Overview of 3 & Out - NFL Training Camp Mailbag
John Middlekauff uses this weekend mailbag to hit a wide range of NFL training camp topics, with the biggest themes being the 49ers’ recurring injury problems, the Cowboys/Eagles quarterback debate, Tony Romo’s future at CBS, and how much randomness, overtraining, and business realities shape football outcomes. He also branches into broader sports-business commentary, college football scheduling, supplements/Adderall, and career advice for a listener trying to decide between getting a job or starting a business.
Biggest NFL Takeaways
49ers injuries and the role of practice/training
- Middlekauff says the 49ers’ repeated injury issues are probably not just about their run-heavy style.
- He argues that modern NFL players:
- train year-round at an extreme level,
- are often too tightly wound / overtrained,
- and now practice less physically, which may leave bodies less “callused” for football contact.
- He also believes there is a meaningful amount of randomness in injuries across the league.
- His broader point: football is so physically demanding that injuries are inevitable, and there may be no single clean explanation.
Draft “misses” are often more random than fans admit
- He pushes back on the idea that the 49ers “can’t draft,” saying draft evaluation is highly uncertain.
- Many players who become stars were not obvious picks at the time.
- Examples he references in spirit:
- late-round hits like George Kittle and Brock Purdy,
- and the fact that people only look “smart” in hindsight.
- His main takeaway: drafting is noisy, and good coaching can help teams survive bad draft classes.
Why Kyle Shanahan matters so much
- Middlekauff says the 49ers are unusually fortunate to have Kyle Shanahan because his coaching can cover for a lot of roster mistakes.
- He contrasts San Francisco with teams that could not overcome poor drafting or personnel decisions.
- In his view, elite play-callers/head coaches are a huge reason some teams remain competitive despite front-office flaws.
Cowboys, Eagles, and QB Comparisons
Buying Cowboys stock?
- He is not crowning Dallas, but he is more bullish on them than many fans are.
- His view:
- Dak Prescott is better than Jalen Hurts as a pure passer right now
- Dallas could have a much better defense
- and the Cowboys are at least in the mix to win the NFC East
- He is not predicting a Super Bowl run or even guaranteeing a playoff win.
- Still, he thinks it’s fair to say Dallas has a real path to being a strong regular-season team.
Jalen Hurts vs. Russell Wilson
- He says there are some similarities:
- both were doubted entering the league,
- both played on strong teams,
- both won early,
- and both have been criticized as “system” quarterbacks.
- But he thinks:
- Wilson was the better passer
- Hurts is the stronger runner
- He says Hurts’ 2025 spotlight is higher because of last year’s offensive struggles and the ongoing questions around the Eagles’ offense.
Why the Eagles are flying under the radar
- He thinks the Eagles are being somewhat overlooked because:
- they’re not a flashy media market,
- a lot of national NFL coverage skews toward bigger brands,
- and the Eagles don’t generate constant offseason hype.
- Still, he believes Philly’s defense could be fantastic.
- His bigger concern is whether the offense can bounce back.
Tony Romo and CBS
Is Tony Romo done?
- Middlekauff discusses the recently released DUI video involving Romo and says it fits the public image many people already had of him.
- He believes CBS may use the situation to move on from Romo for cause.
- His main argument is business-driven:
- Romo is expensive,
- CBS may already have reasons to be dissatisfied,
- and a cheaper replacement like J.J. Watt could be easier to justify.
- He says the internet outrage itself matters less than the internal business calculus.
- Bottom line: he thinks it’s very possible Romo never calls another CBS game.
College Football and the Schedule Problem
International games and weird scheduling
- A listener asks about ASU playing in London, and Middlekauff is skeptical of college football’s obsession with novelty when the regular schedule is full of weak non-conference games.
- He points out:
- too many top teams are opening with blowout “buy” games,
- and the sport’s scheduling model is often bad for fans.
- He does note that some games, like LSU vs. Clemson, are real matchups and should be praised.
The larger point
- He feels college football needs to be fixed structurally.
- The product is too often dominated by mismatches and bad inventory, especially early in the season.
Performance Enhancers, Supplements, and Adderall
Where should the line be?
- Middlekauff says he is not shocked when athletes are linked to:
- Adderall,
- HGH,
- or other performance-related substances.
- His view is pragmatic:
- many people in high-performance environments use something to sharpen focus or function,
- and the real line is often about what is detectable and what affects insurance/business risk.
- He distinguishes between:
- substances that make a player stronger,
- and focus aids that are often used openly in normal professional life.
Barry Bonds example
- He says Bonds was already an elite hitter before steroids supposedly took him to another level.
- He views that era as proof that the public’s moral outrage often ignores the reality that many athletes are looking for any edge.
Business, “Bags,” and Sports Economics
On the “bag” debate
- He strongly pushes back on the notion that modern athletes get literal bags of cash.
- His point:
- in college or street contexts, “bag” has a literal meaning,
- but in pro sports, players are paid through contracts, escrow, and formal business structures.
- He says the language is sloppy, but the real issue is that sports are a business first.
Sports leagues are run by economics, not emotion
- He repeatedly argues that decisions in football and media are about:
- contracts,
- leverage,
- insurance,
- and market value.
- In his view, people overestimate how emotional these decisions are.
Career Advice for a College Student
Should you skip a job and start a company?
- His advice is balanced:
- Some people are rare enough to go straight into entrepreneurship,
- but many benefit from working under someone first.
- He recommends:
- learning from a good company,
- building relationships,
- meeting people in the industry,
- and using a few early years as a launchpad.
- He encourages following your gut, but says there is real value in working for the right people before trying to become the boss.
NFL Injury Trends and the Value of Star Quarterbacks
Why injuries barely move the needle—until they do
- Middlekauff says injuries to non-quarterbacks often don’t change the business much.
- But if elite quarterbacks like:
- Patrick Mahomes,
- Josh Allen,
- Lamar Jackson,
- Jalen Hurts,
- or Dak Prescott were to miss time, the league would feel it immediately.
- His point: the NFL is incredibly star-driven at the quarterback position.
Merit-Based Ranking of Major Sports
Which league is most “eat what you kill”?
- He says the NFL is the most merit-based major sport.
- Why:
- contracts aren’t as guaranteed,
- bad play can lead to instant release,
- and players can be cut quickly if they decline.
- He contrasts that with:
- golf, where top players can remain highly paid through endorsements even if they’re not near the top of the field,
- basketball, where big contracts are often protected,
- and baseball, where players can stay on rosters longer once established.
- His conclusion: football is the harshest and most merit-based league.
Final Thought
This episode is classic Middlekauff: football analysis mixed with business realism, skepticism about media narratives, and a lot of blunt takes on how teams, leagues, and players actually operate. The biggest throughline is that modern football is shaped as much by randomness, economics, and coaching as it is by raw talent.