Sharp or Square - Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson

Summary of Sharp or Square - Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson

by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

49m•February 6, 2026
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Overview of Sharp or Square — Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson

This episode of Sharper Square (The Volume / iHeart) is a Super Bowl prop-heavy show featuring hosts Chad Nelms and Simon Hunter and guest Brandon Anderson (Action Network). The conversation centers on why the hosts and Brandon favor the Seattle Seahawks, how pros are leaning heavily into prop markets this year, laddering/escalator strategies, and a long list of specific prop recommendations (defense/special teams, player escalators, and longshot MVPs).

Main takeaways

  • Props are the dominant market for many newer pros (age ~21–40); books now offer thousands of props and prediction-market style options.
  • The hosts and Brandon come down squarely on Seattle as the better team — primarily because of Seattle’s defense and New England’s weak offensive profile against top defenses.
  • Defensive and special-teams props (including defensive TDs and defensive MVPs) are excellent value in the Super Bowl historically and especially in this matchup.
  • Laddering/escalators and small-dollar, high-odds parlays are encouraged as “fun” Super Bowl plays — but manage bankrolls (small units on parlays/longshots).

Brandon Anderson — Key arguments & data

Why Seattle (defense) > New England (offense)

  • Seattle’s defense is elite: since Week 13 they gave up 64 points to the Rams and 44 points total to everyone else on those drives — in short, Seattle has smothered non‑Rams offenses.
  • Seattle held non‑Rams opponents under 20.5 in 13 of 16 games this season.
  • Patriots offense warning signs: very low EPA per drive (Brandon cited roughly -0.73 EPA per drive in recent stretch), historically weak for a Super Bowl team — comparable to classic “defense-first” finalists (2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos).
  • Drake Maye’s metrics: lower percentile EPA/grades against top defenses, inconsistent big-game production — lends credence to betting Seattle and taking Patriot offensive unders.

Super Bowl defensive trends (why bet D/ST)

  • Defensive/special teams touchdowns in Super Bowls: 22 total, at least one in 19 of 59 Super Bowls (about 1 in 3 games). Recently frequent: 13 defensive TDs in the last 24 Super Bowls.
  • Defensive TDs are correlated with winning: most defensive TDs have come from the winning team.
  • Defensive Super Bowl MVPs occur regularly (Brandon cited 10 defensive MVPs; he priced defensive MVPs at ~15/1 which he argued is good value).

Recommended bets (Brandon + hosts)

High-conviction / single-unit ideas

  • Patriots team total under 20.5 (Brandon’s first recommended bet). Rationale: Seattle’s run defense, pass pressure, and Patriots’ limited offense.
  • Defense / special teams touchdown (either team) — a “set it and forget it” Super Bowl prop. Brandon noted books offering this prop around +265 at one point.

Parlays / escalator variants Brandon mentioned

  • Seattle D/ST or special teams TD + Seattle money line (example quoted: Seattle D/ST + ML ~ +833).
  • Patriots D/ST or special teams TD + Patriots money line (example quoted: +2700).
  • Combine defensive TD + money line on both sides (combined value).
  • Defensive MVP (v. 15/1): buy defensive upside; pick a defender for a small ticket.

Specific longshot MVP / big‑splash names (as discussed)

  • Marcus Jones (Patriots) — large upside due to punt-return and pick-return ability (quoted 150/1).
  • “Marcus Lawrence” (transcript) — quoted 150/1 as a splash bet (note: check book for exact correct roster name).
  • Ernest Jones — quoted 200/1 as a linebacker longshot (Brandon argued linebackers have historically produced defensive Super Bowl MVPs).

Player props & escalators (practical single-game plays)

  • Rashid Shaheed (SEA) — rushing attempts / longest rush: over 2.5 rushing yards (gadget run / end-around); highest-fun‑factor bet (one-play hit). Also player for longest rush market (e.g., 30/1 quoted).
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA) — receiving: over 2.5 receptions (base); yardage escalator: 30+ yards (+160 at one book per Brandon). Rationale: more targets recently, Charbonnet out increases Walker snaps in pass-game.
  • Hunter Henry (NE TE) — yardage over 39.5 (Brandon liked this at +105), escalator to 50+ (+155) and 80+ (+630). Rationale: NE short passing / TEs getting production vs. Seattle.
  • Drake Maye completions over 19.5 (picked in the show’s official card).
  • Ramondre Stevenson total rush yards under 53.5 (show pick).
  • Misc: team/player longshot TD scorers, defensive TDs, special teams TDs, and odd scoring props — aim for small units.

