Overview of Make Money Not War: Trump’s Plan for Peace in Ukraine
This episode (The Wall Street Journal & Spotify Studios, hosted by Jessica Mendoza, Dec. 5) investigates a novel — and controversial — U.S. diplomatic approach toward ending the Russia–Ukraine war: negotiating peace by folding business deals and sanctions relief into the settlement. Reporting (Drew Hinshaw, Joe Parkinson and colleagues) traces private meetings between businessmen and sanctioned Russian officials, a leaked 28-point plan that largely echoes Russian demands, and the strain this business-first strategy has placed on U.S.–European relations.
Key players
- Steve Witkoff — U.S. real-estate tycoon, Trump associate and informal negotiator on Russia; officially Special Envoy to the Middle East. Became de facto U.S. interlocutor with Russia.
- Kirill Dmitriev — Head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund (sanctioned in 2022); speaks the language of investment and pitched commercial opportunities to U.S. counterparts.
- Jared Kushner — Mentioned as one of three men at the Miami meeting that kicked off the private peace-drafting effort.
- U.S. administration (Trump) — Pushed for an end to the war and enabled meetings, including sanction relief for Dmitriev’s U.S. visit.
- Ukrainian and European leaders — Largely sidelined or alarmed by the private, commercial-inflected approach.
- Business actors positioning to re-enter Russia — Examples include investor Gentry Beach (Novatek Arctic gas interest) and major firms like ExxonMobil (previous contacts with Rosneft).
Narrative / timeline (concise)
- October (previous year): A private Miami meeting of businessmen (including Dmitriev, Kushner, Witkoff) began drafting a peace plan that married territorial concessions and sanctions relief with business opportunities.
- Spring–Summer: Witkoff and Dmitriev deepen ties. Dmitriev visits the U.S. after the administration temporarily lifts restrictions, presenting investment opportunities (energy, minerals).
- August (Anchorage summit): Trump–Putin meeting discussed commercial ties but produced no deal; summit ended early.
- Leak: A 28-point plan (originating from the Miami work) leaks; European and Ukrainian leaders criticize it as favoring Russian demands (limiting Ukraine’s military, blocking NATO path, ceding territory).
- Recent talks: U.S. hosted talks to revise the plan; Russia rejected changes meant to better safeguard Ukrainian interests. No agreement reached.
Core idea: “Peace through business”
- The administration’s strategy treats economic reintegration and commercial prospects with Russia as central levers to secure and stabilize peace.
- The concept: make Russia a business partner (energy, rare earths, minerals), thereby creating mutual economic cost to renewed conflict.
- This approach deliberately fuses diplomatic negotiation and commercial incentives — business deals are not merely post-peace rewards but integral to the negotiation framework.
Business interests and sanctions
- Dmitriev pitched a broad “buffet” of opportunities: energy exports, minerals/rare earths, and other sectors that would be valuable to U.S. and global markets.
- Several private investors and corporations are quietly positioning to re-enter lucrative Russian energy projects — many deals would require U.S./UK sanctions relief.
- Examples: Gentry Beach’s talks to partner with Novatek on an Arctic gas project; earlier reporting of ExxonMobil’s contact with Rosneft.
- Many interested parties have ties to the Trump circle (donors, acquaintances), raising conflict-of-interest and favoritism concerns.
Reactions and controversies
- Europe and Ukraine: Strongly alarmed. The leaked plan was described as echoing Russian talking points and violating Ukrainian “red lines.” European leaders decried the lack of consultation and warned that the plan would reward aggression.
- Political risk: European leaders asked whether the U.S. remains a reliable alliance partner. Poland’s PM summarized the sentiment: “This is not about peace. It’s about business.”
- Diplomatic norms: Critics argue this bypasses traditional diplomacy (Witkoff declined secure channels; Europeans struggled for access) and privileges private actors and business incentives over collective security and Ukrainian sovereignty.
- Strategic ambiguity: Debate on whether integrating business will constrain Putin or simply give Russia economic relief while he pursues territorial aims.
Outcomes and current status
- No peace agreement yet. Recent U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine talks failed to produce a deal; Putin rejected proposed revisions intended to better reflect Ukrainian interests.
- The administration continues to push a market-centered, business-integrated peace approach, but its effectiveness and legitimacy remain contested.
Main takeaways / implications
- The Trump administration is experimenting with unconventional diplomacy that uses commercial re-engagement as a bargaining chip.
- If adopted, this approach could reshape the post-war economic map (energy and minerals access) — but only if sanctions are lifted and a political settlement is reached.
- The strategy risks deepening rifts between the U.S. and European allies, who fear rewarding territorial conquest and losing leverage.
- Business-driven negotiations could benefit specific investors and companies (many with Trump ties), raising ethics and geopolitical concerns.
- History suggests economic interdependence has not reliably constrained Russian aggression; whether U.S.-led commercial ties would differ remains uncertain.
Notable quotes & framing
- “They’re fusing this idea that business should not be something which follows a peace deal, but something which should be integrated into the negotiation itself.”
- Polish prime minister: “We know this is not about peace. It’s about business.”
- Dmitriev (pitching cooperation): Russia and the U.S., “who competed to get to the moon… can cooperate together and help Elon Musk reach Mars.”
What to watch next
- Further rounds of U.S.–Russia and U.S.–Ukraine negotiations and whether changes to the plan satisfy Kyiv.
- Any bilateral or multilateral decisions on sanctions relief tied to a peace framework.
- Public disclosures or contracts showing Western companies re-entering sanctioned Russian sectors.
- European responses and possible diplomatic rifts within NATO and the broader Western alliance.
Reporting & production
- Episode reporting led by Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson, with additional reporting by Benoit Faucon, Rebecca Ballhaus, Thomas Grove, and a Wall Street Journal team.
- Host: Jessica Mendoza. Produced by The Journal (WSJ & Spotify Studios).