S6 Ep40: Tim Miller: Good Riddance, Bill Cassidy?

Summary of S6 Ep40: Tim Miller: Good Riddance, Bill Cassidy?

by The Bulwark

53m•May 9, 2026
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Overview of S6 Ep40: Tim Miller: Good Riddance, Bill Cassidy?

Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller break down Louisiana Republican focus groups ahead of the state’s primary, with a sharp focus on Senator Bill Cassidy’s political collapse after voting to convict Donald Trump. The episode also explores what Louisiana Republicans actually want from their candidates, why Julia Letlow and John Fleming feel unconvincing, why Marco Rubio is gaining surprising traction as a “competent” MAGA-adjacent figure, and why Don Jr. still feels premature as a national successor. Underneath it all is a broader theme: voters are not thinking in neat ideological lanes so much as they are sorting politicians into insiders vs. insurgents, authentic vs. fake, and who seems most aligned with their material concerns.

Bill Cassidy’s Problem: One Brave Vote, Then a Long Retreat

Why Cassidy is in trouble

  • Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump after Jan. 6 is still the defining issue for many Louisiana Republicans.
  • The episode argues that he initially deserved credit for taking that stand, but lost much of that goodwill by later trying to win MAGA approval.
  • His support for RFK Jr.’s confirmation as HHS secretary is presented as especially damaging and inconsistent with his medical background.

Voters’ reaction

  • Focus group participants describe Cassidy as:
    • “slimy”
    • “wishy-washy”
    • “two-faced”
    • more interested in keeping his job than standing for principles
  • The resentment is not subtle: many voters say they simply cannot vote for him because he moved against Trump.

Sarah and Tim’s view

  • Both hosts wrestle with whether Cassidy deserves any lingering grace for the impeachment vote.
  • Their conclusion: a brave vote doesn’t excuse later behavior that appears cynical, fake, or harmful.

Louisiana GOP Primary: A Race Driven by Trump Loyalty, Not Enthusiasm

The state of the field

  • The episode centers on a three-way Republican primary involving:
    • Bill Cassidy
    • Julia Letlow, Trump’s endorsed candidate
    • John Fleming, the 74-year-old state treasurer
  • The hosts note that Cassidy could even finish third, which would trigger a runoff.

What voters think of Letlow and Fleming

  • Neither candidate inspires much excitement.
  • Letlow gets some benefit from being Trump-endorsed and from her personal story as a widow and mother.
  • Fleming is sometimes viewed as steadier or more conservative, but many voters know little about him beyond vague impressions.
  • A recurring theme is that both candidates feel like placeholders rather than true contenders with a compelling identity.

Broader takeaway

  • The campaign feels heavily ad-driven and fake to the voters.
  • The candidates are largely defined by negative messaging and accusations of being “not MAGA enough.”

What Louisiana Republicans Actually Want

Not just ideology

The episode makes a strong point that voters are not operating on a simple left-right spectrum. Instead, they are responding to:

  • authenticity vs. phoniness
  • anti-elite sentiment
  • populist energy
  • someone who seems willing to fight

Material concerns matter most

Sarah argues that voters are most responsive to politicians who focus on:

  • jobs
  • cost of living
  • healthcare
  • education
  • affordability
  • border management
  • practical day-to-day concerns

Cultural issues are often distractions

  • Many voters seem tired of candidates leading with DEI, trans issues, or other cultural flashpoints.
  • The hosts suggest those issues can be mobilizing when provoked, but they are not what most voters are organizing their lives around.

Marco Rubio Is Suddenly Looking Good to Republican Voters

Why Rubio is getting praise

The episode highlights a surprising pattern in focus groups: Republicans increasingly describe Marco Rubio as:

  • calm
  • level-headed
  • confident
  • bilingual
  • competent
  • mature enough to “mend fences”

JD Vance comparison

  • Vance is often described as:
    • too aggressive
    • too much like Trump
    • less polished
  • Some voters appear to like Rubio less as a stand-alone figure and more as the “not JD Vance” option.

Why this matters

  • Sarah and Tim see this as a sign that some Republican voters may be open to a more “MAGA establishment” figure rather than an insurgent personality.
  • Rubio’s rise may reflect a desire for a more competent, less chaotic version of Trumpism.

Don Jr.: Possible Down the Road, Not Yet

Current voter reaction

  • Don Jr. does not have much real support in the focus groups.
  • Most respondents do not see him as ready for the presidency.
  • His association with Trump helps, but his own qualifications are viewed skeptically.

The main objection

  • Voters generally don’t see him as experienced or serious enough.
  • Even sympathetic listeners say “not in 2028,” though maybe someday later.

Tim’s caveat

  • He says a campaign could change the picture if:
    • no better Republican emerges
    • Trump fully blesses Don Jr.
    • the political environment becomes more chaotic
  • But right now, Don Jr. reads more like a dynasty placeholder than a serious successor.

Bigger Political Themes

Populism is still the organizing force

  • The conversation returns repeatedly to the idea that Republicans and Democrats alike are shifting toward anti-elite, anti-establishment politics.
  • The likely winning candidate is not necessarily the most conservative or most moderate, but the one who seems most willing to fight the system.

Voters backfill their reasons

  • One of the episode’s sharpest insights is that many voters decide first who they like and then invent the rationale afterward.
  • That’s why Rubio can be “calm and level-headed” while Trump is praised for being blunt and strong, despite obvious contradictions.

The coalition could still realign

  • Sarah and Tim both suggest that party coalitions are not fixed.
  • A new kind of populist or insurgent politician could still re-shape the right, especially if they connect with economic frustration and anti-elite anger.

Key Takeaways

  • Bill Cassidy’s post-impeachment pivot has alienated the very voters he once alienated Trump for.
  • Louisiana Republican voters are not excited about their choices; they mostly want someone who feels authentic and anti-establishment.
  • Julia Letlow and John Fleming benefit more from anti-Cassidy sentiment than from genuine enthusiasm.
  • Marco Rubio is emerging as an unexpected favorite because he looks competent, calm, and less chaotic than JD Vance.
  • Don Jr. is not yet seen as a real presidential contender, despite his family name.
  • The episode’s larger argument is that today’s politics is less about old ideological labels and more about authenticity, anti-elite energy, and material concerns.