Overview of "Why a Weird NBA Season Finally Went Full Weirdo On Us, With Tim Legler" (The Ringer / Bill Simmons Podcast)
Bill Simmons and Tim Legler break down why the 2025 NBA season feels unusually chaotic, run through a 30-to-1 power poll of teams, and hit the league’s big themes: parity, availability, three-point variance, a wave of young coaches using analytics, and how to think about regular-season results versus playoff reliability. The conversation mixes macro trends, concrete team evaluations, trade-deadline speculation, and player-specific notes (Giannis, Zion, Embiid, Jokic, Luka, LaMelo, Cade, etc.).
Season-wide diagnosis: why it feels “weird”
- The ledger: over the last 25 games, the best record is 17–8 and the worst is 7–18 — the 30 teams are separated by only ~10 games. That explains the nightly unpredictability.
- Legler’s causes:
- Player availability: injuries, load management and frequent lineup changes produce inconsistent lineups.
- Fluctuating effort: nights when teams look flat or disinterested are more common than usual, producing odd blowouts and upsets.
- Three-point variance: more threes attempted league-wide → more game-to-game swing. A cold or hot night from deep can flip outcomes.
- Deeper benches: more productive role players create more parity; teams once thin now have late-game contributors.
- Coaching evolution: an influx of younger, analytics-first head coaches who can craft lineups and explain concepts to players — this changes day-to-day performance and the kinds of lineups we see.
Notable quote: “I’ve seen more nights now where teams have been flat … which means on any given night, anybody is capable of beating anybody.”
Coaching & analytics shift
- Legler calls this the best infusion of young coaching talent the NBA has ever seen. These coaches:
- Embrace analytics by default (their formative years included it).
- Are better at selling concepts to modern players.
- Deploy unconventional lineups and minute distributions that can produce surprising regular-season results.
- J.J. Redick is explicitly named as an example of a new coach steeped in analytics and player buy-in.
- Result: lineups that previously wouldn’t get minutes now look viable; the eye test + analytics combination is influencing roster construction and in-game choices.
Regular season vs playoff reliability
- There’s a wider than-usual gap between “good regular-season team” and “good playoff team.”
- Some clubs thrive on depth and nightly rotation magic (good for regular season).
- Playoff series expose weaknesses: lack of postseason experience, poor late-game defense, inability to create separation when teams plan for you.
- Legler stresses evaluating teams differently for April/May — some teams currently high in the standings may not translate to multi-round playoff success; others with proven stars or playoff-ready cores should be trusted more.
Teams & tiers — key takeaways from the power-poll discussion
(They ran a full 30→1 list; below are highlights and cluster summaries)
- Bottom-tier / rebuilding:
- Washington at the very bottom. Milwaukee without Giannis is a mess (Giannis’ health creates roster/psychological problems).
- Panic / underperformers:
- Orlando flagged as “panic time” despite a winning record — inconsistent, puzzling effort, coaching questions.
- Play-in dreamers (on the fringe, could push for play-in):
- Dallas — better than their record, Max Christie an emerging asset; Cooper/Flagg timeline noted.
- Portland — tricky: injuries to Scoot and others, but roster makes Ja Morant trade discussions plausible.
- Atlanta, Chicago — situationally in the mix.
- Wild card:
- Charlotte — surprising offensive surge (LaMelo bounce-back + Diabaté); fun, young and worth watching.
- Enigma:
- Philadelphia — Joel Embiid’s production is elite despite limited explosion/leg explosiveness; team looks dangerous when healthy but carries injury risk.
- Lurking / middle tier:
- Cleveland — trending up; will be tested on a long West trip.
- New York — streaky regular-season form, but still looks like a playoff-tested squad.
- Sleepers / surging teams:
- Clippers — +15-18 stretch, defensive improvement, Kawhi looking like vintage Kawhi at times; still buried in standings so seeding race is uphill.
- Contenders / favorites:
- East: Detroit was singled out repeatedly as a favorite in the East — physical, serious, and dangerous; need a reliable shooter to round out the roster.
- West: Denver and Oklahoma City are the two chief favorites; Denver gained credibility after surviving long stretches without Nikola Jokić (and the Watson breakout), while OKC still looks elite but has shown vulnerability.
