Overview of 3 & Out
This episode of 3 & Out covers several of the biggest football talking points of the week: the Falcons’ massive extension for Bijan Robinson, reactions to Sando’s NFL quarterback tiers, the market dynamics around quarterback contracts, and a standout Dan Lanning origin story about grinding his way into coaching. John Middlekauff also answers a mailbag packed with NFL roster-building, trade, and college football realignment questions.
Bijan Robinson’s extension and the evolving running back market
Middlekauff opens with Bijan Robinson becoming the NFL’s highest-paid running back and uses it to argue that the positional market is badly out of sync.
Main takeaways
- Running backs are still underpaid relative to their impact, especially versatile players like Bijan, Christian McCaffrey, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
- He argues these players are not traditional “just carry the ball” backs anymore:
- They can catch 70+ passes.
- They create matchup problems in space.
- They function more like full offensive weapons than old-school RBs.
- He contrasts that with wide receiver contracts, saying many receivers make far more despite being less valuable overall than elite backs or other premium offensive weapons.
- The Saquon Barkley/Eagles example is used as evidence that a great running back can still transform a team when paired with the right offense and line.
Bigger theme
Middlekauff’s broader point is that the NFL’s salary structure is increasingly distorted:
- elite QB, pass rusher, and tackle salaries make sense,
- but several other positions — especially WR and RB — are all over the place in terms of value vs. pay.
Falcons team-building: loaded roster, uncertain direction
The Falcons’ offseason spending is another big topic. Middlekauff notes that Atlanta has extended Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, but remains unconvinced the team is actually close to contention.
His concerns
- He does not trust the coaching situation.
- He does not trust the quarterback situation, especially long-term.
- He sees Atlanta as a team with talent but not a clear path to sustainable success.
- He suggests the Falcons may be trying to build a good roster and “figure out quarterback later,” which he thinks is risky.
He also says he would have at least considered trading Bijan if he believed the team was not headed anywhere meaningful.
Sando’s QB tiers and the quarterback contract conversation
A major chunk of the show is devoted to Middlekauff’s reaction to quarterback rankings and the implications for contract decisions.
Tier distinction
He draws a hard line between:
- Elite, blank-check quarterbacks:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Joe Burrow
and
- The big second tier:
- Dak Prescott
- Jared Goff
- Brock Purdy
- Sam Darnold
- Baker Mayfield
- Jalen Hurts
- C.J. Stroud
- others in that range
Core argument
- The top-tier quarterbacks set the market and are worth it.
- The second-tier QBs are where teams get into trouble:
- they are often paid like stars,
- but they are not likely to win MVPs,
- and if they slip even a little, the contract can sink the franchise.
Specific comments
- Jalen Hurts:
Middlekauff says Hurts cannot be the 17th-ranked quarterback while being paid like a top-end franchise QB. That kind of mismatch creates real cap problems. - C.J. Stroud:
He sees Stroud as a major question mark and thinks Houston would be wise not to rush into a huge extension. - Baker Mayfield / Sam Darnold / Dak / Goff / Purdy:
He views this as the archetype of the modern “good but not elite” QB market — useful enough to win with, but not dependable enough to carry a team. - Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins:
He argues these kinds of contracts have gotten coaches and executives fired when the quarterback play didn’t justify the investment.
The big takeaway
Middlekauff thinks NFL teams are now much more cautious:
- if a quarterback is not clearly in the elite tier,
- teams are increasingly hesitant to give out major long-term money,
- because many of those deals have already proven to be franchise-altering mistakes.
Dan Lanning’s origin story: hustle still matters
One of the strongest segments of the episode is Middlekauff sharing Dan Lanning’s story about getting his first big coaching job.
What happened
- Lanning was told there might be a job at Pitt.
- He never got the follow-up call.
- So he drove 13 hours overnight anyway to show up in person.
- He had a wife, a young child, another baby on the way, and was making only $800 a month.
Why Middlekauff liked it
He uses the story as a lesson in:
- persistence,
- showing up in person,
- and taking initiative when opportunities are hard to reach.
Broader lesson
In a world of texts, emails, DMs, and voicemails, he argues that showing up physically still has enormous power, especially when trying to get noticed professionally.
Mailbag: trades, college football scheduling, and quarterback situations
The mailbag section covers a wide range of football topics.
NFL trade market
A listener asks whether this year has seen more huge trades than any other calendar year in sports.
Middlekauff says:
- the NFL trade market has exploded,
- teams are much more willing to move star players,
- and revenue growth has made owners and GMs more comfortable making aggressive deals.
He points to a league-wide shift where:
- draft picks are more valued,
- teams are less emotionally attached to star contracts,
- and “everybody can be traded” feels more true than ever.
College football scheduling reform
Middlekauff strongly agrees that college football scheduling needs fixing.
His preferred solution
- Power conference teams should be required to play more meaningful conference games.
- Non-conference slates should be more balanced and less full of cupcake matchups.
- He dislikes seeing teams like Texas, USC, and others schedule weak opponents when better games could be made.
He argues the sport needs:
- more parity in scheduling,
- more compelling matchups,
- and less of the current “embarrassment” of weak early-season slates.
Browns quarterback chaos
On Cleveland:
- he thinks the Browns are stuck in a weird quarterback loop,
- with too much money tied up in Deshaun Watson,
- and not enough clarity about the future.
He says the roster is better than the record might suggest, but the quarterback situation keeps them in limbo.
Vita Vea trade speculation
He explains why a team like Tampa Bay would likely prefer to:
- keep Vita Vea,
- let him play out the year,
- and potentially receive a compensatory pick, rather than trade him for less than that value.
Big-picture football themes
The NFL is carried by star quarterbacks
Middlekauff keeps coming back to this idea:
- the league’s excitement depends on elite QB play,
- games between bad quarterbacks are hard to watch,
- and the NFL is lucky to constantly cycle through new stars.
“Keep knocking on the door”
Using Josh Allen and Dan Lanning as examples, he emphasizes:
- sustained effort matters,
- success often comes after repeated failures,
- and eventually opportunity breaks your way if you keep putting yourself in position.
Bottom line
This episode is mainly about how football value is changing:
- running backs are becoming more valuable in today’s offense,
- quarterback pay is getting riskier outside the elite tier,
- and teams are increasingly built around making smart, aggressive bets.
It also includes one of the show’s best motivational moments: Dan Lanning’s story is presented as a reminder that showing up, being persistent, and doing the hard thing still matters.