The Most Expensive Midterms Ever

Summary of The Most Expensive Midterms Ever

by The Wall Street Journal & Spotify Studios

19m•October 27, 2026
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Overview of The Most Expensive Midterms Ever

This episode of The Journal examines the record-setting money pouring into the midterm elections, why campaign spending keeps climbing, and how weak regulation is making it harder to track who is funding modern political influence. The discussion focuses on super PACs, dark money, big-name donors, and the growing role of online tactics like influencers and AI in election spending.

Key Takeaways

  • The midterms are on pace to be the most expensive political cycle ever, with total ad spending estimated at more than $11 billion.
  • In the last two weeks alone, voters were expected to see over $1 billion in TV ads.
  • Wealthy individuals and interest groups are increasingly shaping races through super PACs and outside spending, not just direct campaign donations.
  • A major concern is that oversight is weakening just as spending is becoming more opaque and aggressive.

Where the Money Is Coming From

Big Donors and Mega-Spending

  • Elon Musk is cited as the largest single spender in this cycle, reportedly putting upwards of $440 million into Republican races.
  • Musk’s money is especially visible in the Texas Senate race, where he is backing Republican efforts to keep the state red.
  • On the Democratic side, familiar megadonors like George Soros and Michael Bloomberg are still influential.
  • Bloomberg in particular is described as a late-cycle donor who stepped in when Democrats were short on resources.

New and Issue-Driven Donors

  • Democrats are also seeing a wave of new donors, especially progressives motivated by the war in Gaza.
  • Some of these donors are giving to groups positioned as anti-AIPAC alternatives.
  • The episode notes that this reflects a broader trend of people being drawn to individual candidates and cause-driven campaigns rather than party institutions.

High-Profile Races and Industry Influence

Texas Senate Race

  • The episode highlights the race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as a key example of outside money influencing a major contest.
  • Musk’s involvement is framed as a strategic attempt to protect Republican control in Texas.

Ohio Senate Race and Crypto Spending

  • A major example of industry influence is crypto, which is spending heavily through the super PAC Fairshake.
  • Fairshake reportedly poured around $50 million into the Ohio Senate race to oppose Sherrod Brown and help Brown’s opponent, John Husted.
  • The segment suggests crypto sees elections as a way to shape regulation in its favor.

How Campaign Finance Really Works Now

Direct Donations vs. Outside Spending

  • Direct contributions to candidates are still capped in the low thousands.
  • But donors can give much larger sums to super PACs and other outside groups, which can then spend in support of a candidate.
  • The old norm that super PACs had to appear strictly separate from campaigns has eroded.

More Loopholes, More Opacity

  • Super PACs often receive money through LLCs and other shell entities, making the true source harder to trace.
  • One analysis cited in the episode found nearly $400 million in dark money flowed to super PACs this cycle across both parties.
  • This means the public often sees spending totals without knowing who is actually behind the money.

Why Oversight Is Failing

The FEC’s Broken State

  • The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is described as the main watchdog for campaign finance.
  • It is supposed to have six members, but it needs four commissioners to make decisions.
  • At the time of the episode, the FEC had been without a quorum for a long stretch, leaving it unable to fully do its job.

Citizens United and the Long Decline

  • The episode links the current environment to Citizens United, which helped normalize large-scale independent political spending.
  • The broader point: campaign finance rules have gradually weakened, while enforcement has become less effective.

New Frontiers: Influencers and AI

  • Campaigns are increasingly spending money on social media influencers, often through management firms rather than transparent disclosures.
  • There are few clear rules requiring influencers to label paid political content.
  • The episode also raises emerging concerns about AI in political messaging, including:
    • AI-generated robocalls
    • AI-driven text messaging
    • Other forms of synthetic campaign content

Main Insight

The episode argues that today’s political money race is not just about how much is being spent, but about how less transparent, more decentralized, and less regulated that spending has become. The result is a system where huge sums can influence politics, but not always in predictable or decisive ways.

Bottom Line

  • Campaign spending is at historic highs.
  • Super PACs and dark money dominate the landscape.
  • Industry groups and ultra-wealthy donors are playing a larger role than ever.
  • Regulatory oversight is weak or stalled.
  • More money does not always guarantee political success, but it can still shift the terrain of elections and policy battles.