House / host official short list (Sharpe Square picks)

  • Seattle -4.5 (full game)
  • New England +3.5 (first half)
  • Total UNDER 45.5
  • Drake Maye completions OVER 19.5
  • Ramondre Stevenson rushing yards UNDER 53.5

Host promos / other highlighted bets

  • Chad’s Choice (presented by Hard Rock Bet): Seattle -6.5 (+115) — an alternate Seahawks spread.
  • Brass Balls Bet (presented by Hard Rock Bet): New England first-drive punt (the hosts labeled this “gross” and a true brass-balls play).

Laddering / escalator strategy (how to scale exposure)

  • Typical ladder increments Brandon uses: aim to secure positions under key numbers with these steps:
    • Start: 5.5 and 9.5 (get under the 6 / 7 / 10 key numbers)
    • Next steps: 16.5, 23.5 (move by a touchdown ~7, then by two touchdowns)
    • Alternative smaller steps: 6.5 / 9.5 then add 13.5 / 16.5 depending on key numbers at the books.
  • Practical approach: small units at each leg, bigger single-unit on your most confident number. Use player props that fit the win script (if you expect a blowout, add defensive TD, special teams TD, specific receiver/corner matchups).
  • Parlays / multis: use small‐ticket parlays (e.g., $1–$5) on creative score-scripts (e.g., defensive TD + WR long TD + player receiving yard escalator) — Super Bowl-friendly fun money.

Historical/statistical highlights cited

  • Seahawks held teams (non-Rams) to ~7 PPG in that post-week-13 stretch: impressive defensive baseline.
  • Patriots offense: cited as ~-0.73 EPA per drive in recent stretch — very low for a Super Bowl team; Brandon cited worst since some historically defense-first finalists.
  • Defensive/Special Teams scoring in Super Bowls: 22 defensive TDs, at least one in 19 of 59 Super Bowls — bet frequency supports D/ST props.
  • Patriots allowed most rushing yards to receivers (stat cited ~149 this season) — suggests trick plays/end-around targets to Shaheed or WR rush props can win.
  • Seattle has strong pressure and pass-defense against deep targets; few WRs have reached big yardage vs Seattle all year.

Betting approach & bankroll tips from the show

  • Treat the Super Bowl like entertainment: spread small units across many creative props for upside.
  • Reserve core unit(s) for high-conviction numbers (e.g., team totals or spreads you believe in).
  • Keep longshot parlays and escalators small, but numerous: the goal is the occasional large payout that makes the week.
  • Watch book-specific lines and shop for best price — props and alt lines vary across books.
  • Be mindful of correlated parlays: e.g., if you parlay Seahawks ML with player props that depend on Seattle scoring a ton, they can be correlated (intentionally or unintentionally) — think through scenarios.

Quick “one-page” bet ideas (actionable)

  • Core plays

    • Patriots team total UNDER 20.5 (Brandon)
    • Seattle -4.5 (Sharper Square pick) or Chad alt: Seattle -6.5 +115
    • Total UNDER 45.5 (show pick)

  • Defensive / special teams

    • Either-team defensive/special teams TD (single bet)
    • Seattle D/ST TD + Seattle ML (small parlay)
    • Defensive MVP (small unit — historical value)

  • Player props (small tickets / escalators)

    • Rashid Shaheed — rushing yards over 2.5 (one-play, high-fun)
    • Kenneth Walker III — over 2.5 receptions; yardage escalator 30+ (+160)
    • Hunter Henry — over 39.5 receiving yards (+105); escalator to 50+ yards

  • First-half feel / hedge

    • New England +3.5 first half (Sharper Square contest pick; use small unit to hedge slow 1H script)

Final notes & context

  • The episode emphasizes using historical Super Bowl trends and matchup-specific analytics (EPA, pressure rates, matchup vulnerabilities) to find edge in player props and D/ST markets.
  • Hosts and guest are materially biased to Seattle in their full-game outlook, but recommend small contrarian first-half and creative prop exposure to cover scripts that depart from the main view.
  • If you bet, shop lines, keep multi-book accounts, and allocate small units to high variance prop plays.

(Show promos: several iHeart/Hard Rock Bet sponsor callouts — sign-up promos and app offers were mentioned repeatedly.)