Overview of Sharp or Square — NFL Week 12 Bets
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the full NFL Week 12 card, game-by-game, delivering their reads, trends, and recommended plays. They focus on where the market has moved, injury/QB uncertainties, and historical betting trends that influence which sides they like (and which they avoid). Several heavy convictions this week (Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, Rams), plus conditional plays that depend on late injury/quarterback news.
Key picks & recommendations (quick list)
- Bills at Texans — Bills -5.5/-6 (lean: Bills) — Confidence: Moderate
- Seahawks at Titans — Seahawks -13 (take if ≤13; prefer <14) — Confidence: Strong
- Steelers at Bears — Steelers +3 (take the dog, fade Bears regression spot) — Confidence: Moderate
- Lions vs Giants — Lions -10.5 (heavy play) — Confidence: Strong
- Bengals vs Patriots — Bengals -7.5 (only if Joe Flacco starts; otherwise avoid) — Confidence: Conditional
- Colts at Chiefs — Colts +3 / look for +3.5/hook (Simon likes Colts if you can get the hook) — Confidence: Moderate (line-dependent)
- Browns at Raiders — Raiders -3 / Raiders moneyline (Chad heavy ML) — Confidence: Moderate (line-dependent)
- Cardinals at Jaguars — Cardinals +2.5 (Chad's contrarian pick) — Confidence: Moderate
- Bucs at Rams (SNF) — Rams -6.5 (both leaning Rams) — Confidence: Moderate
- Panthers at 49ers (MNF) — Panthers +7 (both like Panthers at +7) — Confidence: Moderate–Strong
Games they passed on / want more info: Packers vs Vikings (pass), Saints vs Falcons (pass), Eagles vs Cowboys (want to re-evaluate after injury/news movement).
Game-by-game breakdown (short rationales)
Bills at Texans
- Market moving toward Bills; uncertainty about Texans QB/CJ Stroud (concussion protocol) hurts Houston. Bills coming off huge performance; public money piling on Buffalo. Lean Bills -5.5/6.
Seahawks at Tennessee (-13)
- Both hosts like Seattle at this number — strong trend & matchup edge. Seahawks are a covering machine (especially as favorites) and Titans matchup looks poor. Take Seahawks if you can get ≤13.
Steelers at Bears (+3)
- Reluctant fade of the Bears despite Chicago’s surprising win streak. Historical regression tendencies and Chicago’s narrow-margin wins make Steelers +3 appealing.
Lions vs Giants (-10.5)
- One of their strongest plays. Detroit has excellent bounce-back trends after poor offensive weeks and a very favorable historical profile when big favorites at home against this sort of opponent. Love Lions -10.5.
Jets at Ravens (-13.5)
- Both admit Ravens are the logical play; Simon tempted but cautious — the number is large. Consider Ravens but monitor the week and other exposures.
Bengals vs Patriots (-7.5)
- Bengals favored by 7.5. The key is QB: if Joe Flacco starts, pros love Bengals to cover; if not, avoid. Patriots’ long win streaks are historically prone to regression, so the market is luring cheapskate touches on Bengals.
Colts at Chiefs (-3)
- Simon leans Colts, citing defensive matchups historically troublesome for Mahomes (similarity to past Bengals scheme under Lou Anarumo). This is strongly line-dependent — look for +3.5/hook for better value.
Vikings at Packers (-6.5)
- Both hosts pass; lack of trust in J.J. McCarthy and inconsistent QB play leaves this one unclear. No action recommended.
Browns at Raiders (-3)
- Chad likes Raiders moneyline despite Browns road struggles; Raiders may be a good play for wagers that accept the ML. Be cautious if line moves to -3.5.
Cardinals +2.5 vs Jaguars
- Chad calls this a buy: Jaguars look ripe for a letdown after a big comeback win; Cardinals have major defensive meltdowns but this number (Cardinals +2.5) is attractive.
Saints vs Falcons (-2)
- Both largely pass; Saints/Falcons injuries and QB issues make this a low-conviction game.
Eagles vs Cowboys (line moved to Cowboys -3)
- Very tough. Eagles offense is struggling (Lane Johnson injury noted) and Cowboys defense looked improved. Chad already has a Cowboys bet; Simon would be tempted to buy Eagles if price holds. Both want to revisit after more injury/practice news.
Bucs at Rams (SNF)
- Rams favored by ~6.5. Both lean Rams; Baker Mayfield has prime-time struggles historically when a dog/night game; Rams matchup and coach tendencies support LA.
Panthers at 49ers (MNF, SF -7)
- Both like Panthers +7. Panthers could be def-weak but Bryce Young and matchup + letdown trends for 49ers after wins make +7 attractive. Take Panthers at +7.
Betting trends & angles they highlighted
- Teams coming off an embarrassing or poor performance (e.g., Lions after 0-for-4 fourth downs) often bounce back strongly — actionable on Detroit.
- Huge favorites (11+ points) have a poor ATS record recently — don’t overpay for massive edges unless matchup screams it.
- Teams on long win streaks (Patriots) historically fade ATS — be cautious backing long streaks.
- Quarterback availability changes everything (Texans, Bengals, Bears, Chiefs/Colts) — always monitor late QB news and injury reports.
- Primetime/night game splits matter — some QBs/coaching staffs demonstrably struggle in primetime (Baker/Buccaneers example).
- Road favorites versus home dogs: consider where public and pro money is flowing—line movement often reveals sharp action.
Notable quotes / takeaways
- “If it's Joe Flacco, it's a no-brainer” — Bengals BOTTLENECK is QB status; pick is conditional.
- “This number should be closer to 13, but you're getting some points here” — on Lions -10.5 (strong conviction).
- “Teams on eight-win streaks are 39% ATS since 2010” — a caution on betting heavily on long streaks (Patriots example).
- “Take Seahawks as long as you're getting under 14” — Seahawks recommendation threshold.
Action items — what to monitor & shop for
- Monitor late QB/injury updates closely: CJ Stroud (Texans), Aaron Rodgers (Bears), Joe Flacco (Bengals), Josh Jacobs (Packers), Bucky Irving (Bucs), Jamar Chase (out), Lamar adjustments.
- Shop lines: recommended spots where a half-point/hook matters:
- Seahawks (get ≤13)
- Lions (play -10.5 now)
- Colts (seek +3.5 or the hook)
- Raiders (prefer -3 vs -3.5; ML is an alternative)
- Panthers (buy +7)
- Bengals (only if Flacco starts)
- Use Hard Rock / multiple books to find better pricing on close lines; half-point swings matter this week.
Bottom line / summary
Week 12 is a lines-driven week: several strong, repeatable trends (Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, Rams) and multiple conditional spots hinging on QB/injury clarity (Bengals, Chiefs game, Bills-Texans). Chad and Simon are heavy on a few favorites but emphasize shopping for hooks and waiting for Thursday injury news on some matches. If you want a compact starting card from the episode: Seahawks (≤13), Lions -10.5, Panthers +7, Rams -6.5, Steelers +3, Raiders ML (or -3), Cardinals +2.5 — with Bengals only if Flacco starts and Colts if you can get +3.5.