Overview of Focus Group (The Bulwark)
This episode (S6 Ep21: "The Heebie Jeebie GOP") features Will Sommer, Bulwark reporter and author of the False Flag Newsletter. Host Sarah Longwell and Sommer map the evolving fault lines on the right — between the MAGA establishment and the more extreme, influencer-driven “America First” wing — and report what recent focus groups of swing voters and Gen Z Trump voters reveal about likely 2028 contenders, attitudes toward Israel, the influence of shock-political personalities, and the growing politician‑as‑influencer pipeline.
Topics discussed
- The emerging split on the right: MAGA establishment (party operatives who follow Trump) vs. America First / influencer wing (e.g., Tucker-style, Marjorie Taylor Greene–adjacent figures).
- Voter reactions to potential 2028 figures, especially J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio.
- How swing voters — especially women — view Vance’s persona and policy stances (IVF, family-centered rhetoric).
- Rubio’s rehabilitation as a serious national-security face (secretary of state role) and why some swing voters respect him more now.
- Gen Z Trump voters’ shifting attitudes toward Israel and Gaza, and the role of influencers in shaping that shift.
- The role and reach of extremist/edgy influencers (Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens) and ironic detachment among young followers.
- The rise of novelty/attention-getting candidates (James Fishback) and proposals like an OnlyFans tax as cultural hooks.
- Strategic thoughts for Democrats and mainstream actors on countering influence-driven, polarizing politics in an attention economy.
Key takeaways
- The right is fracturing but fluid: there’s overlap between establishment and influencer wings, and the influencer lane is expanding influence over policy and party discourse.
- J.D. Vance appeals to the online, younger, more hardcore MAGA base but gives many swing voters — especially women — “the heebie‑jeebies” (persona issues, positions on IVF, perceived creepiness).
- Marco Rubio is gaining new respect among some swing voters because his secretary‑of‑state role gives him gravitas and distance from domestic controversy; that may make him more viable in a post‑Trump environment.
- Gen Z and younger Trump voters are more critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza than older conservatives, and that critique is partly independent of, but amplified by, influencer content.
- Influencers like Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens matter: even when followers treat them as “ironic” or “entertainment,” their ideas can seed attitudes and normalize extreme views.
- Novelty candidates who monetize controversy (e.g., the OnlyFans tax angle) can attract substantial online attention even if they perform poorly among actual voters; that attention can seed broader cultural influence.
- The political fight increasingly looks like an attention-economy contest: mainstream forces need to “always be communicating” with concrete, positive policy messaging to compete.
Voter perspectives (high-level summaries)
On J.D. Vance
- Loved by hardcore MAGA and younger online men; seen as Trump‑aligned and an heir apparent.
- Swing voters and many women find him offputting — described as weird, boring, or unsettling; some cite specific policy stances (e.g., IVF) and past comments.
- Tied closely to Trump, which could hurt him if Trump is unpopular by 2028.
On Marco Rubio
- Emerging “strange new respect” among swing voters — perceived as serious, experienced, and credible in foreign policy.
- His cabinet visibility (secretary of state) helps him look statesmanlike and less culpable for domestic grievances, improving electability in broader electorates.
On Israel (Gen Z Trump voters)
- Younger Trump voters express real disgust with Israel’s conduct in Gaza and sympathy for humanitarian concerns; many can see arguments on both sides.
- This is part of a broader cross‑generational shift: young conservatives are more likely to criticize Israel than older conservatives.
- Influencers amplify and exploit that discontent; the phenomenon is bipartisan.
On Nick Fuentes and similar influencers
- Many young followers consume Fuentes’ content as entertaining or “shock humor” while denying full endorsement.
- Irony/detachment masks influence: even when treated as a joke, extremist themes can normalize and spread.
- These personalities serve multiple functions — entertainment, grievance outlet, and community for disaffected young men.
On James Fishback and the OnlyFans tax angle
- Novel, provocative proposals (e.g., taxing OnlyFans creators or buyers) generate viral attention and tap into male grievance about dating/sexual norms.
- Such candidates often perform poorly in real-state polling but can shape cultural narratives and mobilize niche audiences online.
Notable insights/quotes (paraphrased)
- “There’s a driftlessness right now with the Trump agenda — people ask ‘what are we here for?’” (Sommer)
- Swing voters: Rubio “surprised me” and “looks serious” in ways that appeal beyond the MAGA base.
- On influencer effects: “You’d be missing half the story if you ignored these crazy influencers — there’s a market for them.”
- On combating the attention economy: “Always be communicating — put out concrete, positive things that matter to people’s daily lives.”
Implications and recommended approaches
- For Democrats and mainstream actors: prioritize sustained, attention-savvy communication that emphasizes concrete, tangible improvements (cost-of-living, infrastructure, local problems) rather than simply moral condemnation.
- Recognize the dual nature of influencer culture: avoid gratuitously amplifying extremist figures, but don’t ignore their influence — monitor, debunk, and offer compelling alternative narratives that attract attention.
- For those tracking 2028 prospects: Vance is the MAGA media favorite but may be brittle with general election swing voters; Rubio could leverage a statesmanlike track record to broaden appeal if he consolidates establishment and MAGA support.
Produced from a Focus Group episode with Will Sommer; captures episode themes, voter soundbites, and Sommer’s analysis of right‑wing trends and their political consequences.