Overview of The Bulwark’s Ohio Election Deep Dive
This episode examines why Ohio, long seen as a reliably red state, is suddenly competitive again in 2026. Sarah Longwell and guest Andrew Tobias of Signal Ohio focus on two high-stakes statewide races—the U.S. Senate contest and the governor’s race—and explain how data centers, candidate biographies, and a broader anti-incumbent / anti-establishment mood are reshaping the map. The big theme: Republicans are running into serious headwinds in a state Donald Trump won by 11 points, and in both major races the GOP candidates are being defined by their opponents more than by their own strengths.
Main Takeaways
- Data centers have become a surprisingly potent Ohio issue because voters associate them with:
- higher electric bills,
- loss of farmland / rural land use,
- water use and resource strain,
- and the sense that tech development is being forced on communities.
- Sherrod Brown is benefiting from that issue in the Senate race by leaning into a populist, anti–data center message.
- John Husted remains largely undefined to voters, and that lack of identity is hurting him as Brown defines him through the data-center fight.
- In the governor’s race, Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy are both polarizing and weakly defined in different ways, which has kept the contest very close.
- The episode repeatedly returns to the idea that Republicans are more demoralized than Democrats right now, especially among Trump voters who are dissatisfied with the current direction of the party and the country.
Ohio Senate Race: Sherrod Brown vs. John Husted
Why Brown Is Competitive Again
Brown, who lost reelection in 2024, is polling well because he’s running as a fighter against an issue voters already understand and dislike: data centers. Tobias argues that Brown is campaigning more aggressively and more comfortably than in 2024, when he was mostly on defense.
Brown’s strategy:
- attack the data center buildout,
- tie Husted to the policy decisions that enabled it,
- and frame the issue as a working-class, local quality-of-life concern rather than a tech-growth debate.
Why Husted Is Struggling
Husted, the former secretary of state and lieutenant governor who was appointed to the Senate seat, is still trying to introduce himself to voters. That’s a problem because:
- he has not run statewide on his own in years,
- voters don’t know much about him,
- and his past support for data centers is now a liability.
The episode notes that Republicans originally expected the data-center boom to be a sign of economic progress and growth. Instead, it has become a symbol of:
- corporate overreach,
- rising utility costs,
- and land-use conflict.
Brown’s Other Advantage
Brown also benefits from a broader political environment in which:
- Democrats appear more motivated,
- Republicans sound more resigned,
- and midterm-style turnout dynamics could help Democrats.
Governor’s Race: Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
Amy Acton’s Position
Acton, the former Ohio health director during COVID, is still defined by her pandemic role. Voters remember her from the daily briefings, and opinions are mixed:
- Some see her as competent and serious.
- Others blame her for lockdown-era restrictions and overreach.
- Republicans have also pushed a rumor-laden narrative about a drinking incident, which Tobias says has been amplified by conservative media and advertising.
Acton has also made some deliberate moves to soften her image for a red state:
- supporting Ohio’s ban on transgender athletes in girls’ and women’s sports,
- backing work requirements for Medicaid recipients,
- and presenting herself as more moderate than a national Democrat.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Position
Ramaswamy has money, name recognition, and a strong media profile, but the episode suggests he still has a fit problem in Ohio:
- he is seen as wealthy and somewhat detached,
- his pharma background and the origin of his wealth have become a target,
- and his earlier pro–data center remarks are now working against him.
Even though he’s spent heavily through his own campaign and allies, Acton remains competitive. Tobias emphasizes that this is notable in a state that leans Republican and with a candidate who has poured in enormous resources.
What’s Driving the Close Race
The race is close because:
- Acton is familiar but disliked by some voters,
- Ramaswamy is famous but not fully trusted or rooted,
- both campaigns are heavily negative,
- and voters are clearly tired of being bombarded with attack ads.
What Voters in the Groups Revealed
Across both races, the focus group voters were consistent about a few things:
- They dislike data centers.
- They are suspicious of politicians and big institutions.
- Many are frustrated enough that they consider not voting at all.
- Trump voters are not automatically loyal to every Republican candidate.
A few recurring voter sentiments:
- “I don’t really know much about him” — about Husted.
- “I don’t want data centers” — a frequent theme.
- “The lesser of two evils” — a common framing for both races.
- “I don’t believe anything anymore” — a sign of broader distrust.
Bigger Picture
The episode suggests that Ohio is not simply “back” as a swing state in the old sense. Instead, it’s competitive because of a mix of:
- a national environment that is less favorable to Republicans than expected,
- specific local backlash against data centers,
- and weak Republican candidate brands in both major statewide races.
The overall takeaway is that Sherrod Brown is exploiting a real populist opening, while Husted and Ramaswamy are both having trouble turning money, name recognition, and party advantage into durable support.