Overview of Does Trump Want to Lose the Midterms?
This New York Times Opinion conversation argues that Donald Trump is not primarily trying to maximize Republican performance in the 2026 midterms; instead, he appears more focused on consolidating his personal control over the GOP. Host Ezra Klein makes the case that Trump may be willing to risk a weaker Republican showing if it helps him purge disloyal Republicans, strengthen his grip on the party, and keep himself politically central. Republican strategist Liam Donovan agrees that Trump’s incentives are unusual, but he adds that the party has largely adapted to Trump’s style of politics and is now operating in a more coordinated, Trump-shaped system.
Core Argument: Trump Cares More About the GOP Than Congress
Trump’s incentive structure
- Trump is portrayed as valuing loyalty and domination of the Republican Party over helping Republicans win the broadest possible coalition.
- The argument is that Trump is less concerned with congressional majorities than with preventing Republicans from becoming independent of him.
- A Democratic Congress, while bad for Republicans, could still be useful to Trump because it gives him an enemy and reinforces his persecution narrative.
Evidence cited in the discussion
- Trump’s approval is unusually weak for a second-term president, and he is not behaving like someone trying to win over swing voters.
- Instead of moving to the center, he is:
- backing a controversial fund tied to January 6 rioters,
- endorsing Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas,
- targeting Republicans like Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy,
- attacking swing-district Republicans such as Brian Fitzpatrick,
- and escalating foreign-policy rhetoric around Iran.
- Klein frames these moves as proof that Trump is willing to burn Republican electoral prospects if it strengthens his control.
Republican Strategist’s View: The Party Has Learned to Live With Trump
How Liam Donovan interprets Trump’s decline
- Donovan says Trump’s weakness reflects both:
- disappointment from voters who wanted a return to pre-COVID stability, and
- policy choices that are more about legacy and ideology than immediate electoral gain.
- He argues that Trump’s first term was politically “buffered” by institutional Republicans, while his second term has more loyalists and fewer guardrails.
- That means Trump is now seeing what it looks like to get the full version of what he asked for.
Why Republicans still matter to Trump
- Donovan agrees Trump is highly sensitive to fealty and control.
- He suggests Trump’s behavior is shaped by the belief that Republicans will mostly follow him anyway, because opposing him usually hurts them more than it helps.
- In Donovan’s view, Trump may not be trying to lose, but he is willing to make choices that prioritize domination over optimization.
Key Senate and House Races Discussed
North Carolina
- Seen as the best pickup opportunity for Democrats.
- Former Gov. Roy Cooper is described as a strong candidate.
- Open-seat dynamics and Trump’s tension with the outgoing Republican incumbent make this seat especially vulnerable.
Maine
- Susan Collins remains the central question mark.
- Maine is treated as the race where candidate quality and state identity matter most.
- Democrat Graham Platner is described as a high-variance candidate who may energize some voters but also has attack surface.
Ohio
- Sherrod Brown is viewed as a strong Democrat, but the state’s Republican tilt remains a major obstacle.
- John Husted is seen as a safer Republican than some previous GOP nominees.
- Brown’s path depends heavily on a strong anti-Republican wave.
Texas
- Texas is framed as expensive, resource-intensive, and potentially decisive only in a very strong Democratic year.
- Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn could make the race more volatile.
- Donovan argues Texas is more likely to be part of a broad Democratic surge than the single seat that flips the Senate by itself.
Alaska
- Mary Peltola is seen as a strong candidate with a real opportunity in a small, expensive market.
- But Republicans are not nearly as divided as they were in earlier Alaska races, making the path harder than some Democrats hope.
Iowa
- Republicans are favored, but the race could become more interesting because of national anti-Trump sentiment and state-level dynamics.
- The open-seat nature of the race makes it more open than it would be with an incumbent.
Michigan
- Republicans see opportunity because the Democratic primary may produce a weaker nominee.
- The Democratic race is described as internally messy, with ideological and Gaza-related tensions shaping the field.
- Even so, Donovan still thinks the race could remain competitive.
Bigger Political Themes
Attention politics is reshaping elections
- The discussion repeatedly returns to the idea that attention now matters as much as institutions.
- Candidates like Trump, Mamdani, James Talarico, and Graham Platner are framed as examples of politicians who can win by dominating attention online.
- This creates a challenge for old-style incumbents who relied on party networks, endorsements, and local elites.
The Republican coalition is splitting by media culture and age
- A major theme is the divide between:
- Fox News / older / pro-Israel / establishment conservatives, and
- YouTube / podcast / younger / anti-establishment conservatives.
- Klein argues these groups may be less reconcilable than Donovan thinks.
- They clash over Israel, Iran, and broader foreign-policy attitudes.
Foreign policy is becoming a generational fault line
- The transcript highlights how Israel, Gaza, and Iran are dividing both parties, but especially Republicans.
- Younger Republicans are increasingly skeptical of interventionist or pro-war positions.
- Older Republicans are more aligned with traditional Christian Zionist or pro-Israel politics.
- This could become a serious issue in 2028 and beyond.
Overall Takeaway
The conversation’s central conclusion is that Trump’s politics are less about winning the next congressional election and more about preserving personal power inside the Republican Party. Republicans can still win in many places if they avoid bad candidates and manage the map well, but Trump’s interventions often make that harder. The strategist’s broader point is that the GOP has adapted to Trump better than in earlier cycles, yet the party still faces a long-term problem: it has become dependent on a leader whose instincts are often more about loyalty tests, conflict, and dominance than building a durable governing coalition.
Recommended Reading Mentioned
- Matt Continetti, The Right — a history of the modern Republican Party and its populist, anti-establishment strains.
- Patrick McGee, Apple in China — on industrial policy, supply chains, and national security.
- Abundance / The Frackers — discussed as useful for understanding energy politics and the shift from scarcity to abundance.