Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Bucs-Bears, Cowboys-Colts and more

Summary of Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Bucs-Bears, Cowboys-Colts and more

by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

28m•November 8, 2026
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Overview of Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Bucs-Bears, Cowboys-Colts and more

In this Week 9 Sunday betting episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter finalize their five favorite picks for the Sharper Square $25,000 NFL Pick’Em contest. The discussion centers on line value, injury news, public betting lopsidedness, and which teams are being undervalued or overvalued by the market. The hosts ultimately choose a slate of underdogs and one road favorite, leaning heavily on key numbers and matchup-driven reasoning rather than raw team quality.

Final Five Picks

1. New York Jets +10.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • The hosts like the matchup more than the team.
  • They believe the game profile points to a closer-than-expected result, with Mahomes often keeping games within a narrower margin.
  • They note Kansas City’s injuries in the secondary and the idea that the Jets can generate enough offense to stay inside the number.
  • They acknowledge the line has moved, but still view anything from +8.5 to +10.5 as playable.

2. Las Vegas Raiders +10 vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • This is a “bet the number” play, especially after getting +10.5 earlier in the week.
  • They expect the Raiders to remain competitive enough to keep the game within two scores, even against a top-tier 49ers team.
  • The Raiders’ ability to “backdoor” covers and keep throwing late matters here.
  • This was the pick they were most lukewarm on of the final five, mostly because the line has moved against them.

3. Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos

  • The hosts view this as a classic “gross but sharp” home-dog spot.
  • Their confidence comes from Bryce Young in a bounce-back situation and the belief that Denver is being somewhat overrated.
  • Carolina’s injuries and offensive line issues are a concern, but not enough to deter them at +2.5.
  • They emphasize that books are taking a stand on Denver, which supports the Panthers play.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs. Chicago Bears

  • They admit this one is uncomfortable, but like the number.
  • The Bucs’ improved defense and strong recent run game make the spread appealing.
  • They think Caleb Williams has been impressive, but not necessarily enough to justify laying this many points.
  • Weather and Chicago’s defensive style also factor into the lean toward Tampa Bay.

5. Seattle Seahawks -8.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

  • This was one of the stronger conviction plays for Simon.
  • The Seahawks remain a favorite in a week where the public is heavily leaning elsewhere.
  • They mention Arizona-related injury/news concerns and think Seattle can separate if the offense functions normally.
  • Despite some quarterback health concerns, they still see value at the current number.

Games They Seriously Considered but Passed

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

  • This was their “closing time trade” candidate earlier in the show.
  • The Colts had value at a better number earlier, but they ultimately passed on including them in the final five.
  • They discussed Dallas being vulnerable defensively and the Colts being in a potential “must-show-pride” spot, but not enough to overturn the current card.

Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins

  • Miami was discussed as a situational play, especially with heat/humidity and Detroit injury concerns.
  • Still, the hosts were less interested once the number settled and didn’t want to replace any of their better-priced bets.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders

  • They liked the Rams, especially with Washington’s vulnerability to strong pass rushes and the possibility of Myles Garrett-type pressure in similar spots.
  • But the line movement and the strength of their other numbers kept the Rams off the final card.

Main Betting Themes

Value Over Team Reputation

  • The show repeatedly stresses that the best bets come from grabbing strong numbers, not just picking the “better team.”
  • They emphasize key numbers like +10, +6.5, and +2.5.

Public Is One-Sided

  • They describe Week 9 as a “trappy” week where public money is piling onto obvious favorites.
  • Their strategy is to fade some of those popular spots and trust the market inefficiencies.

Backdoor Covers Matter

  • Several picks are based on the idea that underdogs can stay alive late and cover even if they don’t win outright.
  • This is especially true for the Jets and Raiders.

Injuries and Matchups Drive the Card

  • Health news, especially in secondary and skill positions, influences multiple picks.
  • They also lean on coaching tendencies, offensive line play, and pressure rates as matchup deciders.

Final Takeaway

The episode’s betting card reflects a classic contrarian Week 9 approach: grab points in ugly spots, trust key numbers, and avoid overreacting to public enthusiasm. Their final five are:

  • Jets +10.5
  • Raiders +10
  • Panthers +2.5
  • Buccaneers +6.5
  • Seahawks -8.5

The hosts close by saying they prefer to keep their best numbers rather than forcing a change, even in a week with several tempting alternatives.