Overview of The Bulwark episode
This double-episode features two wide-ranging conversations: first with historian and Iran expert Arash Azizi about the standoff between the U.S. and Iran, and then with Jodi Kantor of the New York Times about the Supreme Court, the shadow docket, #MeToo, and her new book on finding meaningful work. The throughline of both interviews is leverage: who has it, how it’s used, and what people on the ground are actually experiencing.
Arash Azizi: Iran has leverage in the negotiations
Azizi argues that despite the chaos and mixed messaging, the broad outline of the U.S.-Iran situation is clear: both sides want to avoid full-scale war, and both are using brinkmanship to improve their position in negotiations.
What Iran’s leverage actually is
- Iran believes it can disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and raise the cost of conflict for the global economy.
- It also believes Donald Trump is reluctant to return to war, which makes him more likely to seek a deal.
- Tehran thinks it can make regional energy infrastructure less safe and use that instability as bargaining power.
Why he thinks collapse is overhyped
- Azizi pushed back on claims that Iran’s economy will soon collapse if pressure continues.
- He said the economy is badly damaged, with job losses, logistics problems, and worsening conditions, but not near an instant collapse.
- In his view, many DC analysts overstate the speed and decisiveness of sanctions or blockades because they assume desired outcomes rather than realistic ones.
Inside the Iranian regime
- There is infighting, but also significant regime cohesion.
- Azizi said the most hardline anti-negotiation voices are a minority, while the real power centers, especially the IRGC-linked pragmatists, understand the need to cut a deal.
- He described figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as examples of pragmatic power brokers.
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appears to be less hands-on than in the past, with day-to-day decisions increasingly handled by others.
What people inside Iran are feeling
- Azizi said ordinary Iranians are mostly dealing with a growing economic catastrophe and a sense of limbo.
- Many had hoped war pressure would bring regime collapse, but that hope has faded.
- He stressed that most Iranians just want a normal life, not geopolitical martyrdom.
Bigger-picture take on Iran’s national interest
- Azizi argued that Iran’s true national interest would be non-alignment and regional independence, not ideological confrontation.
- He said the Islamic Republic’s anti-American, anti-Israel posture has harmed Iranian interests and isolated the country.
- He also argued that Iran’s future could still be one of regional integration and economic opening if leaders make bold choices.
His view on Zionism and the region
- Azizi framed Zionism as a normal nationalist movement in modern history, not something uniquely exceptional.
- He said the region’s long-term stability still depends on Israel addressing the occupation of Palestinian territories and pursuing a pragmatic settlement.
- He expects future regional relations to depend heavily on whether Israel moves toward a more realistic, less hubristic approach after Netanyahu.
Jodi Kantor: Supreme Court secrecy, #MeToo, and career advice
Kantor’s segment moved from judicial reporting to cultural change and then to practical advice for young people entering a brutal job market.
Her Supreme Court reporting
- Kantor discussed the shadow docket and the secretive internal paperwork that showed how the Court began using emergency-style procedures more aggressively.
- She said the 2016 climate case was a key moment in the shadow docket’s rise.
- Her reporting suggests that the justices, especially Chief Justice John Roberts, often present a more institutional public image than what their behind-the-scenes behavior shows.
Amy Coney Barrett
- Kantor said Barrett has been misread by both the left and the right.
- She comes across as more independent and complex than partisan caricatures suggested.
The Dobbs leak
- Kantor said the source of the Dobbs leak remains unknown, but it’s still worth treating as a serious attempt to influence a major Court decision.
- More broadly, she emphasized that the Court is highly secretive and controls much of its own public narrative.
#MeToo is not over
- Kantor rejected the idea that #MeToo has ended.
- She said women are still coming forward across politics, culture, and public life.
- Her point: the movement has been politicized, but the underlying problem remains widespread and cross-partisan.
Advice for young people: fight cynicism, embrace the zigzag
Kantor’s new book, How to Start Discovering Your Life’s Work, is aimed at students and early-career workers who feel lost, replaceable, or discouraged.
Her core message
- Young people are being told they are disposable, but every person has unique value and something to contribute.
- She urged readers not to give up before starting.
- Her advice is to resist “informed cynicism” that is really just fear of rejection.
What she thinks is wrong with the current job market
- Job hunting has become more lonely and dehumanizing.
- AI-driven hiring and automated interviews remove human feedback and make the process feel cold and opaque.
- Young people often don’t know whether jobs are real, ghost listings, or simply unreachable.
Her practical advice
- Relax about coherence: careers do not follow a clean straight line.
- Seek high-stimulation jobs that teach you something, especially early on.
- Don’t confuse a survival job with your forever identity, but don’t foreclose the possibility that work can be meaningful.
- She framed adulthood as a time to fight for your ambitions, not retreat into resignation.
The Michael Kinsley story
- Kantor ended with a personal anecdote about journalist Michael Kinsley, who once pulled back a job offer in Seattle after asking whether she might marry the boyfriend she’d leave behind.
- The point: the “wrong” career choice can sometimes cost more than the missed promotion, and human relationships matter as much as ambition.
Key takeaways
- Iran’s leverage comes from regional instability and Trump’s desire for a deal, not from an imminent military collapse of the regime.
- Regime cohesion inside Iran is stronger than many analysts assume, even with factional tensions.
- The Iranian public is suffering economically and wants stability, not ideological crusades.
- The Supreme Court is more opaque and politically active behind the scenes than its public image suggests.
- #MeToo remains an ongoing social reckoning, not a finished movement.
- Career advice for young people: avoid cynicism, stay open to zigzags, and seek work that teaches, challenges, and connects you to other people.