Power ballot: Japanese PM’s electoral gamble

Summary of Power ballot: Japanese PM’s electoral gamble

by The Economist

23m•January 20, 2026
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Overview of Power ballot: Japanese PM’s electoral gamble

This episode of The Intelligence (The Economist) covers three main stories: Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi, calling a snap lower‑house election less than 100 days into her term; the landmark UN High Seas biodiversity treaty that aims to protect international waters; and how the boom in GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs is changing restaurant menus (especially high‑end establishments). The episode includes reporting and analysis from The Economist’s East Asia and environment desks and features examples from the London and New York dining scenes.

Japan: a high‑risk snap election called by Prime Minister Takaichi

  • Context
    • Prime Minister Takaichi (Japan’s first female PM in the programme’s account) dissolved parliament and called a lower‑house election for 8 February — the shortest post‑war campaign.
    • She said she wanted a direct mandate from voters; politically, she’s trying to consolidate power while personally popular.
  • Why this is a gamble
    • Takaichi’s personal approval ratings are unusually high (~70% or more in many polls; >90% among voters under 30), largely driven by style, plain speaking and high‑profile foreign diplomacy.
    • Her party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), remains much less popular and holds only a slim one‑seat majority in the lower house.
  • Opposition landscape
    • Centrist realignment: the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito (the LDP’s former coalition partner) have formed a Centrist Reform Alliance — Komeito’s mobilising power (linked to Soka Gakkai) could swing close districts.
    • Populist/upstart forces: Democratic Party for the People (centrist‑populist economics) and Sanseito (the hard‑right “Do‑It‑Yourself Party”) remain present and could influence outcomes, though their support has dipped since Takaichi took office.
  • Stakes and likely outcomes
    • The LDP is unlikely to lose power outright; the key is margin. A stronger LDP majority would give Takaichi a freer hand on big spending, industrial policy, and security/defence reforms.
    • Markets have reacted: equities rose on expectations of fiscal expansion, while long‑term bond yields climbed to near‑30‑year highs.
    • Risk: if the gamble fails, Japan’s politics could grow more unstable and resume the recent pattern of short, revolving premierships.
  • What to watch
    • Size of LDP’s seat share (does it regain a clear majority alone?)
    • Performance and seat distribution of the Centrist Reform Alliance vs. upstart parties
    • Market moves in stocks and bond yields during and after the election

The High Seas treaty: Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Agreement

  • What was agreed
    • A UN treaty to protect biodiversity in international waters (the “high seas”) was signed by 145 countries.
    • Key provisions: shared scientific knowledge and marine genetic resources, mandatory environmental impact assessments for activities that may affect the high seas, and the creation/designation of large marine protected areas (MPAs) where fishing and extraction would be barred.
  • Why it matters
    • Up till now, the high seas were largely unprotected (MPAs covered <1%); fisheries organisations’ patchwork rules failed to stop overfishing and destructive practices like bottom trawling.
    • Oceans are vital: major carbon sink, crucial climate buffer, and home to phytoplankton that produce a large share of Earth’s oxygen.
  • Challenges and limitations
    • Enforcement, governance and bureaucracy remain big hurdles.
    • Not all major actors have signed (notably, at the time of the report, the U.S. had not joined).
    • Practical implementation will require coordination, funding, and political will to create large, networked MPAs.
  • Takeaway
    • The treaty marks important multilateral progress after decades of scientific warnings, but converting the agreement into effective protection and enforcement will be the hard next step.

Weight‑loss drugs (GLP‑1 agonists) are reshaping restaurant menus

  • The trend
    • Use of GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs surged: global spending in 2024 was about US$54 billion. Rough prevalence reported: ~1 in 8 U.S. adults have used GLP‑1s; 4–7% of adults in Britain.
    • These drugs suppress appetite by mimicking satiety hormones, reducing food and drink intake.
  • How restaurants are adapting
    • Fine‑dining venues are offering “feel‑good” or mindful menus with tiny, luxury bites (example: Otto’s in London selling a feel‑good menu at £190) and The Fat Duck offering mindful options.
    • Casual and chain restaurants are responding too: mini meals or “GLP‑friendly” menus (examples from New York) that shrink portions but keep premium ingredients.
  • Economics and consumer behaviour
    • Current GLP‑1 users skew middle/high income and often plan to dine out only on special occasions, but they’re willing to pay premiums for high‑quality ingredients even at much smaller portions.
    • Restaurants could maintain revenues by charging proportionately higher markups on smaller, better‑sourced plates.
    • Wider adoption is possible if costs fall (e.g., policy or pharma deals to lower prices), which could push portion control into mainstream dining.
  • Broader implication
    • The trend is prompting a re‑evaluation of “portion inflation” and could accelerate moves toward smaller portions, priced and positioned as premium experiences.

Notable quotes and insights

  • On the election: Takaichi — “I wanted to let the people of Japan decide whether or not I should be prime minister.” (summarised)
  • On the high seas: The ocean is “the common heritage of mankind” and protecting it requires big, networked MPAs and shared science.
  • On dining trends: Shrinking portions combined with premium pricing is an existing retail strategy that can translate to restaurants as GLP‑1 use grows.

Bottom line / Takeaways

  • Japan’s snap election is a calculated gamble by a personally popular prime minister to turn personal approval into a stronger parliamentary mandate — outcome will shape fiscal, industrial and defence policy and move markets.
  • The High Seas treaty is a significant diplomatic achievement to protect biodiversity beyond national jurisdictions, but implementation and enforcement will determine its real impact.
  • The GLP‑1 weight‑loss drug boom is altering eating habits and creating a commercial opportunity for restaurants to sell smaller, higher‑priced dishes — a change that could spread if drug access broadens.