Colt and Catch Fire! Previewing Week 12

Summary of Colt and Catch Fire! Previewing Week 12

by ESPN, Omaha Productions, Mina Kimes

1h 22m•November 20, 2025
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Overview of Colt and Catch Fire! Previewing Week 12

Hosts Mina Kimes and Luke Stern (guest from ESPN NFL Live) break down key matchups and matchup-specific keys for Week 12 of the NFL season. They focus on schematic advantages, injury impacts, pressure statistics, and strategic tendencies — and make picks (often split) for each game. The episode emphasizes run-game vulnerabilities, pass-rush/pressure advantages, and the importance of play-action and QB play under pressure.

Key themes and takeaways

  • Bills run defense is a major liability — especially versus offensive motion and misdirection. Buffalo is giving up explosive runs and struggling at all three levels.
  • Pressure and disguised blitzes are decisive this week: several defenses (Seahawks, Rams, Browns) get home with varied personnel and disguise, creating matchup leverage.
  • QB performance under pressure is a recurring concern: Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff both are notably worse when pressured this season; Josh Allen’s scrambling remains a trump card.
  • Play-action matters: teams that can establish the run and threaten play-action (Ravens, Panthers running schemes, Colts run game) can change game scripts and limit opponent pressure.
  • Injuries and availability (Lane Johnson for Eagles, Jamel Dean for Buccaneers, Bucky Irving for Bucs, Aaron Rodgers’ wrist) will swing matchups and game plans in multiple contests.
  • Coaching and schematic mismatch wins: coordinators who can get matchups (Mike McDonald in Seattle; Chris Shula and Rams staff getting production from low-cost players) influence outcomes beyond raw talent.

Game-by-game preview, key reads, and picks

(Host picks shown as Mina / Luke; where a clear final pick was ambiguous, note is given)

  • Thursday — Bills @ Texans

    • Key: Bills’ run defense (motion, misdirection); Texans should exploit with motion/runs and use Davis Mills’ mobility.
    • Notes: Texans’ defense historically gives Buffalo trouble; Allen is better vs zone than man; Texans can play man and try to pressure.
    • Picks: Luke = Texans / Mina = Bills (split lean, tight game).

  • Steelers @ Bears

    • Key: Attack the Steelers’ linebackers and use 12-personnel run fits; Bears have leaned two-T sets and improved outside-zone running.
    • Notes: QB availability (Aaron Rodgers’ wrist) matters — if Rodgers can’t go under center, Pittsburgh’s play-action/pass tempo is affected.
    • Picks: Both picked Bears (Chicago).

  • Patriots @ Bengals

    • Key: Patriots’ run game is trending; Bengals must test New England’s secondary in coverage (T. Higgins matchup vs Patriots DBs).
    • Notes: Pats are run-heavy/box-focused and vulnerable in secondary without a great pass rush.
    • Picks: Both picked Patriots.

  • Lions @ Giants

    • Key: Giants interior pressure vs Jared Goff — get home with stunts/twists; running off-tackle is an exploitable Giants weakness.
    • Notes: Detroit should run heavily (Gibbs/Montgomery) and keep Goff under duress.
    • Picks: Both picked Lions.

  • Vikings @ Packers

    • Key: Packers’ struggles to defend in-rhythm/intermediate passes; Vikings aim to force conservative playscript via run and short game.
    • Notes: J.J. McCarthy accuracy/timing is the primary concern; if Vikings force conservative game, they can win.
    • Picks: Both picked Packers.

  • Seahawks @ Titans

    • Key: Seattle’s overloaded and disguised pressures — schedule mismatch vs Titans O-line (many sacks allowed).
    • Notes: Seahawks’ pass rush wins from different spots and makes life hard for young/porous O-lines.
    • Picks: Both picked Seahawks.

  • Chiefs @ Colts

    • Key: Mahomes needs to hit deep shots and target Travis Kelce — Colts struggle covering tight ends; Colts want to establish off-tackle runs.
    • Notes: Injury/coverage (Sauce Gardner) and Colts strong run blocking make this a chess match.
    • Picks: Mina = Colts / Luke = Chiefs (split).

  • Jets @ Ravens

    • Key: Ravens must re-establish consistent quick game and limit sacks on Lamar; Jets’ linebackers can be exploited by play-action.
    • Notes: Lamar’s play under pressure has dropped dramatically from last year (sacks and QBR).
    • Picks: Both picked Ravens.

