Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview

Summary of Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview

by ESPN, Omaha Productions, Mina Kimes

1h 31m•July 22, 2026
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Overview of Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview

Mina Kimes and Hayden Winks break down the AFC West team by team, weighing offseason changes, scheme fit, roster construction, and likely 2025 outcomes. The main theme is that all four teams are interesting for very different reasons: the Chiefs may be due for positive regression, the Broncos may have the most complete roster, the Chargers are betting on a major offensive leap, and the Raiders are still building toward a more functional long-term setup.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were framed as the division’s most fragile contender: still good enough to make the playoffs, but with more volatility than usual.

Offense: talent, health, and regression

  • The biggest question is whether Kansas City’s offense can rebound after a historically unlucky 2024.
  • They were 1-9 in one-score games and dramatically underperformed their Pythagorean expectation.
  • The run game was criticized as far worse than its surface numbers suggested.
  • The addition of Kenneth Walker III is viewed as a major attempt to add explosiveness and unlock more efficiency.
  • The passing game remains a work in progress:
    • Rashee Rice is productive, especially vs. zone, but limited vs. man coverage.
    • Xavier Worthy needs a real Year 2 leap after an injury-impacted rookie year.
    • Travis Kelce is still useful, but clearly declining as a true separator.
  • There was discussion that Kansas City may need to evolve toward more under-center play, play action, and a better run-game identity.

Defense: younger, deeper, still Spagnuolo-led

  • The defense is largely being retooled around Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
  • The draft emphasis was on adding juice and depth to the front and rebuilding the secondary.
  • Mansoor Delane was highlighted as an ideal, pro-ready corner for Steve Spagnuolo’s system.
  • The main concern is whether the new pieces can replace what Kansas City lost in veteran stability.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos were treated as the most complete team in the division and a legitimate Super Bowl-caliber roster.

Offense: Jalen Waddle changes the ceiling

  • The addition of Jalen Waddle was framed as one of the best moves of the offseason.
  • Waddle is seen as the kind of receiver who can help Bo Nix improve in the exact areas where he struggled:
    • throwing between the numbers
    • producing after the catch
    • creating more explosive passing plays
  • The Broncos already had:
    • a strong offensive line
    • a good play caller in Sean Payton
    • a quarterback with enough mobility and arm strength to grow
  • The concern is whether Bo Nix can take the next step in accuracy and middle-of-field processing.

Running game: useful, but messy

  • The backfield is viewed as confusing for fantasy and somewhat unsettled in real life.
  • J.K. Dobbins, R.J. Harvey, and Jonah Coleman could form a committee.
  • The staff appears to want a more stable, balanced run game, but nobody in the group is a perfect fit.

Defense: elite, with one notable concern

  • Denver’s defense remains one of the best in football, especially in the secondary and at linebacker.
  • The biggest worry is edge depth, especially with uncertainty around Nik Bonitto.
  • Even so, the front seven is still strong enough, and the secondary is deep enough, to keep this unit in the top tier.
  • The overall takeaway: if the offense hits, the Broncos could be a real AFC threat.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were the hardest team to judge because their offense has huge upside, but the transition in coaching and personnel adds risk.

Offense: high ceiling, but a lot has to go right

  • The offense is being built around a Shanahan-style system, motion, and conflict creation.
  • The discussion emphasized that Justin Herbert was often hampered by protection issues and too many free rushers.
  • If the new structure works, the offense could jump dramatically.
  • Key pieces:
    • Omarion Hampton as a potentially huge difference-maker
    • Ladd McConkey as a rebound candidate
    • Quentin Johnston as a possible secondary beneficiary
  • Concerns:
    • new interior offensive line pieces
    • need for cohesion early in the season
    • uncertainty about how quickly the scheme and quarterback timing mesh

McConkey and Herbert

  • McConkey’s rookie-year production was praised, but last season’s dip was tied to:
    • a lower catchable-ball rate
    • fewer first-read targets
    • more competition from Keenan Allen
  • Herbert’s best throws came when the ball came out quickly; if the new offense preserves that, the offense could take off.

Defense: likely still good, but maybe not elite

  • The loss of Jesse Minter is the biggest variable.
  • The new coordinator, Chris O’Leary, comes from a strong coaching tree, but the unit may regress slightly from its recent overachievement.
  • The defense still has enough talent to stay above average, especially against the run and in the secondary.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were presented as a team in transition: more functional, but still not complete enough to be a contender.

Offense: the long-term play is Mendoza and Bowers

  • The core issue is whether Fernando Mendoza can be developed without being overwhelmed.
  • The offensive line and run game need to be good enough to prevent him from constant long-yardage situations.
  • Brock Bowers was the biggest offensive bright spot:
    • viewed as a true star
    • likely to be fed heavily
    • one of the few players on the roster who can carry volume like a number-one target
  • Ashton Jeanty was seen as a very good back, but maybe not the transcendent, all-purpose offensive weapon some expected.
  • The receiving group was criticized as thin and awkwardly constructed.

Run game and line play

  • The Raiders are expected to run heavily, but the line is still a major question.
  • There’s hope that coaching changes and better bodies make the unit functional, but the floor remains low.

Defense: improved, but still incomplete

  • The defense got better depth and more structure.
  • Additions like Quay Walker, N’Kobe Dean, Taron Johnson, and edge help were viewed as meaningful.
  • Maxx Crosby remains the anchor, though there was concern about his workload and long-term future.
  • Success on defense means:
    • one or two young players hitting
    • linebacker play stabilizing
    • the secondary holding together better than last year

Final AFC West Ranking and Takeaways

Projected division order

  1. Broncos
  2. Chargers
  3. Chiefs
  4. Raiders

Main takeaway

  • Both hosts ultimately felt the division is strong enough that all three of the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs could make the playoffs.
  • The Broncos were the clearest No. 1 because of roster completeness.
  • The Chargers have the most obvious offensive upside if Herbert and the new scheme click.
  • The Chiefs remain dangerous because of Patrick Mahomes, regression potential, and Spagnuolo’s defense.
  • The Raiders are improved, but still seem a year or two away from being truly dangerous.

Bottom line

The AFC West is extremely top-heavy and volatile. The Broncos may have the best all-around roster, the Chargers may have the most explosive offensive upside, and the Chiefs may be the hardest team to confidently write off. The Raiders look better, but mostly as a team building toward future relevance rather than immediate contention.