Overview of S6 Ep64: Focus Group Shows Why Susan Collins is in Trouble
Sarah Longwell and guest Alex Seitz-Wald dig into the Maine Senate race and why Susan Collins is suddenly looking vulnerable despite her long history of outperforming expectations. The episode centers on focus group voters who previously supported both Joe Biden and Collins, and it shows a clear shift: many still like Collins personally, but now believe she has stopped being the independent check on Donald Trump that she once seemed to be. Meanwhile, Democrats’ nominee, Troy Jackson, is not especially beloved or charismatic—but in this environment, he may only need to be a tolerable alternative.
Main Takeaways
Susan Collins’ weakness is not hatred — it’s disappointment
- Voters overwhelmingly describe Collins as smart, decent, and personally likable.
- The emotional tone is “more in sorrow than in anger.”
- Many longtime supporters feel she has changed, especially in the Trump era, and no longer delivers the independence they once valued.
Trump is the central force reshaping the race
- Voters repeatedly tie their Collins doubts to Trump:
- her alignment with him
- her failure to serve as a meaningful check
- their desire for someone in Congress to push back
- In 2020, some voters may have felt Biden would win anyway, making a Collins vote feel safer.
- In 2024, with Trump’s policies directly affecting people, the stakes feel more immediate.
Local economic pain is driving national politics
The most salient issue in the focus groups was heating oil:
- Maine depends heavily on heating oil, especially for winter.
- Prices are hitting households hard, with some families facing huge up-front bills.
- This is compounded by:
- Canadian tariff/trade issues
- broader inflation and grocery costs
- anxiety over retirement savings and fixed incomes
What Voters Said About Susan Collins
Why they used to support her
- She was seen as bipartisan and attentive to Maine’s needs.
- She had a reputation for independence.
- Some voters credited her with tangible help, including support for disability benefits and backing gay marriage early on.
Why they may leave her now
- Many believe she votes with Trump too often.
- Her independence now feels “carefully choreographed,” not substantive.
- A recurring complaint: she talks like a moderate but hasn’t delivered meaningful resistance.
Key line of criticism
- Voters want someone who will actually check Trump, not just posture as independent.
What Voters Said About Troy Jackson
The overall reaction
- Jackson is not generating enthusiasm.
- Many voters see him as:
- a placeholder
- a “generic Democrat”
- not especially smart or polished
- someone they’ll tolerate for six years
Why that may still be enough
- He is perceived as a standard Democrat who will vote with the party.
- In a Collins race, that may be all many voters want.
- Seitz-Wald argues that in this climate, a “warm body” Democrat may be more viable than a more polarizing alternative.
His strengths
- Better than expected in debates.
- Skilled at inside politics and labor organizing.
- Comes across best when fighting under pressure rather than giving polished stump speeches.
Minor Liabilities That Surfaced
The cousin issue
- Voters repeatedly brought up the fact that Jackson’s life partner is his second cousin.
- It seems to be one of the few memorable attacks circulating about him.
- Most respondents did not say it would change their vote, but they did think it looked odd or unflattering.
The “shut up” debate moment
- Jackson told a heckler to “shut up” at a debate.
- That moment was widely viewed as childish or unpresidential.
- Again, it annoyed voters, but probably did not decide the race.
Bigger Structural Argument: The End of the Maine Moderate Republican Era
Alex Seitz-Wald argues that Collins represents the last real link to Maine’s old tradition of independent-minded Republican figures:
- Margaret Chase Smith
- Olympia Snowe
- Bill Cohen
- Susan Collins
If Collins loses, that lineage likely ends. The Maine GOP now looks much more Trump-aligned and less like the old Yankee moderate tradition. That makes her defeat politically significant even for people who think she deserves to lose.
Final Assessment
- Collins is still a formidable candidate, and Maine can still surprise late.
- But the mood in the focus groups suggests a meaningful shift:
- voters still like her
- they just no longer trust her to stand apart from Trump
- Troy Jackson is not exciting, but he may benefit from being the simple, non-Collins alternative in a cycle defined by anti-Trump sentiment and economic strain.
Notable Recommendation / Implication
If Democrats are hoping to beat Collins, this episode suggests the winning message is not necessarily about loving Troy Jackson—it’s about making Collins feel like a failed promise on independence and accountability.