Overview of The Intelligence episode: “Chainsaw sputtering: Milei’s experiment falters”
This episode of The Intelligence examines three very different stories: the political and economic outlook for Argentina under President Javier Milei, Saudi Arabia’s retreat from high-profile sports investing after the collapse of LIV Golf, and the alarming decline in India’s elephant population. The central theme across all three segments is the limits of ambition—whether in economics, sports, or conservation—when reality, timing, and public sentiment get in the way.
Argentina: Javier Milei’s reform experiment is under pressure
The main segment focuses on Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whose “chainsaw” symbol for deep spending cuts has become the defining image of his presidency.
What Milei has achieved
- He inherited a severe economic crisis with inflation around 13% per month.
- His deregulation and austerity measures helped cut inflation to about 2% per month.
- Poverty has fallen by roughly a third, to around 28%.
- Financial markets and the IMF have responded positively.
- The U.S. provided crucial support, including a $20 billion swap line and peso purchases, helping stabilize the currency ahead of midterms.
- China, despite earlier hostility from Milei, remains a pragmatic trade partner and renewed its $19 billion swap line.
Why the situation is still fragile
- Voters are increasingly focused on jobs, wages, and growth, not just inflation.
- Growth is concentrated in oil, mining, and agriculture, which do not create many jobs.
- Labor-intensive sectors like manufacturing and tourism are struggling.
- Argentina has lost about 230,000 private-sector jobs since 2023.
- Wages in both the private and public sectors remain below pre-Milei levels.
- Nearly 6 million Argentines are more than 90 days behind on debt payments.
- Milei’s high interest-rate policy, while helping inflation, is weighing on lending and growth.
Political outlook
- Milei’s net approval rating is around minus 30.
- He appears unwilling to moderate his approach for electoral gain, insisting he will not change course just to win.
- His strongest advantage may be the weakness of his opponents, especially Axel Kicillof, whose own ratings are poor.
- A fragmented opposition and the appeal of outsider alternatives like Miriam Bregman add unpredictability.
- The episode’s overall judgment: Milei is still the favorite, but the election is becoming uncomfortably tight if the economy does not improve.
Foreign policy and rhetoric
- Milei has strongly aligned Argentina with the United States, Donald Trump, and Israel.
- He has also used the Falklands/Malvinas issue to stir nationalist sentiment.
- His attacks on journalists and combative style remain a major feature of his politics.
Saudi Arabia: LIV Golf and the limits of sports disruption
The second segment looks at Saudi Arabia’s waning enthusiasm for international sports investments, especially the failure of LIV Golf.
What happened
- Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund backed LIV Golf with the aim of disrupting traditional golf.
- The project spent around $5 billion since 2021.
- Despite signing prominent players and trying to create a more flashy product, it failed to attract enough fans or broadcast revenue.
- LIV Golf has now filed for bankruptcy.
Broader lesson
The segment argues Saudi Arabia has learned several hard lessons:
- Fans matter more than funding: money alone cannot create loyalty.
- Disrupting established sports is difficult: attempts to reshape football and athletics have also faltered.
- Sports projects take time: building a winning sports culture or brand can take generations, not years.
Saudi strategy shift
- The kingdom is now focusing more on domestic projects, including preparations for the 2034 World Cup.
- Sports remains part of Saudi soft power and diversification, but international splashy investments appear to be losing priority.
India: Why elephants are disappearing
The final segment turns to wildlife and conservation, asking why India’s elephants are declining despite their cultural importance.
The problem
- A recent survey found 20% fewer elephants than in 2017.
- Habitat fragmentation is a major issue: villages, roads, railways, power lines, and mining operations are carving up elephant corridors.
- Elephants often end up entering farms and villages, where conflict with humans increases.
- People sometimes drive elephants away with loud noises or even firecrackers, despite bans.
- Electric fences are not always effective; elephants can break them with their tusks.
Signs of progress
- Poaching has declined significantly since the 1980s.
- India now has:
- a wildlife crime control bureau
- state-level anti-poaching plans
- The Supreme Court recently upheld the removal of commercial activity from an elephant corridor in Tamil Nadu.
Why elephants matter
- Elephants are described as essential ecosystem engineers:
- dispersing seeds
- shaping forests
- fertilizing soil
- helping wetlands survive
- controlling invasive plants
- The segment closes with a call for stronger protection of elephant habitats, echoing ancient Indian statecraft that treated elephants and their forests as valuable assets.
Key takeaways
- Milei’s Argentina has made real progress on inflation and poverty, but growth, wages, and employment remain weak—making his reelection prospects uncertain.
- Saudi Arabia’s sports strategy shows that disruptive money can fail when it lacks fan support, cultural roots, and patience.
- India’s elephants are declining mainly because habitat loss and human encroachment are outpacing conservation gains.
Bottom line
Across politics, sports, and conservation, the episode highlights a common pattern: bold top-down plans can deliver some results, but lasting success depends on broader social buy-in, structural conditions, and time.