- Houston, Boston, San Antonio, Minnesota were included in the broader “contender conversation” (with Houston’s offense sometimes stagnant and Minnesota’s lack of a true lead point guard a playoff worry).
- Quick notes on marquee teams:
- Lakers: intriguing on paper (Luka + LeBron) and capable of bursts, but defense and consistency make sustained deep playoff runs unlikely in current form.
- Nuggets: Jokic’s return timeline and Aaron Gordon’s hamstring health are the big variables; the Watson emergence while Jokic was out is huge.
- OKC: dominant overall but concerns about three-point shooting and lack of offensive rebounds; still the baseline favorite until proven otherwise.
Player-specific highlights & concerns
- Giannis: Legler and Bill both would be wary to trade for him now — age, injury recurrence, and large buy-in make any trade risky until he proves long-term health.
- Zion Williamson: elite talent but long history of injuries and puzzling rebound numbers; durability and effort (rebounding mentality) are major red flags.
- Joel Embiid: still elite scorer and shot-maker despite reduced explosiveness — health and physical limitations complicate projections.
- Nikola Jokić: Denver’s ability to survive without him (and the Watson breakout) is a major positive; his return could vault Denver into favorite status.
- LaMelo Ball & Max Diabaté (Charlotte): LaMelo finding rhythm, Diabaté has been a real difference-maker.
- Cade Cunningham / Detroit: elite team chemistry and toughness — misses a reliable catch-and-shoot 3 to feel fully playoff-ready.
- Luka/LeBron (Lakers): high upside nights from Luka still make them dangerous, but their defensive ceiling is a problem.
- Emerging role players: Tim Hardaway (as streaky shooter), Max Christie (Dallas), and the steady play of players like Pascal Siakam in unfavorable situations were praised.
Trade deadline / roster-move watchlist
- Pelicans (New Orleans): flagged as a trade “machine” — Zion remains trade-talk fodder and they have several tradeable contracts/young assets (Sadiq Bey, Alvarado, Looney, picks).
- Pacers: may pursue a center (or trade to secure one) once Halliburton returns; they need frontcourt help to return to contention.
- Detroit: could shop Bruce Brown/LeVert + picks to add a reliable veteran shooter.
- Portland: Ja Morant trade speculation — a buyer’s market and fit questions (coaching, culture) make the trade complicated.
- General guidance: trades for aging bigs with heavy mileage (e.g., Giannis-type comparison) are risky; evaluate health and long-term viability, not just upside.
One concrete rule idea Bill floated
- Anti-fouling proposal: in the last ~30 seconds, if the team leading is intentionally fouled to stop the clock, change the free-throw structure: the leading team gets one free throw but it’s worth two points if made (keeps game flow and penalizes intentional fouling). Both Bill and Legler agreed the strategic fouling epidemic late in games is annoying and worth fixing.
What to watch next (action items for fans)
- Post-All-Star window: Legler expects stabilization after the break — watch early March to see which teams lock in.
- Key trips / stretches:
- Cleveland’s 5-game West Coast trip (cohesion test).
- Clippers/Lakers jockeying for West seeding.
- Jokic return timeline and Aaron Gordon health — immediate impact on Denver’s playoff ceiling.
- Giannis timeline: if he’s said to be back in late March, that could swing how teams value targeting him at the deadline.
- Trade deadline moves: monitor Pelicans, Pistons, Pacers, and Hornets for mid-level veteran additions that change playoff picture.
- Teams to use as playoff proxies: watch Detroit (East pick), Denver/OKC (West titans), Clippers’ defense and Kawhi health, and Philadelphia’s Embiid durability.
Bottom-line takeaways
- This season is unusually bunched: injuries, effort variance, three-point variance, deeper benches, and a coaching renaissance have all combined to make outcomes highly unpredictable.
- Expect somewhat clearer hierarchies after the All-Star break, but the playoffs will still punish teams lacking a playoff-ready identity (defense, reliable shooters, playoff experience).
- Keep an eye on player health more than ever — availability is the dominant variable.
- Trade-deadline moves and midseason coaching/rotation choices will meaningfully reshape the playoff landscape; the next 4–6 weeks are critical.
(Hosts: Bill Simmons with guest Tim Legler. Episode mixes wide-angle league analysis, a 30→1 power poll, team-by-team notes, and trade/ruled-suggestion detours.)