S6 Ep62: Republicans Thought Florida Was Safe. Then Everything Changed (with Kimberly Leonard)

Summary of S6 Ep62: Republicans Thought Florida Was Safe. Then Everything Changed (with Kimberly Leonard)

by The Bulwark

1h 9m•October 10, 2026
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Overview of S6 Ep62: Republicans Thought Florida Was Safe. Then Everything Changed (with Kimberly Leonard)

This episode of The Focus Group examines why Florida, long seen as reliably red, is suddenly back in play in several key races. Host Sarah Longwell talks with Politico Florida Playbook’s Kimberly Leonard about the state’s shifting political terrain, including the governor’s race and U.S. Senate race. The big takeaway: Republicans still have structural advantages in Florida, but anger over Trump, immigration, prices, data centers, and candidate quality has made this cycle far more unpredictable than the last two.

Main Takeaways

  • Florida is more competitive than expected

    • Despite recent GOP dominance, both the governor’s race and Senate race appear closer than Republicans would like.
    • Leonard says the state feels fundamentally different from the last two cycles and is harder to read.

  • Trump is both a motivator and a drag

    • Republicans see Trump as energizing their base but damaging their broader appeal.
    • Disaffected Trump voters in the focus group often liked individual Republican candidates but recoiled from their proximity to Trump.

  • Ron DeSantis still matters

    • DeSantis remains popular with Republican voters in Florida, even if his national brand has weakened.
    • But Republicans running this cycle want more visible help from him than they’re getting.

  • Issue salience is unusual this cycle

    • Immigration/mass deportations, cost of living, data centers, AI, and self-dealing scandals were all major concerns.
    • Hispanic voters, especially in South Florida, appear more open to Democrats than in past cycles.

Florida Governor’s Race: Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly

Byron Donalds

  • Donalds is viewed by many Republicans as:
    • Well-spoken
    • Strong
    • Capable of continuing DeSantis’s agenda
  • But he also faces problems:
    • Too closely tied to Trump
    • Criticism over stock ownership
    • Backlash over data center support and outside money tied to AI/data-center interests
  • Several voters liked him but wanted him to distance himself from Trump more clearly.

David Jolly

  • Jolly’s appeal is that he is:
    • A former Republican running as a Democrat
    • Calm, credible, and willing to show up everywhere
    • A grinder who holds town halls and answers tough questions
  • His downside:
    • Seen by some as too nice or too moderate for a highly emotional political environment
    • Some Democrats remain wary of his past as a Republican
  • Leonard argues that Jolly’s style could help him with persuadable voters, but might not be enough to fully energize the base.

Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon

Ashley Moody

  • Moody is portrayed as:
    • Cautious
    • Low-profile
    • Running a highly controlled, almost “basement” campaign
  • Voters criticized her for:
    • Being linked to Trump
    • Stock-market enrichment concerns
    • Avoiding tough questions and public scrutiny
  • Republicans also wish she were more visible and more aggressive on the trail.

Angie Nixon

  • Nixon is the most energetic and surprising figure in the episode:
    • A fighter with strong grassroots energy
    • Deeply active across the state
    • Willing to go to rural counties, immigrant communities, and hostile territory
  • Her strengths:
    • Authenticity
    • Relatability
    • A clear anti-establishment, pro-working-people message
  • Her vulnerabilities:
    • Association with democratic socialism
    • Past comments/resolutions viewed by some Jewish Democrats as antisemitic
    • The risk that her unscripted style creates attack material
  • Leonard says Nixon has real momentum and enthusiasm behind her, but also real liabilities.

Why Florida Is Suddenly in Play

1. Immigration backlash

  • Mass deportations and TPS-related issues are hitting Florida’s large immigrant communities hard.
  • Focus group participants described real-life consequences in schools, hospitals, and neighborhoods.

2. Cost of living and migration

  • High prices and rapid in-migration remain major pain points.
  • Even voters who like DeSantis don’t necessarily connect him to those problems.

3. Data centers and AI

  • Data centers came up as a surprisingly potent issue.
  • Voters dislike:
    • Noise and land use
    • Energy demand
    • Environmental concerns
    • The fear that these projects will replace jobs or harm communities

4. Republican candidate weakness

  • Leonard repeatedly emphasizes that both Republican candidates are viewed as less-than-ideal campaigners.
  • That creates an opening in a state where Democrats usually need near-perfect conditions.

5. Hispanic voter movement

  • Florida’s Latino voters, especially in Miami-Dade and other immigrant-heavy areas, may be shifting more than in the past.
  • Democrats need that shift plus strong turnout to break through.

Strategic Read on the State

  • Republicans still have the edge on paper
    • Money advantage
    • Registration advantage
    • Stronger statewide infrastructure
  • But the floor is lower than expected
    • Trump fatigue
    • Candidate-specific weaknesses
    • Anxiety among Republican voters
  • Democrats could benefit if
    • Low-propensity anti-Trump voters turn out
    • Hispanic voters move further away from Republicans
    • DeSantis stays only partially engaged
    • The mood stays as anti-incumbent as it currently feels

Bottom Line

Florida does not look like a guaranteed Republican safe state anymore. Kimberly Leonard’s view is that Republicans still hold important advantages, but the combination of Trump backlash, DeSantis fatigue, immigration anger, and weak candidate dynamics has made both the governor’s race and Senate race genuinely worth watching. Her core conclusion: Florida is likely to be tight, maybe even surprisingly tight, even if Democrats still face an uphill climb.

Notable Framing From the Episode

  • DeSantis is still popular, but not universally celebrated.
  • Donalds is acceptable to many Republicans, but too Trump-aligned for some disaffected voters.
  • Jolly may be a stronger retail politician than expected, even if his moderation is a liability.
  • Nixon is the wildcard: energetic, authentic, and polarizing.
  • Moody’s low-key, carefully managed campaign may be underestimating the intensity of the environment.

Final Takeaway

If Florida flips or even gets close, it would signal a major change in the national political map. The episode’s central insight is that Florida’s politics are no longer just about party loyalty — they’re about turnout, tone, candidate quality, and whether voters who are angry at Trump and the GOP are willing to actually show up in November.