Overview of Trumpism Is Backfiring
In this New York Times Opinion conversation, Ezra Klein speaks with former Canadian deputy prime minister and trade negotiator Chrystia Freeland about how Donald Trump’s second-term foreign policy is reshaping America’s relationship with allies, especially Canada. Freeland argues that Trump’s tariffs and sovereignty rhetoric are not strengthening the U.S. but instead pushing allies to diversify away from America, deepen ties with each other, and see the U.S. as less reliable than even China in some cases. The discussion centers on trade, retaliation, the psychology of deterrence and appeasement, and the risk that Trumpism is accelerating a more predatory, less rules-based global order.
Main Argument
Trump’s approach is provoking resistance, not submission
Freeland’s core point is that Trump’s pressure tactics are backfiring:
- Canada is responding with retaliation rather than capitulation.
- Other allies are looking for ways to reduce dependence on the U.S.
- Trump’s efforts to extract concessions are making America seem less trustworthy and more coercive.
The result, she argues, is not greater U.S. power, but a weaker alliance system and a more isolated America.
The U.S.-Canada relationship has deteriorated sharply
Freeland says Canadian public opinion has flipped since 2023:
- Canadians increasingly see the U.S. as an enemy, not an ally.
- China’s favorability in Canada has risen relative to America.
- Trump’s tariffs and talk of Canada becoming the “51st state” have triggered a major political and emotional backlash.
Trade War and Economic Consequences
Why Canada can still hurt the U.S.
Freeland explains that Canada may be the smaller economy, but it can still inflict meaningful pain:
- Canada exports many intermediate goods to the U.S. — inputs used in American manufacturing.
- Tariffs on Canadian aluminum, lumber, potash, and similar goods raise costs inside the U.S.
- Retaliatory tariffs can be strategically aimed at politically sensitive regions and industries.
Why aluminum is such a good example
She highlights that aluminum is effectively “electricity in solid form”:
- Canada’s aluminum production depends heavily on cheap hydroelectricity.
- Tariffs on aluminum are effectively taxes on American industrial inputs and energy use.
- That makes Trump’s tariffs costly for U.S. businesses and consumers, not just Canada.
Retaliation as strategy
Freeland describes how Canada retaliates:
- Target products that are easy to substitute.
- Avoid hurting domestic industry more than necessary.
- Focus on goods tied to key U.S. political constituencies so pressure reaches Congress and the White House.
Trump 1 vs. Trump 2
Same instincts, different environment
Freeland argues Trump himself is not fundamentally different between terms, but the political environment is:
- In the first term, there were more independent Republican voices willing to check him.
- In the second term, the Republican Party is more tightly controlled.
- Corporate and institutional capitulation is much broader now, which emboldens Trump.
From trade disputes to a broader dominance project
Klein presses the point that Trump 2 feels less about trade and more about domination and tribute. Freeland agrees:
- Trump’s current approach is more explicitly about submission and hierarchy.
- Canada, and allies more broadly, are being forced to choose between vassalage and resistance.
- That makes compromise much harder, because the issue is no longer just tariffs; it’s sovereignty and status.
China, Alliances, and the New Global Order
The biggest beneficiary is China
Freeland warns that Trump’s behavior is helping Beijing:
- Allies now see the U.S. as more threatening and less predictable.
- China benefits when America undermines trust in the alliance system.
- Countries are increasingly hedging by building alternative trade, military, and tech relationships.
A world of balancing between predatory powers
The conversation lands on a grim geopolitical picture:
- The U.S. under Trump looks less like a benign leader and more like a predatory hegemon.
- China is also predatory, but more predictable in how it behaves.
- That leaves democratic middle powers stuck between two great powers rather than inside a stable alliance order.
Why the postwar American model mattered
Freeland says the U.S. once stood apart because it built alliances that made allies stronger:
- The postwar American system was based on mutual prosperity and collective security.
- That model distinguished the U.S. from the Soviet Union and from China.
- Trumpism, she argues, is dismantling that advantage and moving America toward a more kleptocratic, rent-seeking model.
Business, Capitulation, and Oligarchic Incentives
Why big business is quieter now
Klein and Freeland discuss the shift in elite behavior:
- In Trump’s first term, many CEOs and major donors resisted him more openly.
- In the second term, more business leaders have accommodated him.
- Freeland sees that as both fear-driven and self-interested.
The danger of a rent-seeking system
She warns that tariffs are not just trade policy; they can become a tool of corruption:
- Firms learn that pleasing the president may bring favors.
- Political loyalty becomes an economic advantage.
- Over time, that creates a feedback loop where power and wealth reinforce each other in unhealthy ways.
Historical warning from Russia
Freeland draws on her experience in post-Soviet Russia:
- Oligarchs believed they could control Putin.
- Instead, Putin used them until he consolidated power.
- She sees a similar risk in American plutocrats thinking they can manage Trump while benefiting from the system he is building.
What Would a Better Deal Look Like?
A possible off-ramp
Freeland says the U.S. and Canada don’t necessarily need a full deal immediately; they need a ceasefire on further tariffs while negotiations continue.
A workable broader deal would likely include:
- Reaffirming the U.S. as a reliable trading partner.
- Creating a coordinated approach to China.
- Preserving trade among allies while reducing dangerous dependence on China.
What allies should do
Her preferred response is coordinated pushback:
- Canada, the EU, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other democracies should respond together.
- Allies should not accept unilateral tariffs.
- U.S. business leaders and Republicans should say more openly that this is harmful and unnecessary.
Notable Insights
- “We do not escalate and we do not back down.” Freeland describes this as the steadier, more effective way to deal with Trump.
- Trump’s foreign policy is not just hurting Canada; it is making America less rich, less secure, and less free.
- The key battleground for liberal democracy, in Freeland’s view, is now the United States itself.
- A benign America once helped guarantee fairer outcomes abroad; that stabilizing force is weakening.
Recommended Books from Chrystia Freeland
Freeland closes by recommending three books:
-
The Dispossessed — Ursula K. Le Guin
A sci-fi novel about scarcity, freedom, and principled resistance. -
The Player of Games — Iain M. Banks
Another science-fiction favorite, darker but still hopeful. -
Book of Lives: A Memoir of Sorts — Margaret Atwood
She recommends it as both a literary memoir and a distinctly Canadian story.
Bottom Line
The episode argues that Trump’s tariff-heavy, dominance-driven foreign policy is not restoring American strength. Instead, it is pushing allies away, encouraging retaliation, empowering China, and encouraging a more corrupt, unstable international system. Freeland’s central warning is that if America becomes unreliable, coercive, and transactional in the most destructive sense, it will eventually face a world organized against it rather than around it.