Overview of Bill Kristol: Voters Are Realizing Trump Doesn’t Care About Them
Tim Miller and Bill Kristol use the latest polling and political news to argue that Donald Trump is losing the public on both competence and character. The conversation centers on Trump’s falling approval, his party’s continued submission to him, and how Democrats might capitalize by making the 2026 midterms a referendum on Trump himself. They also cover foreign policy tensions with Iran, Ukraine, and China, Trump’s corruption and age, the Tina Peters commutation, and lessons from Rob Flaherty’s postmortem of the 2024 campaign.
Trump’s Weakening Political Standing
Kristol emphasizes that Trump’s numbers are trending down in a meaningful way, not just wobbling.
- Recent polls from CNN, CBS, and the New York Times show Trump in the high 30s on approval, with disapproval in the high 50s/low 60s.
- In CBS polling, only 35% said Trump cares “a lot” or “some” about people like them, while 65% said “not much” or “not at all.”
- Kristol argues this is especially damaging because Trump’s strength has long been the belief that he is on “your side.”
- He says the trend matters more than any one poll point because Trump’s decline appears sustained and likely to continue if the economy worsens and corruption stays visible.
Main takeaway for Democrats
Kristol’s clearest strategic advice:
- Keep the election about Trump.
- Force Republicans to keep voting to defend Trump’s most unpopular actions.
- Make the midterms a referendum on whether Congress should “check Trump.”
Louisiana, Bill Cassidy, and the Party of Trump
The episode opens with the Louisiana political backdrop, including Bill Cassidy’s poor showing in the Senate primary and the defeat of several ballot measures backed by Gov. Jeff Landry.
Key points:
- Lindsey Graham’s comment that “this is the party of Donald Trump” is treated as both true and politically revealing.
- Kristol notes the absurdity of long-time GOP figures treating total loyalty to Trump as normal.
- Cassidy is presented as someone who voted to impeach Trump but then spent years trying to accommodate him, leaving Kristol with little sympathy.
- The ballot initiative results and turnout patterns are read as evidence that Trump’s brand remains potent in Republican politics, but not necessarily representative of broader public support.
Thomas Massy and the Limits of Trump’s Control
They also discuss Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary challenge.
- Massie is notable for being one of the few Republicans who has consistently resisted Trump without becoming a full anti-Trump convert.
- His support appears strongest among younger voters, while older MAGA voters remain loyal to his opponent.
- Kristol sees Massie as important because he shows it is possible to buck Trump and still survive politically.
- Even if Massie loses, a close result could suggest that some Republican voters are no longer fully locked into Trump loyalty.
Iran, War Powers, and Trump’s Bluster
A major chunk of the episode focuses on Trump’s threats toward Iran and the possibility of renewed military action.
The concern
- Trump has been warning for weeks about devastating Iran, but without clear action or strategy.
- Kristol calls this a serious dereliction of presidential duty: bluster without coherent policy.
- They discuss the possibility that Trump could drag the U.S. into a wider regional conflict that affects energy markets and U.S. bases.
What happens next?
- Kristol thinks Republicans might give Trump one more pass on war powers if he escalates again, but not indefinitely.
- Miller notes that if a Democrat had behaved this way, the right-wing media would have called it humiliating weakness immediately.
- Kristol agrees, citing Obama’s Syria “red line” as a case where he and other conservatives were merciless in criticizing presidential retreat.
Ukraine Gains Ground While the U.S. Pulls Back
They briefly pivot to Ukraine’s war effort.
- Ukraine struck inside Moscow, including an oil refinery, showing a more aggressive posture.
- Kristol says Europe has been carrying more of the burden, including important EU aid that had been blocked by Viktor Orbán.
- He credits Ukraine’s resilience and adaptability but worries that long-term European support may not be enough without the U.S.
Trump, China, and the Taiwan Damage
The episode strongly criticizes Trump’s China summit and its implications.
