Overview of Sharp or Square NBA Finals Betting Update: Knicks vs. Spurs
Chad Millman, Simon Hunter, and guest Jason Timp of Hoops Tonight break down Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs, focusing on what the opener revealed about the matchup and where betting value may now lie. The conversation centers on the Knicks’ 105-95 win, the tactical battle between Jalen Brunson and Victor Wembanyama, and how the series odds and Finals MVP market have shifted after one game.
Game 1 Recap and What It Told Us
Knicks controlled the key stretches
- New York won Game 1 by 10, but the score was a little misleading.
- San Antonio led by 13 in the middle of the third quarter before the Knicks took over late.
- The Spurs’ energy faded, while the Knicks looked more experienced, physical, and composed in the closing minutes.
The matchup advantage felt real
- Jason emphasized that the Knicks’ size and strength matchup well against San Antonio.
- Carl-Anthony Towns was highlighted as a major problem for the Spurs on both ends:
- He can slow Wembanyama defensively.
- He can punish almost every Spurs defender offensively.
- Brunson’s ability to get the game close late remains one of New York’s biggest advantages.
Wembanyama still drove the game
- Even in a rough shooting night, Wemby nearly stole it late with sheer talent.
- Jason called him the best player in the series, but noted he needs tactical adjustments against Towns.
- The key issue is less “strength” and more Wemby’s high center of gravity, which makes bully-ball difficult.
Betting Market Movement
Series odds
- Knicks moved from +170 before Game 1 to -140 after Game 1.
- Spurs moved from -200 to +115.
Finals MVP market
- Jalen Brunson: moved from +200 to -110
- Victor Wembanyama: moved from -200 to +120
- Karl-Anthony Towns: moved from 20-1 to 12-1
- Stephon Castle: around 75-1
- De’Aaron Fox: effectively off the board, around 250-1
Best Bets and Series Angles
Jason Timp’s lean
- He thinks the Spurs can win Game 2, but still likes the Knicks to win the series.
- His exact series prediction: Knicks in 6.
Value plays discussed
- Knicks series price at -140: Jason still sees value there.
- Karl-Anthony Towns Finals MVP at 12-1: Simon called this the best value on the board.
- The reasoning: if Towns keeps disrupting Wemby and New York wins, his two-way impact could become the story of the series.
- Knicks sweep at +600: Jason said it’s not his main play, but it’s not absurd given New York’s momentum and MSG home-court energy.
Player Evaluation: Brunson vs. Wembanyama
Brunson’s late-game value
- Brunson is not in the top tier of all-around stars like Jokic, Luka, Giannis, Wemby, or SGA.
- But in late-game, “give me a bucket” situations, Jason argued he may be near the top of the league.
- His edge comes from:
- footwork
- leverage
- creativity
- angle changes
- ability to create awkward, efficient shots under pressure
Wemby’s long-term ceiling
- Jason pushed back on the idea that Wemby needs to “bulk up” to dominate.
- He argued Wemby’s game is built on mobility and length, not bulldozing opponents.
- The comparison he used was Anthony Davis: added bulk doesn’t necessarily solve leverage issues if the center of gravity stays high.
Atmosphere and Team Identity
Knicks fans and MSG
- The hosts repeatedly praised Madison Square Garden’s playoff atmosphere.
- They also joked about how annoying Knicks fans can be outside the arena, even while admitting the crowd energy is special.
- The most vivid image from the discussion: the Garden chanting “Defense” is one of the most electric moments in sports.
Main Takeaways
- Game 1 favored the Knicks stylistically, not just on the scoreboard.
- Karl-Anthony Towns may be the swing player in the series and a live Finals MVP candidate.
- Brunson remains the most reliable clutch creator, even if Wemby is the most talented player overall.
- The market has moved toward New York, but Jason still sees value in the Knicks rather than chasing a Spurs bounce-back at the new price.
- Series outlook: both analysts expect a long series, with Jason officially landing on Knicks in 6.