  • Browns @ Raiders

    • Key: Browns pass rush (Miles Garrett) vs Raiders offensive line — huge mismatch; Browns can create chaos and make Gardner/Bad O-line pay.
    • Notes: Raiders’ QB pressure problems make this a clear defensive edge for Cleveland.
    • Picks: Both picked Browns.

  • Jaguars @ Cardinals

    • Key: Jags’ offensive line/run game vs Cardinals (Cardinals are better vs pass than run); Jags should try to replicate their line-of-scrimmage advantage.
    • Notes: Cardinals’ pass catchers (Michael Wilson, McBride) have stepped up; Jags need O-line consistency.
    • Picks: Both picked Jaguars.

  • Eagles @ Cowboys (rematch)

    • Key: Availability of Lane Johnson (Eagles OL anchor) heavily alters Eagles’ offense; Cowboys pressure and intermediate throwing (Dak) are strengths.
    • Notes: Eagles’ offense looked stagnant vs Detroit; Cowboys have improved defensive front and can pressure Hurts.
    • Picks: Both picked Cowboys (late lean toward Dallas).

  • Falcons @ Saints

    • Key: Saints’ QB Tyler (or Shucker) quick release and ability to beat the Falcons’ blitz and pressure; Falcons are in disarray with major injuries and roster moves.
    • Notes: Saints rookie QB mobility and chunk plays vs an Atlanta team that’s struggled defensively.
    • Picks: Hosts debated; lean in conversation favored Saints given Falcons’ issues (pick was not firmly resolved on-air).

  • Rams @ Buccaneers

    • Key: Will Jamel Dean play? If not, Rams should attack Bucs’ linebackers and coverages — use 13-personnel/TEs against linebacker coverage.
    • Notes: Rams’ defense (low-cost roster) is thriving under scheme; Bucs could be dangerous if run game (Bucky Irving) returns.
    • Picks: Both picked Rams.

  • Monday — 49ers @ Panthers

    • Key: Which team can attack the opponent’s backup/deficient linebacker group? Shanahan will attack LB mismatches; Panthers’ run defense (Derrick Brown-led) is solid.
    • Notes: Bryce Young coming off a breakout performance — if he repeats it, Carolina can shock San Francisco; otherwise, Shanahan’s offense vs backup LBs favors 49ers.
    • Picks: Mina = Panthers / Luke = 49ers (split; see “what to watch”).

Notable insights & quotes

  • “Bills run defense with motion” — Buffalo is getting displaced at the line and off leverage, creating big run plays.
  • Patrick Mahomes “has to start connecting on those deep balls” — Kansas City needs to hit the vertical game versus Indy’s secondary.
  • “Mahomes has never lost three regular-season games in a row” (excluding the Super Bowl) — Streak context when assessing KC’s durability.
  • Seattle and LA (Rams) defenses show how scheme + evenly distributed edge pressure can make modestly-paid rosters elite in production.

What to watch (metrics & matchup indicators)

  • Bills: yards per carry allowed (explosive run rate) and linebacker/safety run fits against motion.
  • Packers/Vikings: McCarthy’s accuracy/timing vs Packers’ pressure rate and whether Flores forces a conservative script.
  • Chiefs/Colts: Mahomes deep completions (20+ yards) and Kelce targets; Colts’ success defending TEs (they rank poorly).
  • Browns/Raiders & Seahawks/Titans: pressures/sacks distribution (are pressures coming from different defenders or relying on one pass rusher?).
  • Rams/Bucs: Jamel Dean game status; Rams’ use of 13-personnel against Tampa’s linebacker matchups.
  • Panthers/49ers: Health/availability of linebackers (Fred Warner absence effect) and whether Bryce Young repeats high-efficiency quick-game accuracy.

Final notes

  • Mina Kimes and Luke Stern provide matchup-driven strategy — the episode is as much about schematics and situational tendencies as about simple “who wins.”
  • Several games are close or split picks — many outcomes hinge on injuries (OL, CBs, RBs) and whether QBs can function under pressure or off play-action.
  • Episode sponsors and production details were given (Nespresso, Blink, AT&T, Shopify, etc.) and the show is available on the Media Show channels and wherever you get podcasts.