Overview of OKC’s Better, Jokic Isn’t Real, a Clippers Swoon, and Detroit’s Rise With Tim Legler, Plus Week 11 Picks With Joe House and Billy Gil
This Bill Simmons Podcast episode (The Ringer) features longtime NBA analyst Tim Legler discussing the early NBA season — with deep dives on the Oklahoma City Thunder’s defensive dominance and depth, Nikola Jokić’s current form for the Nuggets, the Clippers’ early-season struggles, and the surprising rise of the Detroit Pistons. The second half shifts to NFL Week 11 handicapping with Joe House and newcomer Billy Gil (Ringer 107 picks).
Guests & structure
- Guest: Tim Legler — NBA announcer/analyst (first half)
- Segment: Joe House + Billy Gil — Week 11 NFL picks (second half)
- Host: Bill Simmons
Key NBA topics discussed
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Oklahoma City Thunder
- Legler: OKC is “on a different shelf” — their defense is elite, deep, and universally accountable even with Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort out.
- Depth: AJ Mitchell’s breakout performance (scoring, shooting, surprisingly strong perimeter defense) has created a nine-man-plus rotation where many players legitimately deserve 20+ minutes.
- Defensive impact: OKC’s defense changes opponents’ offense (big paint-point suppression vs teams like the Lakers).
- Organizational approach: Sam Presti’s “draft character” model compared to San Antonio’s culture; roster construction built for long-term cohesion.
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Shai (Shai) Gilgeous-Alexander & Thunder style
- Shai’s footwork, step-back/midrange craft, and ability to “stop” in tight space are decisive — teams must choose to sell out on him or risk kickouts/spacing errors.
- Thunder’s athleticism and full-court pressure cause fatigue and offensive disruption.
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AJ Mitchell
- Legler compares his breakout to early-time Jalen Brunson — steady, reliable scoring with improved shooting and physicality; could become a max-caliber starter or be an attractive trade/target down the road.
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Denver Nuggets / Nikola Jokić
- Jokić looked explosive and decisive in a Clippers game: dominant scoring, elite efficiency (29/13/11 early-season averages cited), and near-elite shooting splits.
- Legler’s view: Jokić is fresher this season partly because of improved depth (e.g., Jonas Valančiūnas giving him more rest). That freshness leads to quicker scoring decisions and better late-game dominance.
- Jokić’s touch, hands, passing, rebounding, and court control rank him among the most unique offensive players in-person observers have seen — comparisons to Bird/Magic/Duncan in certain mixes.
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Clippers issues
- A collection of injuries (Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard in/out; Chris Paul availability) and roster gambles (trading Norm Powell, relying on John Collins/Beal) have created offensive instability.
- Beal injury and role changes (Powell gone) removed a reliable bench scorer and hurt Harden/Kawhi load management and matchup flexibility.
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Other NBA notes
- Heat surprise: Legler admitted being “wrong” — Miami’s style and results caught him off guard (playing well early).
- Detroit Pistons: surprising rise — Jalen Duren’s physicality/rim presence and Cade Cunningham’s leadership turned Detroit into a real team (toughness + spacing via Duncan Robinson).
- Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant appears engaged; Reid Sheppard’s shooting progress is pivotal to how far they go this year.
- Rookie talk: Cooper Flagg singled out by Legler as a long-term can’t-miss prospect; others like Cam Knipple (Knippo?) noted for maturity.
Main takeaways / analyst perspective
- OKC is the most complete two-way team early — their defense is historically disruptive and their depth masks individual absences.
- Denver is still a top favorite (Jokić plus deeper bench) and benefits from a fresher MVP who can score decisively when needed.
- Jokić’s current shape and stronger bench support make him arguably in peak form; his passing, touch, and feel are elite in-person experiences.
- Clippers’ offseason moves haven’t panned out yet — health and lack of a dependable scoring bench complicate their window.
- Detroit’s improvement is real, not a mirage — Duren’s physical evolution and the team’s toughness give them a legitimate trajectory.
- AJ Mitchell’s breakout could alter future roster and salary decisions for OKC (contracting tensions ahead).
Notable quotes & insights
- “OKC is on a different shelf than everybody else.” — Tim Legler on the Thunder’s early-season standing.
- “He’s fresher… and that’s the difference” — on Jokić, crediting bench depth (Valančiūnas) for lowering his minutes and improving production.
- “AJ Mitchell reminds me of Brunson’s early Mavs stretch” — Mitchell has a sustained, dependable scoring profile, not just one-off hot games.
- On Jokić: “Best offensive player I’ve ever seen in person” — Legler emphasizes Jokić’s touch, hands, and feel.
Week 11 NFL picks (Ringer 107 with Joe House & Billy Gil)
The crew reviewed lines, trends, and injuries, then locked five plays (with context and which games they avoided). Summary of the picks they settled on:
- Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs Chicago Bears (Vikings at home; JJ McCarthy concerns but Bears turnover-dependent)
- Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (Bad-weather home game in Cleveland; Browns’ home defense and weather as factors)
- Seattle Seahawks +3 at Los Angeles Rams (Seahawks road strength, Rams inconsistencies)
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Los Angeles Chargers (Jacksonville in warm/humid conditions; Chargers OL concerns — pick the Jags at +3)
- Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 at Denver Broncos (moved the hook; they paired this with Arizona +13.5 vs SF to buy down juice)
- Side note: They also used Arizona +13.5 vs San Francisco as a complementary wager (pricing to obtain desired juice).
Games they avoided or flagged as “stay away”
- Dolphins vs Commanders, Falcons vs Panthers, Packers vs Giants, Steelers vs Bengals, Cowboys vs Raiders, and Lions vs Eagles (some were debated but marked as cautious/stay-away due to volatility or injuries).
Trends/fun betting commentary:
- Power-couple trend (Madison Beer/Justin Herbert): since Madison Beer’s single release Herbert has exceeded 1.5 passing TDs in many games — humorous correlation used to back a Chargers/Herbert lean.
- Alternate jersey “jinx”: joking trend that special Nike Rivalry/alternate uniforms have coincided with losses for some teams.
Actionable recommendations (for listeners)
- NBA fans: Watch OKC games (defense + depth) and Nuggets games (Jokić in-person is highlighted as a must-see). Pay attention to AJ Mitchell’s continued performance for trade/contract rumors.
- Bettors: If following the Ringer picks, note the five plays they locked (see list above) and the logic (home-weather effects, offensive line issues, team identity matchup).
- Fantasy owners: Consider D’Angelo Russell-like factors — unexpected performances and playing-time shifts (AJ Mitchell, Jalen Duren, Cooper Flagg as long-term watch) can change valuation quickly.
Quick “what to stream/watch” list from episode
- Thunder games (to observe the defense and AJ Mitchell)
- Nuggets vs Clippers (showcase Jokić’s diverse offensive toolkit)
- Pistons (to assess Jalen Duren and Detroit’s new identity)
- Selected NFL Week 11 matchups as listed in picks if you bet/watch along
Credits: Tim Legler interview (NBA analysis), Joe House & Billy Gil (Ringer 107 NFL picks), hosted by Bill Simmons.