Overview of 3 & Out — Shedeur Sanders is STARTING, Michael Penix is OUT, Lane Kiffin LEAVING?
Host: John Middlekoff — Three and Out (iHeartPodcasts / The Volume)
This episode centers on quarterback news and coaching drama: Shedeur (Shador) Sanders getting a surprising NFL start as a rookie fifth‑round pick, Michael Penix Jr. suffering a torn ACL, and the ongoing Lane Kiffin coaching “circus” at Ole Miss (possible moves to Florida/LSU). John uses these headlines to discuss how NFL opportunity works for late‑round rookies, the fragility of QB evaluations, structural differences between the NFL and college coaching markets, and a broad mailbag covering Bears, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Raiders, tanking, and player development.
Key topics discussed
- Shedeur Sanders (rookie QB) starting for the Browns against the Raiders — context on how rare/uncertain success is for third‑day QBs and why opportunity matters more than pedigree.
- Michael Penix Jr.’s torn ACL — implications for his career and the Atlanta Falcons’ season.
- JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and the challenge of projecting QB success — the podcast stresses how unpredictable QB evaluation remains.
- Patrick Mahomes’ reduced deep‑ball output compared to earlier years — used to illustrate inevitable performance variance and stronger divisional competition (Broncos, Chargers).
- Lane Kiffin “saga” — Ole Miss coach reportedly exploring Florida/LSU; criticism of his public handling and advice that honesty/authenticity would serve him better.
- NFL vs. College structural differences — revenue sharing, coach movement protocols, and how that creates a more unified NFL market compared to the often-chaotic college landscape.
- Mailbag segments — questions about Bears’ record, Jordan Love/LaFleur, Falcons’ rebuild and QB plan after Penix injury, Saints roster decisions, Panthers’ media attention, Raiders’ struggles, Brian Flores as a candidate, tanking in the NFL, and youth/ineligibility rules.
Main takeaways
- Opportunity beats pedigree: For late‑round or undrafted rookie QBs, getting even a few starts can dramatically change league perception — playing matters more than scouting buzz. Sanders now has that chance.
- Injury risk disrupts development: Michael Penix’s ACL is a significant setback for him and the Falcons; recurring injuries can change career trajectories.
- QB evaluation remains imprecise: Even highly touted prospects and early breakout stars can plateau or regress; many variables (coaching, scheme, teammates, injuries) cloud projections.
- NFL’s unified business model reduces internal poaching chaos: Shared TV deals and revenue distribution make contractual movement among NFL teams far more structured and cooperative than in college football, where coaching movement is often messy and public.
- PR matters for coaches: In 2025’s social media climate, blunt denials or evasive acts backfire; authenticity and straightforward communication are advised for coaches like Lane Kiffin.
- Tanking is rare and impractical in the NFL: Structural reasons (single weekly game, little guaranteed money, competitive incentives) make organized tanking unlikely compared to other sports.
Notable stats & examples highlighted
- Mahomes deep‑ball stat shared by the host: from 2018–2022 Mahomes threw 51 TDs on deep balls averaging 15+ yards per target; in the last 3 years that fell to 5 TDs and under 10 yards per target — used to show performance variance.
- Host listed recent fifth‑round QBs (as context for Sanders): Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, Jaran Hall, Dorian Thompson‑Robinson, Sam Howell, Ian Book, Jake Fromm — many with limited or no sustained NFL success, underscoring long odds for late picks.
Mailbag highlights (condensed)
- Bears (7‑3): Host defends their season so far — beating lesser teams still matters; middle of November record is meaningful.
- Jordan Love / LaFleur: Drops and personnel/strategy, not just play‑calling, factor into criticism; coaches must win games against expected opponents.
- Falcons rebuild: After Penix injury, top priority remains finding or stabilizing the QB position (bridge QB, trade options like Mac Jones, or drafting if assets exist).
- Saints: Trade/roster decisions (Kamara, others) depend on evaluation of current QB situation and whether veteran pieces can be leveraged.
- Panthers: Market size/fandom drive media attention; small markets with recent losing history get less national coverage despite on-field improvement.
- Raiders: Ownership/money issues historically mattered; now roster/coaching hires and QB identification are core problems.
- Brian Flores: Recognized as a strong defensive mind but questions remain about his ability to manage offensive staff and interpersonal dynamics.
- Tanking: Not a meaningful NFL strategy — players and coaches generally try to win every week.
- Youth/development: NFL rule requires players to be three years removed from high school; physical development and contact characteristics make rapid pro readiness uncommon compared to soccer.
Host’s views / tone (short)
- Optimistic but realistic about Shedeur Sanders: excited to watch, acknowledges long odds but stresses the value of the opportunity.
- Sympathetic but blunt on Penix: injuries are part of the game and can be career‑altering.
- Critical of Lane Kiffin’s public handling of potential departures; suggests honesty and modern PR sensitivity.
- Repeated theme: football evaluation is messy, human, and influenced by many uncontrollable factors.
Quick action items / things to watch
- Watch Shedeur Sanders’ next 3–5 starts — they will heavily shape his NFL valuation and opportunities.
- Track Michael Penix’s rehab timeline and Falcons’ QB contingency plans (trades, free agent/bridge QB).
- Monitor Lane Kiffin developments — likely outcome: coaching change and Ole Miss handling of potential playoff coaching status.
- Keep an eye on Patrick Mahomes’ play‑calling/deep passing usage versus divisional defensive adjustments (Broncos, Chargers).
- Follow the Raiders’ next roster/coaching moves and the Saints’ decisions regarding veterans and draft positioning.
Notable paraphrased quotes
- “When you get your opportunity, you have to take advantage of it.” — on late‑round rookies like Shedeur Sanders.
- “We’ve been 50 years in and we still can’t evaluate quarterbacks — it’s a messy human problem.” — on QB scouting limits.
- “It’s 2025 — blatant lies don’t work anymore. Be honest.” — advice to Lane Kiffin about public communication.
Verdict / final summary
John Middlekoff uses three headline stories (Sanders start, Penix injury, Kiffin drama) as jumping‑off points to examine systemic truths about football: opportunity matters more than pedigree, QB projections are unreliable, injuries can derail careers, and college coaching moves are messy compared to the NFL’s more unified business model. The episode blends news, sharp opinions, and listener Q&A to offer both immediate game‑week context and broader reflections on how the sport operates behind the headlines.