Their reading of the summit
- Trump treated Xi Jinping with excessive deference.
- China got what it wanted: a meeting framed as an interaction between equals, but with China clearly acting from a position of strength.
- Xi was firm on Taiwan, and Trump’s public response appeared weak and inconsistent.
- Trump also signaled openness to reversing a major weapons deal with Taiwan, which they see as a dangerous message to allies.
Bigger concern
Kristol argues Trump has done long-term damage to U.S. credibility in East Asia:
- Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all see signs that U.S. commitments are less dependable.
- Even if no crisis happens immediately, it will be harder for any future president to restore the old level of deterrence.
- He is especially frustrated by the silence of many “China hawks” who once argued Trump would be tougher on Beijing.
Corruption, Stock Trading, and the Slush-Fund Style Presidency
Kristol and Miller spend time on Trump’s reported financial trading activity and alleged self-dealing.
- Trump reportedly made large stock trades in major tech companies, including companies he later publicly praised or whose policy environment he influenced.
- They call this blatantly corrupt and likely illegal in spirit, if not yet fully checked by law.
- Miller argues the president should not be trading stocks at all.
- Both say Democrats should make this a major issue and push legislation banning stock trading by presidents and members of Congress.
Their broader point
Corruption is now baked into Trump’s governing style:
- It is not just about money.
- It is about flaunting power and daring anyone to stop him.
Trump’s Age and Health
They react to a newsletter item by Lauren Egan on Trump’s visible signs of aging and possible decline.
Notable concerns discussed:
- Multiple dentist visits without clear explanation.
- A prior MRI that Trump never clarified.
- Swollen ankles and bruising.
- A lighter public schedule than in his first term.
- Possible sleep episodes during televised events.
Their view:
- Trump’s health is a legitimate public issue.
- The media and politicians should not be afraid to ask questions just because of the Biden-era debates.
- Kristol says there should be more transparency, especially given the pressures of a hot war and ongoing crises.
Tina Peters, Jared Polis, and the Debate Over Clemency
The biggest point of disagreement between Kristol and Miller comes over Colorado Gov. Jared Polis commuting Tina Peters’s sentence.
Kristol’s view
- Peters tried to corrupt an election and deserved punishment.
- But he is broadly skeptical of long prison sentences for nonviolent offenders.
- He sees the commutation as unfortunate but not especially consequential in a broader landscape where Trump is pardoning January 6 defendants and rewarding election subversion.
Miller’s view
- Peters’ sentence was too harsh.
- He dislikes prison terms for nonviolent crimes and sees this as part of a broader justice-system problem.
- But he is angry about the commutation as a symbolic surrender in an era when Republicans do not hesitate to protect their own.
- His preferred countermeasure is harder-edged political action, especially around redistricting in Colorado.
The 2024 Campaign Autopsy and the Problem of “Brand”
The episode closes with a discussion of Tim’s interview with Rob Flaherty, who helped run digital strategy for Biden-Harris and Harris.
Main lesson
- Successful campaigns need a clear, recognizable brand that voters can repeat back.
- Harris, especially in the shortened 107-day campaign, did not have a strong enough brand or message.
- The campaign lacked a crisp answer to the question: “What are you offering that is different?”
Why it matters
- Kristol argues that successful Democrats have historically been future-oriented and anti-status quo.
- He connects that to Carter, Clinton, and Obama.
- Flaherty’s other big point: AI is likely to become a major political issue, especially because of economic disruption, social risk, and the lack of serious regulation.
- Democrats, he argues, should be willing to regulate AI and run against the tech interests backing deregulation.
Bottom Line
This episode is a broad political warning shot:
- Trump is losing public confidence.
- Republicans remain trapped by Trump loyalty.
- Trump is weakening America’s standing abroad through bluster, inconsistency, and deference to authoritarian leaders.
- Democrats have an opening in 2026, but only if they stay disciplined and make the election about Trump, corruption, and competence rather than internal factional disputes.