Overview of Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
This Dispatch roundtable examines whether Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings will drag down Republicans in the 2026 midterms, or whether his continued dominance inside the GOP still makes him the party’s best turnout weapon. The panel also digs into a volatile Michigan Senate race featuring Abdul El-Sayed and the controversy around his ties to Hasan Piker, then each host picks one race they’ll be watching closely this fall. The episode ends with a lighter debate about fantasy football and whether it’s worth the trouble.
Trump, Approval Ratings, and the Midterm Strategy
The conversation begins with Trump’s poor polling and the political dilemma facing Republicans:
- Trump’s approval is deeply underwater in the RCP average:
- Overall approval: -16.7
- Economy: -26.7
- Inflation: -39.1
- Foreign policy: -19.9
- Iran: -26.5
- Immigration: -9.8
- Republicans are trying to localize competitive House and Senate races, but Trump is still insisting on being the central figure.
- His super PAC has already run ads that are heavily, or entirely, Trump-centric.
The panel’s main debate
- Mike Warren argues that Trump being front and center is rational, even if it may not be effective:
- Trump remains the most powerful figure in the GOP.
- He can still energize Republican voters who otherwise lack enthusiasm.
- Republicans may have no better option than to run with the party leader they have.
- John McCormick is much more skeptical:
- Trump’s numbers are bad enough that making the election a referendum on him is likely a losing move.
- Voters already know who Trump is; ads won’t change that.
- He sees the strategy as driven more by Trump’s ego than by a real campaign theory.
- Jonah Goldberg agrees the strategy is unlikely to help:
- Trump’s flaws are already well known and rooted in voters’ real experiences with inflation, tariffs, and foreign policy.
- People trust their own pocketbook and daily-life experiences more than partisan messaging.
A possible hidden strategy in Trump ads
Jonah argues the ad mix may reflect a split between:
- Issue-based ads: tax cuts, tips, Social Security, etc.
- Personality-cult ads: pure Trump image and branding.
His theory: the campaign may be feeding Trump the flashy, personality-heavy spots he wants while quietly running the issue ads where they matter.
Trump and Hispanic Voters: South Texas Warning Signs
Mike highlights new polling in three South Texas congressional districts with large Hispanic populations:
- These districts were redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans.
- Even so, Democrats are ahead in all three.
- Trump won all three districts in 2024, which makes the current numbers especially concerning.
- Trump’s approval in those areas is now underwater.
- Even Governor Greg Abbott is showing weakness there.
Why it matters
The panel sees this as a major warning sign for the GOP’s hoped-for realignment among Hispanic working-class voters:
- Trump’s 2024 gains with Hispanic voters may not be durable.
- Immigration enforcement tactics and economic pain from tariffs may be alienating voters.
- The “cross-ethnic working-class coalition” Republicans hoped for looks shakier than expected.
Michigan Senate Race: Abdul El-Sayed, Hasan Piker, and Democratic Infighting
The Michigan Senate race is presented as one of the cycle’s most interesting and volatile contests.
Where things stand
- Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat, is polling competitively and in several polls leads Republican Mike Rogers.
- But he has struggled to consolidate support from the broader Democratic coalition.
The Hasan Piker problem
The biggest controversy is El-Sayed’s association with Hasan Piker, the left-wing streamer and commentator.
- Piker has made highly controversial statements, including anti-American and anti-Israel remarks.
- El-Sayed has not fully disavowed him.
- Critics argue this is creating a real liability in the general election.
The panel’s take
- John McCormick says El-Sayed may be able to win, but his association with Piker is toxic and could be exploited heavily in attack ads.
- Jonah Goldberg argues El-Sayed is trapped by his base:
- He can’t fully repudiate Piker without risking support from progressive and Muslim/Arab constituencies.
- His strategy is very different from Obama’s old “middle” strategy.
- Mike Warren sees the race as a classic base-turnout fight:
- El-Sayed needs both college-town progressives and Arab/Muslim voters.
- The dilemma is that the coalition helping him win the primary may be too ideologically extreme for a general-election electorate.
- On the GOP side, Mike Rogers has his own authenticity problem:
- He was once skeptical of Trump after Jan. 6, then shifted toward Trump.
- He may have trouble with independents wary of Trump.
Other Races the Panel Is Watching
Texas Senate
John’s pick is Texas, where the GOP sidestepped the more electable John Cornyn and moved toward Ken Paxton:
- Paxton carries major baggage:
- impeachment,
- corruption allegations,
- personal scandal,
- and a reputation for chaos.
- Democrats’ side includes James Talarico, who also has a very progressive record.
- The result is a bizarre but important race that tests how much damage Republican voters are willing to tolerate.
- Trump endorsed Paxton but has not yet spent much of his war chest to help him.
Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District
Mike’s pick is Iowa’s 3rd:
- A competitive, evenly matched district centered on Des Moines and surrounding areas.
- Republican Zach Nunn faces a Democrat in a state where:
- Trump tariffs are unpopular,
- the Iran war has generated backlash,
- and statewide Democrats are showing strength.
- Mike sees it as a useful bellwether for whether a broader Democratic wave is forming.
Ohio Senate
Jonah’s pick is the Ohio Senate race:
- Sherrod Brown vs. John Husted
- Ohio is no longer a swing state, but this race could test whether Trump’s brand still lifts Republicans.
- Brown’s populism gives Democrats a potentially strong anti-tariff, pro-worker case.
- Husted is viewed as a serious candidate, but the race may reveal whether Trump’s unpopularity hurts GOP turnout in a key industrial state.
Not Worth Your Time: Fantasy Football
The back half of the episode turns playful as the hosts talk fantasy football:
- Jonah is mostly indifferent and jokingly unprepared.
- John rejects fantasy football as a distraction from “real” football fandom.
- Mike joins the Dispatch fantasy league mainly because his son is doing one too.
- They discuss draft strategy, last-place punishments, and various league rituals, including:
- retaking the SAT/ACT as an adult,
- absurd public punishments,
- and embarrassing “loser” penalties.
The segment is mostly comic relief, but it also gives a glimpse of the hosts’ personalities and how they unwind outside politics.