Overview of The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House
This episode of The Ringer/Bill Simmons Podcast (guests Peter Schrager and Joe House) mixes a deep look at the NFL coaching carousel (big hires, departures and organizational fits) with a full divisional-round (Round 2) playoff breakdown — Xs and Os, narrative framing, and betting takes. The hosts debate how recent coaching moves (John Harbaugh to the Giants, Mike Tomlin stepping away, etc.) affect franchises, interrogate which head-coaching jobs are attractive or toxic, and then preview all four divisional-round games with bets, props and “manifesto” rules for playoff wagering.
Coaching carousel — what changed, why it matters
John Harbaugh → Giants
- Consensus view: Harbaugh makes immediate sense for New York because the Giants needed an experienced, stabilizing, “adult” presence and culture builder.
- Counterpoints raised: Harbaugh is in his 60s, questions about his connection with younger players (Ravens friction), and concerns about fourth-quarter collapses in Baltimore.
- Media/drama note: The Harbaugh recruitment had an old-school chase feel (dinners, beat reporters on the scene), and owner-involvement (Joe Schoen/John Mara) was central. Hosts frame the move as both a football and organizational signal.
Mike Tomlin → stepping away (likely short break / TV)
- Tomlin reportedly handed in his resignation/opted for a break; he still has years left on his contract and will likely sit out a year (money/contract complicates an immediate return).
- The hosts liked Tomlin as an on-air personality option (Fox/NBC) and suggested a gap year could be beneficial — he’d return refreshed and with broad perspective.
- Takeaway: Some coaches simply need a break; sitting out can increase their market value later.
Other coaching themes and names
- Coordinators matter: Many argued that landing the right OC/DC is as crucial as hiring the head coach (Daboll-era hires referenced).
- Young coaches vs. coordinator path: Teams are often tempted to hire very young offensive minds (e.g., names floated for Cleveland). Hosts advised weighing organization stability and QB situation heavily before grabbing risky HC jobs.
- Noted names mentioned in context: Brian Daboll, Mike Kafka, Todd Monken, Ben Johnson, Mike McDaniel, Brian Flores (as a potential DC in Washington), Mike Vrabel (as hire model), and general chatter about Browns/Cardinals/Titans jobs.
- Ownership & org-chart matters: The hosts repeatedly emphasized that owner involvement and the front-office structure often matter as much as the roster or QB when evaluating a coaching fit.
Playoff Round 2 breakdown — games, keys, and picks
Each game note includes the hosts’ key angles and the pick(s) they landed on.
Broncos vs. Bills
- Key angles:
- Bills are depleted at WR (Gabe Davis out, other injuries noted). Josh Allen’s track record makes it hard to bet against him, but host skepticism is high because of Buffalo’s injuries and Denver’s home-field and run strengths.
- Broncos have Sean Payton, Bo Nix is the QB story, and Denver has been strong at home.
- Betting take: The hosts sided with Denver — Broncos -1.5 (argued the line should be more like Broncos -3). Rationale: home field, run-game control, Buffalo injuries.
Seahawks vs. 49ers
- Key angles:
- 49ers are injured and thin (Kittle limited, Fred Warner status in-question earlier in the week). 49ers had an abysmal offensive showing previously but are still Kyle Shanahan’s team.
- Seahawks rested, defense strong under Mike McDonald, and Seattle’s running game is legit.
- Injury report volatility (Sam Darnold oblique issue, Drew Lock as emergency).
- Betting take: Hosts liked the Seahawks but also believed the 49ers could pull off an upset. Final lean in the show: take the 49ers +7 (i.e., betting the Niners with the points because the line was too big in favor of Seattle).
Patriots vs. Texans
- Key angles:
- Texans defense is historically fast and elite this year (Will Anderson Jr. and co.), but the Patriots have advantages in cold weather, coaching (McDaniels), and a home crowd.
- Questions: Can the Patriots attack the Texans’ defense? Can the Texans move the ball in cold-weather Foxborough conditions?
