Overview of Sharp or Square NFL Week 10 Bets
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter review the Week 10 NFL lines, weighing recent team form, injuries, weather, travel, and possible trade-deadline moves. Their featured picks are Simon’s Cowboys +4.5 against the 49ers and Chad’s Choice: Steelers +3.5 against the Bengals. They also discuss several other sides, with some bets dependent on late quarterback news.
Betting Backdrop
The hosts open with a wild Week 9 for favorites: favorites went 11–3–1 against the spread, according to a stat they attribute to Evan Abrams. They also note that teams with a rest advantage have been covering at an unusually high rate this season, while cautioning that trends and small samples can mislead.
Trade-deadline uncertainty looms over several games, especially Minnesota’s search for a quarterback. The hosts praise Philadelphia’s approach of trading established players for valuable picks while continuing to compete, and describe Jacksonville’s moves as an all-in effort to strengthen an already dominant run defense.
Featured Picks
- Simon’s Say: Cowboys +4.5 vs. 49ers. Hunter sees the spread as inflated after San Francisco’s turnover-heavy win over the Raiders. He expects public support for the 49ers and backs Dallas as a resilient home underdog.
- Chad’s Choice: Steelers +3.5 vs. Bengals. Millman switches his pick from Atlanta to Pittsburgh during the show. The hosts point to the Steelers’ rest advantage and Cincinnati’s difficult return from an international game. They also note the Bengals’ strong recent scoring, but say that run has come against weak opposition.
Game-by-Game Views
- Commanders at Giants: Millman says he bet the Giants at -1.5 and favors them in the rain, citing their stronger running game and coaching edge. The line had moved to Giants -2.5 by the recording.
- Patriots at Lions: Both hosts took Detroit -2.5. They like the Lions’ improved defense after the bye and see the game as a chance for Jared Goff to rebound. The Munich setting and New England coach Mike Vrabel give them some pause.
- Texans at Browns: Both like Cleveland +4.5, with Millman willing to wait for a possible move to +5. They question why Houston is such a sizable favorite against a Browns team that plays well at home, though they acknowledge Cleveland has often let them down.
- 49ers at Cowboys: Hunter’s featured pick is Dallas +4.5. He argues that the 49ers’ recent margin was helped by multiple Raiders turnovers and that Dallas can keep the game close.
- Jaguars at Titans: Both lean toward Jacksonville, despite the large spread. They credit the Jaguars’ strong form, Trevor Lawrence’s connection with coach Liam Coen, and the defense’s ability to shut down the run. They briefly consider Tennessee as a home underdog but doubt the Titans can stay competitive without a productive rushing game.
- Vikings at Packers: The hosts hold off on a pick because Minnesota’s quarterback situation is unresolved. Hunter does not want to back Carson Wentz, while both discuss the possibility that the Vikings could trade for a quarterback before the deadline.
- Dolphins at Colts: Hunter leans toward Indianapolis -2.5, citing concerns about Miami and a possible injury affecting Malik. Millman is less committed and says a trade involving key Colts players could change his view.
- Bills at Jets: The hosts are reluctant to back the Jets, even at a bigger number, because of their limited offense and field-goal-heavy approach. They see a possible spot for Josh Allen and Buffalo to score heavily, but note the Bills’ defense still needs to prove itself against stronger opponents.
- Panthers at Saints: Millman likes Carolina and says he would tease the Panthers up to +7.5. Hunter is wary, expecting a close divisional game and noting that both teams have shown reasons for caution.
- Chiefs at Falcons: Millman initially makes Atlanta +3.5 his pick, and Hunter supports the side, citing Atlanta’s ability to pressure quarterbacks without blitzing and professional betting support at the number. Millman later changes his featured pick to the Steelers.
- Rams at Cardinals: The hosts lean toward the Rams given Arizona’s quarterback and receiver uncertainty. They also defend their Rams-to-miss-the-playoffs futures bet, pointing to Puka Nacua’s expected absence and a difficult upcoming schedule.
- Seahawks at Raiders: Hunter considers Seattle -3.5, especially if a rookie quarterback starts for Las Vegas, but says the decision depends on the Raiders’ deadline moves. Millman is concerned about Seattle’s quarterback situation and the matchup for a rookie.
- Steelers at Bengals: The hosts’ final featured side is Pittsburgh +3.5, with rest and travel factors supporting the Steelers.
- Chargers at Ravens: Hunter says he backed Baltimore earlier at -3 to -3.5 and would still consider the Ravens below -6, particularly if Justin Herbert cannot play. He cautions that the Chargers’ status could affect the line.
Other Takeaways
The hosts say Jacksonville’s recent roster additions signal serious playoff ambitions, while noting that its large division-winning odds may reflect public enthusiasm. They also discuss a historical trend that most recent Super Bowl winners were among the four shortest-priced teams after Thanksgiving, but Millman cautions that current contenders still have difficult schedules ahead.