Overview of Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 11 Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Bucs-Bills, Lions-Eagles, Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-Raiders and more
This episode of Sharper Square (presented by Hard Rock Bet) is the hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter locking in their final five Week 11 NFL bets after reviewing line movement, injuries, matchup angles and public/sharp action. The show walks through several games, explains why lines moved, and finishes with a five-game card (with contest-specific pricing noted).
Final five (what they put in)
- Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (contest: +5.5) — they like the matchup and expect offense/backdoor opportunities.
- Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (contest: -2.5; many books at -3 or -3.5) — their Brass Balls pick of the week; they’d take Rams at -3 if that’s what’s available.
- Cleveland Browns +8.5 (contest: +8.5; many books at +7.5) — big home dog value against a road Ravens team.
- Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (contest: -1.5; hosts had been betting -2.5 in other spots) — they expect the Eagles to win a close game despite some dysfunction.
- Carolina Panthers +3.5 (contest: +3.5) — a late swap in to finish the card (they debated Raiders vs Panthers).
Note: several games discussed had different “contest” prices vs. market prices — hosts repeatedly noted to take hooks (e.g., +3.5 vs +3).
Game-by-game summary & key reasoning
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Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Bengals +5.5)
- Hosts like Joe Flacco’s ability to keep games close and expect Bengals’ offense to exploit a weak Steelers secondary.
- Wind/gusty weather noted — could increase randomness and favor the underdog/backdoor scenarios.
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Houston at Tennessee (Texans/Titans; moved from ~+7.5 to +5.5)
- Both hosts liked Houston earlier, but were surprised by sharp money on Tennessee that pulled the number down.
- Concerns about Tennessee’s offense generating consistent drives vs Houston’s strong run game.
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Tampa Bay at Buffalo (Bucs-Bills; moved 5.5 → 6/6.5)
- Significant uncertainty around Baker Mayfield’s health/usage and Tampa’s offense without their primary runner (referred to on the show as “Bucky Irving”).
- Hosts were hesitant to fully back either side given missing information and movement toward Buffalo.
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Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -3 to -3.5)
- Rams are the show’s Brass Balls pick — matchup and Rams’ strengths favored despite heavy public attention and media love on Matthew Stafford.
- Concern about public money but still like the matchup vs Sam Darnold’s offense and Seattle’s defensive front.
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Baltimore at Cleveland (Ravens -7.5/8 to Browns +7.5/8.5)
- Hosts love Cleveland as a home dog — Browns defend much better at home historically and Ravens are viewed as overrated on the road.
- Health of Browns’ backfield (who will carry) is a key variable; Lamar Jackson’s hamstring was discussed but reported as “go” in practice.
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Detroit at Philadelphia (Eagles -2.5 → -2/-1.5 contest)
- Hosts expect Philadelphia to win a close game: Jalen Hurts is playing confidently and Eagles defense is strong.
- Detroit has been a public darling; hosts note injuries in Detroit’s secondary could make it easier for the Eagles’ WRs.
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Dallas at Las Vegas (Monday night; movement to Cowboys -3 / Raiders +3.5)
- Hosts liked the Cowboys at lower prices; movement down to -3 made them comfortable. They recommended taking hooks where possible on the Raiders (+3.5).
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Other notes: Carolina vs Atlanta (Panthers +3/3.5) — considered as an alternative; Arizona, Denver and a few other lines were mentioned as movement spots they passed on.
Line movement & market signals
- Several games showed sharp/professional vs public splits:
- Texans/Titans: sharp money moved the number down (7.5 → 5.5).
- Bucs/Bills: moved toward Buffalo (5.5 → 6 / 6.5), suggesting pro interest.
- Rams: multiple books moved to 3.5 then were bet down — indicates sharp activity taking a stand.
- Advice emphasized: get the best number, take the hook where available, and watch for late injury/practice reports (Baker, Lamar, Cleveland RBs).
Notable insights / quotes
- “The books aren’t giving us extra free points, but it feels like in this game they are.” — on Steelers-Bengals pricing.
- “I just can’t get over how overrated this Pittsburgh defense is.” — skepticism about Steelers defensive reputation.
- “If this was down to six and a half, seven, maybe we could talk ourselves out of this. But like Chad said, it’s up to eight now. We’re suckers for anything over seven and a half, especially with the hook.” — on why Cleveland as a big home dog is appealing.
Actionable recommendations for bettors (from the episode)
- Shop for the best number and the hook (e.g., +3.5 vs +3; +7.5 vs +8). Small differences matter.
- Be cautious when lines move heavily toward the public; look for sharp indicators.
- Monitor injury/practice reports late (Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Browns RBs).
- Consider environmental factors (wind/cold) that can change scoring/risk of field goals and turnovers.
- Don’t force games into your card if you’re not confident — use situational edges (home dogs >7.5, mismatch fronts, etc.).
Bottom line / takeaway
Chad and Simon finalized a five-game card that leans on situational value: two home dogs with size (Cleveland, Cincinnati), a favorite in a favorable matchup (Rams), the Eagles at a slim price, and a late-choice underdog (Carolina). Their approach blends matchup analysis, market movement, and injury/weather awareness — and they repeatedly stress obtaining the best available line and using hooks when possible.