Nukes of hazard: US-Russia arms treaty expires

Summary of Nukes of hazard: US-Russia arms treaty expires

by The Economist

24m•February 5, 2026
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Overview of The Intelligence from The Economist

This episode (hosts Rosie Bloor and Jason Palmer) covers three main stories: the expiry of the New START nuclear-arms treaty between the US and Russia and the implications for a renewed arms race; how the internet is transforming cult recruitment and activity; and a lighter but revealing piece on why increasing numbers of young men are getting hair transplants. The show mixes analysis (Anton LaGuardia on arms control), reporting (Carla Subarana on online cults), and a human-interest investigation (Jason Palmer on hair transplants).

New START treaty expires — what happened and why it matters

  • Background

    • New START was signed in 2010 (Obama–Medvedev) and limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, with mutual verification measures.
    • The treaty allowed only one 5-year extension; Joe Biden used that extension once. It now expires after 15 years.
    • Verification measures have been largely suspended since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; both sides curtailed inspections in 2023.

  • Why it couldn’t simply be extended

    • Legally limited to one extension; Russia suggested informal extension but the US did not accept.
    • The Ukraine war and Moscow’s use of nuclear threats degraded trust and verification.

  • Strategic consequences

    • The end of New START ends a key constraint on US and Russian deployed arsenals and supervision.
    • Short term: both sides can “upload” warheads from reserve to deployed systems; but the US lacks rapid production capacity for large expansions.
    • Broader instability: China’s rapid arsenal growth (roughly 240 warheads in 2012 → ~600 now; possibly >1,000 by 2030) complicates two-party arms control.
    • Risk of cascading regional proliferation: India/Pakistan, US allies considering national deterrents if they doubt extended deterrence.
    • Three-way arms control (US–Russia–China) is very difficult politically and technically; unlikely unless China opts into arms-control diplomacy or a major crisis prompts cooperative restraint.

  • Doctrinal differences

    • China historically favored “minimal deterrence” (survive first strike and retaliate).
    • US/Russia doctrines include “damage limitation” (target opponent’s nuclear forces), which can drive quantitative arms competition.

  • Possible ways forward

    • New negotiations are possible but hard; would require re‑establishing verification and building trust, and likely a willingness by China to engage.
    • A crisis (e.g., a near‑catastrophic confrontation) could also create pressure for new controls, as happened after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Online cults: scale, how they operate, and responses

  • Key points and trends

    • The internet has changed cult recruitment: online forums, games, social platforms, and messaging apps let groups find and groom vulnerable people quickly and covertly.
    • Numbers appear to be rising: the International Cultic Studies Association tracks ~4,000 groups (vs ~2,000 in the 1980s); France recorded ~4,500 suspected-cult reports in 2024.

  • How modern cults work online

    • Four commonly accepted features of cults:
      1. Charismatic leadership claiming exclusive access to truth/power.
      2. A belief system promising transformation or special status.
      3. Systems of control that erode autonomy (rules, rituals, increasing dependence).
      4. Social pressure and punishment for leaving (ostracism).
    • Digital platforms reproduce these features: influencers as leaders, closed chats for control, algorithmic reinforcement of group narratives, and tasks/tested loyalty (examples include grooming children via Roblox → Discord, encouraging self-harm to prove allegiance).

  • Harms demonstrated

    • Psychological control, sexual abuse, financial exploitation, and instances where children were encouraged to self-harm or to perform dangerous tasks.
    • Difficulty prosecuting coercion/psychological manipulation—many jurisdictions require demonstrable criminal acts (forced labor, rape, child abuse).

  • Legal and policy responses

    • Variation by country:
      • France and Belgium have laws criminalizing psychological manipulation.
      • Spain has statutes but higher thresholds for action.
      • US and UK prioritize freedom of belief, intervening typically when explicit crimes occur.
    • Challenges: laws against “mental manipulation” risk chilling legitimate religious or alternative communities; proving coercion to juries is hard.

  • Prevention and recommendations

    • Emphasis on prevention and public education (parallels drawn with campaigns addressing gender violence).
    • Schools, media, and public-awareness programs should explain mechanisms of psychological manipulation.
    • Platforms and parents should watch for grooming behaviors and hidden recruitment pathways in games and closed chat apps.

Hair transplants and male body image

  • Summary of reporting

    • Jason Palmer investigated the rise in hair transplants among young men (including a reporting trip to Turkey).
    • Drivers include image-focused dating apps, pervasive advertising for hair-restoration products, and cultural pressure around appearance.

  • Findings and listener feedback

    • Many women say hair matters far less than personality; dating apps, by forcing visual first impressions, amplify appearance-based anxiety.
    • A common insight: the psychological distress often comes from the process of losing hair (“going bald”) rather than the end state of being bald. Some men who shave their heads feel liberated and more confident.
    • Community views vary: some advocate embracing baldness; others pursue surgical or medical interventions.

  • Takeaways

    • The internet (ads, targeted marketing) intensifies insecurity and funnels people toward cosmetic solutions.
    • Personal outcomes differ: some find confidence in acceptance, others benefit from medical procedures—decision is individual but shaped by social and commercial pressures.

Notable quotes and insights

  • “One nuclear weapon is one too many.” — captures the moral intuition vs military calculus tension.
  • “The number of cults is rising.” — summary of observed trend and growth of online groups.
  • “The problem isn’t baldness, the problem is balding.” — a recurrent sentiment explaining why men seek transplants.
  • Practical insight: digital spaces can reproduce leadership, belief, control and pressure—core cult dynamics—yet at scale and with greater invisibility.

Actionable recommendations (from episode themes)

  • For policymakers (arms control)
    • Rebuild verification mechanisms or negotiate new limits that reflect multipolar realities, including incentives to bring China in.
    • Preserve and reassure allies about extended deterrence to reduce incentives to proliferate regionally.
  • For platform companies and regulators (online cults)
    • Improve moderation of grooming behaviors on games and chat apps; enhance transparency and reporting tools for closed channels like Discord.
    • Support public-awareness campaigns about manipulation tactics.
  • For individuals and communities
    • Be wary of groups demanding secrecy, escalating commitment, or financial/sexual exploitation.
    • Encourage education (schools, media) about coercion and recruitment techniques.
    • On body image: critically assess commercial messaging; consider psychological support before elective surgery.

Guests, episodes and further listening

  • Hosts: Rosie Bloor and Jason Palmer.
  • Contributors: Anton LaGuardia (diplomatic editor), Carla Subarana (news editor), Laura Merino (psychologist), Sam Westron (producer).
  • Mentioned content: The Economist’s subscriber series “The Bomb” (four-part) for deeper reporting on US nuclear modernization; Weekend Intelligence episode on hair transplants.
  • Note: episode contains commercial breaks and sponsor segments (Big O’ Tires, Dell, Salt Lake Community College).