Philly’s Dominant D, Shaky Mahomes, Shakier Darnold, Shakiest Goff, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

Summary of Philly’s Dominant D, Shaky Mahomes, Shakier Darnold, Shakiest Goff, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

by The Ringer

1h 29m•November 17, 2025
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Overview of Philly’s Dominant D, Shaky Mahomes, Shakier Darnold, Shakiest Goff, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

This episode of The Ringer’s Bill Simmons Podcast (with Cousin Sal) breaks down Week 11 NFL takeaways, oddities and betting angles. The hosts hit the major games (Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, Broncos, Patriots, Packers, NFC North chaos), debated quarterback reliability, graded defenses, and played a recurring “guess the lines / improbabilities” game. The episode ends with an emotional Parent Corner tribute to longtime band leader Cleto Escobedo.

Key takeaways

  • Philadelphia’s defense is the story of the moment — the hosts argue it may be the best unit in the NFC: rush, run defense, pass defense, and consistent situational play.
  • Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes are off form: uninspiring down the stretch, questionable red-zone decisions, and an ugly trend in one-score games (the Chiefs are 0-5 in one-score games early in the season).
  • Several quarterbacks look truly unreliable in big moments: Jared Goff (poorest late-game stretch), Sam Darnold (notably imploded in his big game vs. Rams), and occasional worry over Daniel Jones/Lamar-esque volatility. Caleb Williams gets praise for scrambling but is still “erratic.”
  • Rams look like one of the most complete teams in the league (offense + defense).
  • Jaguars keep surprising and look like a legitimate playoff sleeper after a quality win.
  • Chargers have offensive line problems and Justin Herbert suffered a potential concussion — their season feels precarious despite the record.
  • Ravens are inconsistent; they won but have looked “discombobulated” and not at the 2020s elite level people expect.
  • NFC North is messy — Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit all have paths to the playoffs but each has glaring problems; Detroit’s outdoors viability in January is questioned.

Team-by-team highlights (concise)

  • Eagles: Defense dominant; trade for Jalen Phillips paid off; built for January; critics call them boring but effective.
  • Chiefs: Mahomes playing under expectations; problems in pocket timing, red zone judgment, and offensive line issues (holding penalties). Playoff odds still OK but margin for error evaporated.
  • Rams: Most complete team; Stafford’s MVP case strengthened in key moments; solid candidate for conference favorite.
  • Patriots: Emerging as a dark-horse team — their defense and schedule give them real hope (hosts discussed betting/seed scenarios).
  • Broncos: Impressive road win over Chiefs; defense showing up when needed, but RB injuries could matter long term.
  • Jaguars: Trending up; solid wins and clear path to playoffs historically underestimated.
  • Chargers: Offensive line breakdowns, huge hits to Herbert, some late-season schedule concerns; reliability in doubt.
  • Ravens: Win vs. Browns but not playing convincingly — Harbaugh’s playcalling and team energy questioned.
  • Packers/Bears/Lions (NFC North): All three have warts; Chicago’s record (7–3) hides a lot of close, lucky wins; Detroit may struggle outdoors late; Green Bay inconsistent.
  • Browns: Shadur Sanders entered and didn’t help; QB situation and game management under scrutiny.
  • 49ers/Colts/Brissett: Jacoby Brissett had an absurd stat line (47/57, 452 yards) and still no cover — a reminder that box scores aren’t everything.

“Guess the Lines” / Improbability game — summary of notable moments

The hosts ranked a handful of improbable things on a 1–10 scale (1 = very probable, 10 = very improbable). Representative results:

  • Patrick Mahomes blowing a late lead and getting outplayed by Denver — scored between 4 and 7 (surprising but plausible).
  • Shadur Sanders failing to save Browns in loss to Baltimore — rated 1 (expected to be a big problem).
  • Sam Darnold throwing multiple picks and collapsing in a big game — rated ~6–7 (some surprise given recent flashes).
  • Justin Herbert concussion / exit — rated ~1–2 (expected given protection issues).
  • Jacoby Brissett’s near-record day (47/57, 452) but team still failing cover — rated 10 (incredibly improbable that this stat-line doesn’t flip the outcome).

They used these to surface betting takeaways: be cautious with Chiefs futures, don’t overreact to single-week performances, and watch team schedules and QB durability.

Betting, lines & odds — practical notes

  • Chiefs playoff/division odds dropped; hosts warned against assuming KC is the runaway favorite — schedule and one-score game woes matter.
  • Eagles and Rams were talked about as conference favorites; Buffalo remains in the conversation per betting markets.
  • Chargers are risky despite record — O-line and Herbert health push hosts to avoid confident Chargers bets.
  • Jaguars are becoming attractive as a value sleeper (FanDuel odds moved them to more plausible playoff chances).
  • Hosts placed many upcoming game lines on their radar (Bills-Texans, Chiefs-Colts, Bears-Steelers, Eagles-Cowboys, Pats-Bengals, Rams-Bucs) and recommended caution on parlays involving shaky QBs/teams.
  • Practical bettor advice from the show: avoid emotional hedges, don’t parlay multiple uncertain favorites, lean into dependable defenses (e.g., Eagles) and monitor injuries (QBs + OL).

Notable quotes & moments

  • “Philly’s defense is better than any other unit in the NFC.” — a central thesis repeated across the episode.
  • Bill’s fun QB nicknaming: “Scam Darnold” (for Sam Darnold’s big-game meltdowns).
  • Discussion of Mahomes: “He’s playing like a 36-year-old at 30” — comments on lack of peak athletic rhythm and timing.
  • A recurring motif: teams that “pull wins out of their ass” (Chicago) vs. teams that are fundamentally built to endure (Philly, Rams).

Parent Corner — tribute to Cleto Escobedo

  • Cleto Escobedo: longtime band leader, friend and cultural figure to the show team; died at 59.
  • Background: saxophonist, toured with artists (e.g., Paula Abdul, Marc Anthony), grew up in Las Vegas with a musical family (father worked as a butler for Sammy Davis Jr.).
  • Memorial: large service with a two-hour tribute, highlight reels, musical guests (Michael McDonald performed), moving speeches (Cleto’s daughter gave an eloquent talk), and big turnout from the show’s extended family.
  • Emotional notes: hosts reflected on mortality, time passing, and the family/community Cleto built through music and the show.

Actionable recommendations (for fans & bettors)

  • If betting: respect Philly’s defense in futures and single-game lines — they can suppress scoring and upset spread expectations.
  • Be cautious with Chiefs futures and parlaying Mahomes’ recent form into longshots — monitor red-zone efficiency and holding penalties.
  • Watch the Chargers’ offensive line and Herbert’s health closely before placing week-to-week wagers.
  • Avoid overreacting to one-week blowups (good or bad) — look at schedules and play-call trends for context.
  • Keep an eye on the Jaguars as a playoff-value team and the Rams as a consistent top-tier team.

Credits: hosts Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal (Mike), with guest and production mentions in the episode; the show included sponsor reads (Apple Watch, State Farm, Michelob Ultra, Viore, Prime Video, Fox One, Mobile One, Home Depot, Uber Eats).