/Bernard) noted.
  • Broncos: Bo Nix’s consistency is the key question; defense strong but had a weak 4-game stretch late.
  • 49ers: George Kittle OUT — greatly reduces formation flexibility and play-action explosiveness; Trent Williams questionable (affects pass-pro).
  • 49ers/Seahawks: Fred Warner uncertain — his presence would materially alter SF run D.
  • Texans: Nico Collins and Christian Gonzalez in concussion protocol; Collins missing would be a big downshift for Stroud’s passing splits.
  • Patriots: interior OL concerns vs. elite Texans edge rushers; weather (possible 2+ inches of snow) could impact passing game.
  • Bears: T.J. Edwards (LB) out — impacts run fits and interior defense; left tackle on the field (Braxton Jones) for injured starter.

Notable quotes & insights

  • “The Bills want to run the ball. It really starts there.” — on Buffalo’s identity and blueprint vs. Denver.
  • “Texans’ defense was the single most dominant unit of any team [in the wild-card round].” — on Houston’s front and variety of pass-rush weapons.
  • “Seattle is a really bad matchup for the Niners.” — emphasis on Seahawks’ run defense and stopping SF play-action.
  • “If you're Sean Payton, you’re going so hard on the option/backfield runs.” — expectation for Broncos to attack Buffalo’s run defense.

Picks (where hosts landed)

  • Bills over Broncos — Mina (and Bill agreed Buffalo has the QB advantage).
  • Seahawks over 49ers — Bill (and Mina leaned same on matchup grounds).
  • Texans vs. Patriots — split: Mina picks Texans (defense), Bill leans Patriots (explosive plays / roster considerations). This is the most disagreed-upon game.
  • Rams over Bears — both hosts pick Rams.

What to watch during the games (actionable indicators)

  • Bills–Broncos:
    • Josh Allen quick game and scramble frequency; Bills’ ability to get ball to Cooks and run early.
    • Broncos run outside-zone success vs. Buffalo run defense (mismatch on YPC).
    • Pressure on Allen and injury reports for Bills WR depth.
  • 49ers–Seahawks:
    • Will Fred Warner play? If not, can SF stop the run? Kenneth Walker/Charbonnet explosiveness.
    • SF ability to stretch the field without Kittle; defensive ability of Seahawks against play-action.
  • Texans–Patriots:
    • Nico Collins and Christian Gonzalez clearance status.
    • How Patriots attack Houston’s blitz/pass-rush looks — chunk plays downfield vs. containment.
    • Weather impacts (snow) and its influence on passing and kicking.
  • Rams–Bears:
    • Bears’ approach to Stafford’s weapons in man coverage (Kyler Gordon matchups, who draws Puka/Adams).
    • Can Bears sustain base looks vs. Rams’ 13-personnel? Rams’ pass protection and ability to generate explosive plays.
    • Special teams, turnovers and how they swing a close game.

Bottom line / Final takeaways

  • Many Divisional games will hinge on run-game matchups and which defense forces opponents into uncomfortable personnel packages.
  • Pressure and disguise are decisive: Houston’s pass rush and Buffalo’s disguised coverage schemes matter as much as the headline QB matchups.
  • Late-season injury trends and game-weather (NE/Chi) are non-trivial — check final injury reports and forecasts before kickoff.
  • Games are expected to be low-to-moderate scoring, often decided by a handful of explosive plays, turnovers, or special-teams swings.

If you want a single-sentence recap: expect physical, run-oriented opening drives, defenses scheming to force quick throws or scrambles, and a handful of pivotal explosive plays (or turnovers) to decide each game.