Overview of Sharp or Square Week 3 NFL Bets
In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter finalize their Week 3 NFL picks for the Sharp or Square $25,000 Pro Football Pick’em Contest. The discussion centers on line movement, injury news, weather, and whether certain underdogs still offer value at their current numbers. Their approach remains consistent: bet the number, not the team, and lean into spots where the market has overcorrected.
Final Contest Picks
1. Miami Dolphins +10.5 vs. Chiefs
- The hosts stick with Miami even after the line moved down from 11.5.
- Their logic: the Dolphins are ugly, but double-digit underdogs can still cover, especially at home.
- They expect Kansas City to ease off if it builds a lead, creating backdoor-cover potential.
- They also note that many bettors will have the Chiefs in survivor pools, which adds to the market pressure on Miami.
2. Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Panthers
- Cleveland remains one of their most confident plays.
- They point to Carolina missing key pieces, especially on offense and defense.
- The Browns are still undervalued because of public distrust in the Deshaun Watson-era team.
- Weather may also help Cleveland keep the game ugly and close.
3. Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 at Bills
- This is framed as a classic “bet the number” play.
- The Chargers are 0-2 and have looked rough, but Justin Herbert has historically covered well as a big underdog.
- The Bills are heavily public and could be vulnerable to a trap-game letdown.
- The number dropping elsewhere only reinforced that the value was on Los Angeles.
4. Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cowboys
- They still like Baltimore despite the hook and the bad field conditions in Brazil.
- The Ravens are viewed as the better team and due for a bounce-back after an ugly Week 2 loss.
- Dallas has been strong against weaker NFC East teams, but this is a tougher class of opponent.
- The main concern is the field, not the side.
5. Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs. Texans
- This was their Thursday play, and it stayed in the contest even as the line moved toward Indianapolis.
- They think Houston is being priced too aggressively despite weak offensive line play and a shaky defense.
- The Texans are also missing Nico Collins, which hurts their passing attack.
- The Colts’ offense has enough speed and separation ability to exploit Houston’s secondary.
Games They Considered but Passed On
Patriots at Jaguars
- They liked New England earlier at +2.5, but the move to +3.5 killed the value.
- Their takeaway: good number, but not enough at the current line.
Seahawks at Commanders
- Seattle moved up from -7.5 to -8.5, making it too expensive for them.
- They acknowledged Washington could be a sharp dog play, but not one they wanted to force into the contest.
Jets at Lions
- Mentioned as a possible replacement if they had to move off another side.
- They preferred other plays more, especially Indianapolis and Arizona.
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs. 49ers
- This was a close alternative and one of the strongest “last two out” options.
- The Bosa injury news and San Francisco’s mounting defensive injuries improved Arizona’s case.
- Still, they left it out of the final five.
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Rams
- Another home underdog they liked conceptually.
- They pointed to matchup issues for the Rams, especially with injuries and Denver’s defensive ability.
- They ultimately preferred the five picks above.
Main Betting Themes
Line Value Matters More Than Team Reputation
- A recurring theme is that the same team can go from playable to unplayable based on number movement.
- Examples:
- Patriots/Jaguars was good at 2.5, not at 3.5.
- Seahawks/Commanders became too expensive at 8.5.
- Colts became more interesting when the market moved toward them.
They Like Home Dogs and Ugly Underdogs
- Several of their strongest opinions involved home underdogs:
- Browns
- Colts
- Dolphins
- Ravens as a home favorite in a tough bounce-back spot
- They emphasized that bad teams still cover, especially when the market overreacts.
Injury and Weather News Mattered
- Washington/Seattle and Ravens/Cowboys were both influenced by weather and field concerns.
- Arizona’s case improved sharply with San Francisco injuries.
- Houston’s outlook worsened with Nico Collins out.
Final Takeaway
Their final contest card is built around value, volatility, and market overreaction:
- Dolphins +10.5
- Browns +2.5
- Chargers +7.5
- Ravens -3.5
- Colts +2.5
They finish by noting that Arizona would be the first replacement if they needed to switch off Indianapolis.