Strait and narrowing: the Houthis’ striking advance

Summary of Strait and narrowing: the Houthis’ striking advance

by The Economist

22m•September 14, 2026
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Overview of The Intelligence by The Economist

This episode covers three distinct but connected stories: the Houthis’ unexpected military gains in Yemen and the regional oil-security implications; a data-driven look at how Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition is already fraying ahead of the midterms; and a culture segment on the rise of “nepo babies” in Hollywood and why the industry keeps rewarding family connections.

Houthis’ Advance in Yemen and the Regional Fallout

What happened

  • The Iran-backed Houthi movement made a sharp advance along Yemen’s western coast.
  • They captured Moka and Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
  • There was also an attack on a major Saudi oil pipeline, adding to the sense of escalation.

Why it matters

  • This is the most significant shift in the Yemen war in years.
  • It humiliates Saudi Arabia, which had been signaling confidence about a renewed offensive against the Houthis.
  • It strengthens Iran’s leverage in its wider confrontation with the U.S. and its allies.
  • It could push oil prices higher by threatening shipping routes and energy infrastructure.

The deeper explanation

  • The Houthis are stronger than they were early in the war, helped by Iranian support.
  • But the bigger story is the weakness of their opponents:
    • Anti-Houthi forces are fragmented.
    • They include separatists, tribal militias, and Islamist factions that do not trust one another.
    • The split between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has worsened that disunity.
  • Many anti-Houthi fighters reportedly retreated in disorder, underscoring the lack of coordination.

Outlook

  • Foreign help for Saudi Arabia looks unlikely:
    • Turkey and Pakistan have not offered meaningful support.
    • The U.S. is reluctant to carry out direct airstrikes.
  • The Houthis may try to expand further, including toward Marib, home to much of Yemen’s oil industry.
  • The episode emphasizes that this is still a long, unstable war, with no clear end in sight.

Donald Trump’s Coalition Is Fraying

The main finding

  • Using a large polling database built with YouGov, The Economist finds that Trump’s 2024 winning coalition is breaking apart.
  • Voters who backed him in 2024 are increasingly considering other options or staying home.

Why Trump is losing support

  • Inflation and tariffs:
    • Trump’s tariff policies were deeply unpopular.
    • Around 72% of Americans think tariffs increased prices.
    • 64% disapprove of his handling of tariffs.
  • The Iran war:
    • Voters also blame the war for contributing to higher prices and instability.
    • 57% say the war was a mistake.
    • Only 25% say it was the right decision.
  • His approval rating has fallen to its weakest levels in the YouGov series.

Which voters are moving

  • Young voters and ethnic minorities who backed Trump in 2024 are drifting away.
  • Estimated share now leaning Democratic:
    • 10% of Black Trump voters
    • 7% of Hispanic Trump voters
    • 5% of white voters under 30
  • More traditional Republican voters, especially middle-aged white voters, are less likely to switch directly to Democrats, but many may abstain or become undecided.

What it means for the midterms

  • The Senate looks like a coin toss.
  • Democrats’ chances will depend heavily on candidate quality in competitive states like:
    • Alaska
    • Iowa
    • Ohio
  • The key question is whether Democrats can persuade disillusioned Trump voters that they are a better option than continued Republican control.

Nepotism in Hollywood

The core argument

  • The episode closes with a look at “nepo babies” — children of entertainment insiders who get major opportunities in film and TV.

What the research shows

  • About 28% of young American actors in films over the last 25 years had a parent in entertainment.
  • The share of roles going to nepo babies has more than doubled.
  • In major films over the last 25 years, about 70% had a nepo baby in a key creative role, including writing and directing.

Why it happens

  • Lower barriers to entry in the digital era mean gatekeepers rely more on existing networks.
  • Famous names are also valuable for marketing and publicity.
  • Hollywood is an industry where access is scarce and the rewards are huge, so family connections can matter a lot.

Counterpoint

  • Some argue that children who grow up around the industry may understand it better and know what they’re getting into.
  • Others say access may help open the door, but talent still has to carry them through it.

Key Takeaways

  • The Houthis’ advance is less about sudden Houthi strength than about the disarray of their enemies.
  • The Yemen escalation is now feeding directly into oil-market anxiety and broader Saudi-Iran tensions.
  • Trump’s 2024 coalition looks less durable than Republicans hoped, with inflation, tariffs, and the Iran war eroding support.
  • Hollywood nepotism remains entrenched because access, branding, and legacy networks continue to shape who gets opportunities.