Overview of The Buffalo Curse, a Mega-Mailbag, QB Roulette, and Week 3 Picks With Joe House and Tom Pelissero
This episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast is a football-heavy mix of listener mailbag questions, NFL injury/QB chaos, and Week 3 betting picks with Joe House. Bill and House debate everything from the “Buffalo curse” and quarterback psychology to strange sports comparisons, while Tom Pelissero joins to break down the latest league-wide quarterback situation, injured stars, and what teams may do next.
Mailbag Highlights
Deshaun Watson, Caleb Williams, and pain reactions
- Bill and House joke about Deshaun Watson’s unpredictable play and the internet’s reaction to Caleb Williams’ injury-cart drama.
- They argue some athletes are simply bad with pain, and the online comparison game around injuries is often absurd.
- The Browns’ offense and Watson’s performance become a recurring theme, with Bill admitting Watson looked better than expected in the latest game.
“Crock-Pot seat” for coaches
- A listener proposes a new coaching category: not hot seat, but “crock-pot seat” — a coach whose seat is warming slowly.
- Jim Harbaugh is discussed as more of an “eject seat” guy than a slow burner.
- Todd Bowles is identified as clearly being on a hotter seat.
Food and fall weather detours
- Bill and House go deep on stew season, crockpots, broth balance, and the ideal stew ingredients.
- They get especially animated about soft potatoes and big carrots in a good beef stew.
Other notable mailbag topics
- A proposed new recurring bit: “invite a team/player/fan base to eat a fat dick,” which Bill and House loved as a concept.
- Comparisons and debates about:
- Josh Allen as a LeBron-like playoff climber
- The Kelsey brothers vs. the Manning brothers in media relevance
- Miles Garrett as a “good stats, bad team” player
- Jalen Hurts as the NFL version of Jalen Brown
- Jalen Brunson and the best athlete-hosts in SNL history
- The Colts’ ownership and “new owner syndrome”
- The evolving misery of the Buffalo sports curse
Tom Pelissero’s NFL Deep Dive
Giants quarterback chaos
- With Jackson Dart hurt, the Giants are turning to Jameis Winston, with Jaxson/“Jay Kaner” in the mix behind him.
- Pelissero says New York is likely to keep looking for another quarterback if things continue to unravel.
- The Giants’ upcoming schedule is unusually soft, which could shape whether they buy, sell, or hold at quarterback.
Chargers in trouble
- Pelissero says the Chargers are in danger of unraveling quickly if they keep losing.
- He views Jim Harbaugh as a culture-building, CEO-style coach, not a tactical fixer.
- If things get worse, there isn’t an obvious quick fix, and Justin Herbert’s no-trade clause makes any major move even harder.
QBs who could move
Pelissero lays out the possible midseason QB market:
- Kirk Cousins as a legitimate trade candidate if Atlanta falls out of contention
- Mac Jones as a possible but expensive target
- J.J. McCarthy as a team-controlled asset teams may ask about
- Anthony Richardson as unlikely to be moved
- Pelissero also explains why quarterback economics are so distorted compared with other NFL positions
Deshaun Watson and Caleb Williams
- Pelissero says Watson looked genuinely good in the second half of the Browns’ last game and could make things interesting if he keeps playing well.
- Caleb Williams’ injury is described as not necessarily long-term, and the Bears may bring him back relatively soon if he can function safely.
- He also explains that Bryce Young’s improvement with Carolina has been real, structured, and somewhat hidden by how the Panthers are managing the offense.
Week 3 Betting Picks With Joe House
Bill and House are both sitting at 5-5 in Ringer 107 and each make three picks plus a tease.
Bill Simmons’ picks
- Patriots +2.5 at Jaguars
- He thinks Jacksonville’s offense is better than the market is treating it and New England is too banged up and too shaky on offense.
- Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Vikings
- Bill is treating this like a must-win for Tampa after back-to-back bad outcomes.
- He sees Minnesota as overrated after a weak offensive showing.
- Texans -1.5 at Colts
- He still believes in Houston’s talent and thinks Indy’s offense without much dynamic passing threat is vulnerable.
- Tease: Seahawks down to -1.5 and Bengals/Steelers under 48.5
Joe House’s picks
- Ravens -3.5 vs. Cowboys in Brazil
- House likes Baltimore’s run game and overall offense to control the game.
- Jaguars -2.5 vs. Patriots
- He agrees with Bill that Jacksonville is in a good spot at home.
- Chiefs -10.5 vs. Dolphins
- He keeps fading Miami until the market finally punishes them enough.
- Tease: Titans +8.5 and Buccaneers +7.5
Betting themes they kept returning to
- 0-2 teams in Week 3 historically covering at a strong rate
- Home dogs with desperation value
- The Dolphins as a team to keep fading
- The importance of quarterback stability in early-season betting
Big Takeaways
- The episode is driven by quarterback uncertainty: injuries, benchings, trade possibilities, and performance swings.
- Bill and House are especially interested in how bad teams can become “buy-low” bets or stay-away teams depending on context.
- Tom Pelissero’s segment adds the most concrete reporting, especially on the Giants, Chargers, Browns, and several possible QB dominoes.
- The final betting segment is classic Simmons: a mix of trends, instinct, revenge spots, and skepticism about overhyped teams.
Notable Running Jokes and Bits
- “Deshaun of the dead”
- “Eat a fat dick” as a new recurring segment idea
- “Crock-pot seat” for coaches
- The Buffalo sports curse
- “Mass slinger” for masked backup quarterbacks
- The Kelseys having fully surpassed the Mannings in pop culture relevance