Clutching at shahs: Iran’s would-be revolutionary

Summary of Clutching at shahs: Iran’s would-be revolutionary

by The Economist

26m•January 16, 2026
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Overview of Clutching at shahs: Iran’s would-be revolutionary

This episode of The Economist’s The Intelligence covers three main stories. The lead piece examines Iran’s unrest and an in-depth interview with Reza Pahlavi — the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch — who positions himself as a possible post‑regime leader. Two shorter segments follow: a data‑driven discussion on whether buying or renting a home is currently smarter, and an obituary profile of Aldrich Ames, the CIA officer who sold secrets to the KGB.

Iran, protests and Reza Pahlavi

  • Context

    • Large anti‑regime protests in Iran have escalated into what many describe as a revolution: thousands reportedly executed, mass arrests, and heavy crackdowns.
    • Information flow into and out of Iran has been aided by Starlink but the regime is trying to throttle internet access.
    • The U.S. signalled a possible hard line (carrier strike group movement, talk of strikes), then sent mixed messages—President Trump publicly suggested killings were stopping and said there was no plan for executions, which surprised Pahlavi during the interview.

  • Reza Pahlavi’s position and claims

    • Pahlavi presents himself as a unifying, polished alternative to the Islamic Republic and argues this moment is the closest he’s come in 46 years to returning.
    • He expects foreign (notably American) intervention or at least international pressure to prevent mass slaughter; he repeatedly described protesters as “sacrificial lambs” waiting for cavalry.
    • He proposes a short transitional government (six months) to stabilize the country, followed by a referendum (after four months) on monarchy vs republic—he says he would respect the result.
    • He claims willingness to incorporate existing security forces (including IRGC elements) into a new national army to maintain order.

  • Skepticism and obstacles

    • Interviewers and analysts flagged several doubts: Pahlavi’s past image as disorganized; the difficulty of selling a return to a monarchy to a population that has suffered under the current regime; and resistance from secular, educated opposition figures who could oppose any Pahlavi comeback.
    • The regime’s credibility is deeply damaged; some inside it may seek to replace hardline leadership with a more stabilizing figure, but massive bloodshed complicates any negotiated transition.
    • Practical governance challenges (keeping utilities, services, public order) create a temporary power vacuum that could be exploited—but also make any takeover highly risky and contested.
    • Mixed U.S. messaging raises uncertainty about the external support Pahlavi assumes is necessary.

  • Key takeaway

    • Pahlavi is positioning himself as a potential transitional leader and focal point for parts of the opposition; however, deep political divides inside Iran, credibility issues, and the fragility of relying on foreign intervention make his prospect of becoming a unifying post‑regime figure uncertain.

Buying vs renting: the economics now

  • Big picture

    • Rapid interest‑rate rises since 2022 have substantially increased mortgage costs, shifting the financial calculus in favor of renting across much of the rich world.
    • House prices stagnated in many markets over the same period, further weakening the home‑ownership case.

  • Core points from Mike Bird (Wall Street correspondent)

    • In the U.S. the average homebuyer currently pays about $400 more per month than the average renter (mortgage interest portion considered).
    • The oft‑cited benefit of buying—building equity—is real, but when mortgage payments exceed rent the buyer sacrifices liquidity and investment opportunities that might earn higher returns (e.g., stock market).
    • Mortgage market structure matters: fixed 30‑year mortgages (U.S.) offer security but long‑term rates remain high; in places with short‑term floating rates (e.g., Hong Kong) conditions differ.
    • Local variation is key: some cities or markets still favor buying; others strongly favor renting.
    • Political/regulatory shifts (renters’ protections, rent control) have made renting safer for tenants in some countries, further tilting short‑term advantage to renters—though these measures may harm future housing supply.

  • Practical guidance

    • Compare local rent vs mortgage cost (including taxes, insurance, maintenance) and factor in opportunity cost of alternative investments.
    • Consider mortgage type and whether you want/need housing stability and control (family size, renovation plans, long‑term location certainty).

Obituary: Aldrich Ames — how money bought betrayal

  • Who and what

    • Aldrich Ames was a CIA counterintelligence officer who from 1985 sold huge volumes of secrets to the KGB, causing the death of at least ten Soviet sources and wrecking U.S. anti‑Soviet operations.
    • He continued until 1994 when the FBI arrested him.

  • Motive and methods

    • Ames’s motivation was financial: heavy debts, an expensive new partner (large clothing, bags, phone bills), and a taste for conspicuous spending (luxury home, cars, cosmetic dental work).
    • He used crude but effective tradecraft—dead drops, signals (e.g., chalk marks on mailboxes), handing documents to embassy officers—and amassed massive amounts of classified material.
    • He displayed personal failings: alcoholism, laziness, poor recordkeeping and security habits, yet he avoided disciplinary action for years.

  • Impact and conclusion

    • Ames’s espionage was the single most damaging betrayal to U.S. intelligence in the Cold War era.
    • He framed his betrayal as non‑ideological and even rationalized it by suggesting those he exposed might have done the same in his position—an attitude that did not mitigate the catastrophic operational consequences.

Notable quotes & soundbites

  • Reza Pahlavi: Protesters are “sacrificial lambs” waiting for the cavalry (used to emphasize his view that international intervention was necessary).
  • President Trump (as relayed in the episode): “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped, it’s stopping. There’s no plan for executions.”
  • On housing: “When monthly rents are lower than mortgage repayments, renting leaves you with more to invest elsewhere”—summarizes the episode’s financial thesis.

Implications & what to watch

  • Iran: watch for further shifts in U.S. policy, the durability of the security crackdown, defections or bargaining inside regime ranks, and whether a credible domestic alternative emerges (monarchist, secular coalition, or military strongman).
  • Housing: monitor central‑bank interest‑rate paths and long‑term yields (affecting mortgage pricing), local housing policy changes, and regional house‑price trends to decide buy vs rent.
  • Intelligence/espionage lessons: organizational oversight, financial scrutiny of sensitive personnel, and counterintelligence procedures remain critical to prevent repeat betrayals.

Producer and sponsor notes (brief)

  • The episode includes sponsor messages (BetterHelp, Mint Mobile) and directs listeners to a longer video interview with Reza Pahlavi available to subscribers on The Economist’s Insider video service and app.