- Props and parlays discussed (examples from the show): Ramondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions (they like his receiving role), Drake Maye passing/rushing props mentioned as attractive.
- Betting take: Patriots -3 (hosts believed the Pats’ advantages — climate, coaching and matchup — make this the better side).
Rams vs. Bears
- Key angles:
- This game featured real personality heat: Ben Johnson’s taunting video and the Lions/Rams coaching rivalry; hosts loved the narrative drama.
- Bears have an unorthodox, resilient identity — they’ve pulled off several wild comebacks. Rams have an effective run game but have been inconsistent and have special-teams issues.
- Weather (very cold, single-digit temperatures) and the Rams’ road form are factors; quarterbacks’ comfort in cold was debated.
- Betting take: Hosts sided with Bears +3.5 (preferred the hook and the emotional/football narrative that Chicago can pull one out at home in frigid conditions).
Betting/“manifesto” rules & favorite props referenced
- Recurrent “manifesto” rules they used to think about playoff betting:
- Beware the “nobody believes in us” narrative — it can galvanize a team (Niners example).
- Beware teams that looked too good in the previous round (they can regress).
- Don’t bet solely because of a superstar QB — context/injuries and roster matter.
- Home-field and weather are meaningful (cold-weather advantage for teams used to it).
- Offensive lines and run games travel less reliably than defenses.
- Props the hosts liked (examples mentioned on-air):
- Ramondre (Rhamondre) Stevenson — receptions over 2.5 in Patriots game.
- Drake Maye — 225+ passing yards and rushing-yard props (most rushing yards in game prop was noted).
- Bo Nix — 25+ rushing yards (to have some rushing floor).
- Kenneth Walker 60+ rushing yards + Seahawks ML in a same-game play.
- First-half tie prop for Patriots-Texans (hosts highlighted it as a creative same-game/parlay angle).
- Final four picks (episode consensus): Broncos -1.5, 49ers +7, Patriots -3, Bears +3.5.
(If you plan to bet, hosts repeatedly reminded listeners: know local gambling rules, be of legal age, and gamble responsibly.)
Notable quotes & moments
- “They needed an adult and they hired an adult” — on Harbaugh to the Giants (the idea that the Giants needed institutional stability).
- Discussion that Tomlin might take a “gap year” to reset — hosts compared the value of stepping away to returns in stature later.
- Enjoyment of the “old school chase” media coverage around coaching hires — beat writers’ deep reporting (dinners, dinners in wine cellars, immediate local coverage).
- The Ben Johnson/McVay coaching snarl was highlighted as a rare WWE-style personality conflict the hosts loved to watch.
Practical takeaways / recommendations from the episode
- Coaching hires: prioritize organizational stability and the front-office/owner relationship as much as coach pedigree when judging a hire’s likely success.
- Young HC job caution: avoid being the 30-something coach who takes an owner/organizational disaster if there’s no QB or stable structure — coordination roles in strong organizations may be a better career path.
- Betting approach: use their manifesto rules (beware short-rest situations, teams that “looked too good,” and betting only on QB reputation) and consider same-game parlay/prop angles that exploit game-flow expectations (e.g., run-heavy plan yields RB receptions/yardage props).
- Entertainment note: the show recommends following the “coach drama” — it’s often as decisive as Xs and Os.
Who’s on the episode / final logistics
- Host: Bill Simmons
- Guests: Peter Schrager and Joe House
- Sponsors/readers: FanDuel, Firehouse Subs, LinkedIn, Mint Mobile (ads peppered the episode)
- Logistics: They’ll be live on Netflix after the Rams-Bears game; also available on standard podcast platforms.
Summary judgment: this episode blends coaching news (big organizational implications, Harbaugh/Tomlin fallout) with thorough, narrative-aware playoff betting and game-preview analysis. If you want one-sentence guidance from the show: watch organizational fit before hype for coaching hires, and for Round 2, the hosts liked Broncos (-1.5), 49ers (+7), Patriots (-3), and Bears (+3.5).