Overview of S6 Ep58: Something's Happening in Texas (with Chris Hooks)
Sarah Longwell and Texas journalist Christopher Hooks dig into why Texas may be more competitive than usual in 2024, using fresh polling and focus-group reactions from Trump voters who disapprove of Trump. The episode focuses on how voters are responding to Ken Paxton, James Talarico, and Greg Abbott, and why issues like corruption, school vouchers, surveillance cameras, data centers, and immigration are shaping the political mood in Texas.
Ken Paxton: Corruption Is the Brand
Christopher Hooks argues that Paxton’s biggest problem is not just scandal, but that voters have absorbed a broad sense that he is untrustworthy and ethically compromised.
- Many voters know Paxton as a “crook,” even if they don’t know the full details of each scandal.
- Hooks says Paxton is a classic Texas political operator who got used to winning through behind-the-scenes dealmaking rather than campaigning.
- He never had to become a strong retail politician, so his general-election skills are weak.
- National Republicans appear reluctant to pour money into Texas, suggesting they may see Paxton as more of a liability than an asset.
- Some Republicans think that if Paxton loses, it will be because Paxton himself is flawed, not because Texas has truly turned blue.
James Talarico: A More Acceptable Democrat for Some Trump Disapprovers
The focus groups showed surprising openness toward Talarico among some Trump-averse voters.
- Voters often described him as smart, articulate, kind, and credible.
- His background as a teacher and his more polished campaign style helped him with some moderates.
- Several voters said he seemed like the “lesser of two evils” compared with Paxton.
- Still, his appeal is limited by cultural and ideological concerns:
- opposition to his positions on gender and trans issues,
- discomfort with his views on government and regulation,
- distrust of Democrats more broadly.
Notable focus-group pattern
When asked for a gut reaction, the group split more favorably toward Talarico than Paxton, with five for Talarico, three for Paxton, and one undecided.
Greg Abbott: Still Strong, but More Vulnerable Than Usual
Abbott remains the strongest Republican statewide figure in Texas, but the episode suggests he is not as insulated as he once was.
- Some voters are showing incumbent fatigue after 12 years in office.
- Abbott’s vulnerabilities include:
- school vouchers, especially among rural Republicans who feel the policy favors wealthy families and cities,
- the state’s messy THC crackdown/partial ban,
- Flock cameras and broader surveillance concerns,
- data centers, especially around energy, water, and privacy,
- backlash to symbolic culture-war stances, like blocking airport foot-washing stations.
Hooks says Abbott is usually effective at redirecting public anger and framing himself as above politics, but that advantage is fading as Texas grows, becomes richer, and gets more diverse.
Key Issues Driving Texas Voters
Several themes came up repeatedly in the focus groups:
- Corruption and trust matter a lot, even when voters can’t recite the full scandal.
- Culture-war issues still motivate many Republicans, especially around trans issues and religion.
- Privacy and surveillance are emerging as real concerns, especially with Flock cameras and data collection.
- Rural resentment is growing over policies that seem to benefit urban and suburban areas more than rural communities.
- Growth backlash is becoming more visible: voters are uneasy about the consequences of Texas’s rapid expansion, especially around water, energy, and development.
Bigger Takeaways
- Texas may be more competitive than its reputation suggests, especially if Democrats can capitalize on GOP infighting and local dissatisfaction.
- National Republican hesitation to invest heavily could be a sign that some GOP leaders do not fully trust Paxton or want to spend resources in Texas.
- Abbott still has the advantage, but his coalition is showing cracks.
- The Texas GOP may be moving toward a newer, harsher style of politics that is more openly anti-diversity and anti-immigration than the older Rick Perry/Greg Abbott model.
Bottom Line
The episode’s central argument is that Texas is not suddenly turning blue, but it is showing real signs of political churn. Paxton is widely seen as corrupt, Talarico is surprisingly viable with some swingy voters, and Abbott is more exposed than he has been in years. The state’s politics now seem to be driven as much by backlash to growth, surveillance, and culture-war excess as by traditional partisanship.