Overview of What's Wright — NFL Week 3 Predictions
Nick Wright breaks down his Week 3 NFL betting card, recaps a 5-5 start to the season, and lays out five official picks for the week while leaving several games as stayaways. The episode focuses on how injuries, matchups, travel, and line value shape his wagers, with a strong emphasis on identifying the best point-spread spots rather than forcing action.
Week 2 Recap and Betting Context
Nick revisits his Week 2 picks and notes a mixed but encouraging result:
- Wins: Panthers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Losses: Steelers, Jaguars
Key takeaways from the recap
- He felt his losing calls were still mostly sound process-wise, especially Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
- He credits the Panthers and Seahawks for dominating their games and says Seattle’s line was wrong because bettors overreacted to Arizona’s win over the Chargers.
- Overall record entering Week 3: 5-5
Games Nick Stays Away From
Nick identifies several matchups he likes conceptually but refuses to bet because of uncertainty, injuries, or bad line value:
Chargers at Bills
- Lean: Bills
- Stayaway because the number is high enough that Buffalo could win comfortably but still fail to cover.
- He also says he’s secretly rooting for the Chargers because it helps Kansas City’s path to the No. 1 seed.
Bengals at Steelers
- Lean: Bengals
- Normally a classic Steelers-at-home spot, but with Aaron Rodgers fading and Cincinnati looking strong, he avoids the game.
Panthers at Browns
- Stayaway because the matchup feels like a trap either way.
- Nick says the spread feels too obvious for Carolina, but he also won’t back Deshaun Watson.
Jets at Lions
- Lean: Lions
- He doesn’t trust Detroit’s defense enough to lay the number.
Texans at Colts
- Lean: Texans
- Houston is desperate after a brutal schedule, but the lack of Nico Collins and a weak running game keeps him off the bet.
Titans at Giants
- Stayaway due to uncertainty about what version of Jameis Winston will show up.
Cardinals at 49ers
- Lean: Cardinals
- But he won’t go against a 49ers team that has looked excellent so far.
Vikings at Buccaneers
- Lean: Buccaneers
- He thinks Tampa might be the sharper side but doesn’t trust the team enough to bet it.
Rams at Broncos
- Toughest read of the week for him.
- Lean splits between Rams being the more talented team and Denver being the sharper side with the points.
Eagles at Bears
- Stayaway because Caleb Williams’ status is unclear, making the line hard to trust.
Nick’s Official Week 3 Picks
1. Seahawks -7.5 at Washington
- He sees Seattle as the best team in the NFL right now.
- Washington is starting Marcus Mariota, and Seattle’s defense, special teams, and overall consistency make this a strong favorite play.
- Prediction: Seahawks win comfortably
2. Chiefs -10.5 at Dolphins
- He fully embraces Kansas City as a big favorite despite all the historical trends against it.
- His view: Miami is bad, the Chiefs are back, and this is a “pick your score” type of game.
- Prediction: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 10
3. Jaguars -2.5 vs. Patriots
- He believes Jacksonville is simply the better team.
- Notes that New England may be missing a key offensive lineman and that Drake Maye’s struggles are real.
- Prediction: Jaguars 24, Patriots 17
4. Raiders +3.5 at Saints
- He likes the Raiders’ pass rush and thinks Brock Bowers returning could matter.
- He believes Las Vegas can either win outright or at least stay inside the number.
- Prediction: Saints 21, Raiders 20
5. Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens
- This pick is driven mainly by the international-game setup and concerns about field conditions in Brazil.
- Nick prefers taking the points when game conditions are uncertain.
- Prediction: Ravens win a close one, but Dallas covers
Teaser Play of the Week
Nick also loves a 3-team, 8-point teaser:
- Chiefs -10.5 teased to -2.5
- Raiders +3.5 teased to +11.5
- Seahawks -7.5 teased to -0.5 / pick’em
He calls it a strong teaser because it crosses key numbers and matches his regular picks.
Other Betting Notes
Touchdown Genie lean
- One prop idea mentioned was Emmett Johnson anytime touchdown as a high-upside longshot.
- He also referenced a possible no touchdown for Kenneth Walker angle, tied to his expectation of a lighter Seattle workload.
Offer of the Week
- The promo was Bills to win + Justin Herbert 1+ interception.
- Nick passes, citing Buffalo’s shaky pass defense and his desire to avoid a bad-offer streak.
Main Themes from the Episode
- Trust elite teams, but only when the price is right
- Injuries and quarterback uncertainty matter a lot
- He values travel, weather, and field conditions in spread decisions
- He is especially bullish on the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Jaguars this week
- He prefers getting points with the Raiders and Cowboys in tricky spots
Final Week 3 Card
- Seahawks -7.5
- Chiefs -10.5
- Jaguars -2.5
- Raiders +3.5
- Cowboys +3.5
Nick closes by saying he’ll be back on TV Monday and hopes Week 3 is another winning slate.