Overview of Chris Hayes: Trump Has Become 'The Establishment' (The Bulwark)
This episode features a wide-ranging conversation with Chris Hayes about the recent government shutdown, Democratic strategy, the filibuster, redistricting and election takeaways, the attention economy's effect on modern campaigning, and the growing “crank” anti‑establishment alignment (including worrying overlaps with antisemitism). Hayes situates recent political shifts — from local House races to tech/AI ties to the right — in a broader theory about attention, legitimacy, and who now wears the mantle of “establishment.”
Main topics discussed
- Shutdown and Democratic calculations
- Why Democrats ultimately agreed to end the shutdown: perceived inability to win a substantive concession (Obamacare subsidies), aversion to real human harm from prolonged shutdowns, and messaging failures.
- Internal tensions: some Democrats wanted to stand, others feared constituent blowback over furloughed workers and benefits.
- The filibuster
- Debate on whether the shutdown could/should have been used to “nuke” the filibuster.
- Hayes argues killing the filibuster would restore congressional authority but notes many Democrats aren’t united on that change; political will and forcing mechanisms matter.
- Critique of how carve-outs (judges, reconciliation) have favored Republican priorities.
- Redistricting and recent election dynamics
- Court rulings (e.g., Utah) and state-level wins (Virginia, California) have blunted what once looked like a massive Republican gerrymandering advantage.
- Pending Supreme Court Voting Rights Act decisions could drastically change this picture.
- Attention economy and campaign strategy (from Hayes’s book The Siren’s Call)
- Attention-theory: campaigns must have a theory of how to reach voters beyond buying TV ads.
- Hayes: attention strategies matter most for presidential elections and marginal voters; for many congressional/statehouse races, structural factors still dominate.
- Warning against over-learning from celebrity/high-attention tactics — attention can backfire (examples: Herschel Walker, Kari Lake).
- “Crank realignment” / anti‑establishment currents
- The anti-establishment energy that once skewed left has largely flipped to the right (COVID-era and cultural issues accelerated this).
- Comedians, podcasters, and other low‑trust audiences have gone from skepticism of elites to embracing MAGA actors; now many of those voices are souring on the billionaire/tech alliances Trump has embraced.
- Antisemitism and the Gaza war’s information dynamics
- Concern that criticism of Israel is being algorithmically juxtaposed with far‑right voices (Candace Owens, Nick Fuentes), which can pull young people toward conspiratorial antisemitic narratives.
- Hayes urges left critics of Israel to do “intense line‑drawing” and to loudly reject antisemitism; he warns the algorithmic mix of content creates real radicalization pathways.
- GOP trajectory and generational signs
- Anecdote: Nikki Haley’s son’s comments as symptomatic of the right’s shifting generational ideology (assimilationist, restrictive immigration stances).
- The Republican Party seems to be occupying populist-nationalist, anti‑elite ground — for now.
- Tech, AI, and elites
- Discussion of tech billionaires’ closeness to MAGA politicians, and the political risk if AI/tech harms escalate — potential populist backlash against the tech elite.
- Example: Marc Andreessen mocking the Pope’s call for moral discernment in AI highlights elites’ defensiveness and cultural tone.
Key takeaways
- Democrats were justified on humanitarian and political grounds to end the shutdown, even if some argue it forfeited leverage.
- The filibuster debate is as much about political will and caucus unity as it is about principle; carve-outs have tended to advantage conservative priorities.
- Recent court rulings and state results have significantly reduced GOP gerrymandering momentum — but a SCOTUS Voting Rights verdict could reverse gains.
- Attention strategies matter, but their effectiveness depends on the office sought and the voter pool; not all attention is good attention.
- A new anti‑establishment coalition — a mix of podcasters, comedians, tech skeptics and the far right — is reshaping who the public sees as the “establishment.”
- There is a real and urgent risk of antisemitic narratives spreading through social algorithms; left critics of Israel must separate legitimate criticism from conspiratorial/antisemitic content.
- If AI/tech investment or scandals blow up, public anger could sharply realign against tech elites and those allied with them.
Notable quotes / insights
- “The filibuster has been part of the process by which Congress has neutered itself and the vacuum has been filled by the executive.”
- “Not all fighting is good fighting.” (On choosing when to escalate tactics.)
- “The place [attentional tactics] is most important are in presidentials with the most marginal voters.”
- “Criticism of Israel is flypaper for genuine anti‑Semites — but they’re not the same thing.” (Lines must be drawn clearly by progressives.)
Recommendations & action items Hayes suggests (implicit)
- For Democrats:
- Develop a clearer, structural plan for reaching low‑attention/presidential voters — don’t rely solely on legacy ads.
- If in power again, be prepared to change procedural norms (filibuster, committee rules) to restore Congressional authority.
- Continue to craft strong affordability and pocketbook messages; midterm successes show these themes resonate.
- For left critics of Israel:
- Explicitly reject antisemitic conspiracies and make a public, forceful distinction between policy criticism and bigotry.
- Be aware of algorithmic cross-pollination that can push legitimate audiences into radical content.
- For the public/political observers:
- Watch tech/AI developments closely — potential for political backlash is high if harm or failures materialize.
- Monitor redistricting and pending SCOTUS decisions — they will shape House maps for a decade.
Topics covered (brief list)
- Government shutdown: politics and human costs
- Filibuster debate and Congressional functionality
- Redistricting, court rulings, and election analysis (Virginia, California, Utah)
- The “attention economy” and campaign tactics
- The anti‑establishment / “crank” realignment across political media
- Antisemitism, Gaza war coverage, algorithmic risk
- Republican generational shifts (e.g., Nikki Haley’s son)
- Tech, AI, and elite accountability (Marc Andreessen / Pope exchange)
- Closing banter: sports, personal anecdotes, and show logistics
Who should listen
- Political strategists and campaign staff (filibuster, attention strategy, redistricting implications)
- Journalists covering media ecosystems, extremism, and misinformation
- Voters and activists interested in the interplay between tech, media, and politics
- Anyone tracking how culture, algorithms, and political institutions interact in real time
This episode is a synthesis of policy, political strategy, media theory, and cultural observation — useful for understanding why the center of “establishment” politics is shifting and what that means for both parties going forward.