Overview of NFL Over/Unders, an Oscars Preview, and a Brady‑Pats Feud | With Cousin Sal, Sean Fennessey, and Seth Wickersham
This episode of The Ringer / Bill Simmons Podcast covers three main blocks: a live reaction to FanDuel’s NFL win‑total (over/under) releases with Cousin Sal, an Oscars preview and predictions with Sean Fennessey (ahead of the Netflix live show), and a deep discussion with Seth Wickersham about Tom Brady’s fractious relationship with the Patriots plus quarterback scouting themes from his book American Kings. The show mixes fast‑paced gambling takes, awards‑season analysis, and longform reporting on NFL personalities and organizational dynamics.
NFL over/unders — FanDuel lines, reactions, and betting ideas
Summary of the format: Bill and Cousin Sal run through each division, reveal FanDuel’s win‑total numbers and compare them to their own guesses. They discuss schedule strength, roster changes, free‑agency moves, and which lines they’d play now.
Key lines & notable numbers called out
- Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 (highest O/U discussed; FanDuel’s AFC favorite at +950 SB odds)
- Buffalo Bills: 10.5
- Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 (Bill likes this as an early buy / believes it will rise to 10.5)
- Denver Broncos: 9.5
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5
- Detroit Lions: 10.5
- Green Bay Packers: 10.5
- Chicago Bears: 9.5
- Cleveland Browns: 6.5 (FanDuel; Bill & Sal think the Browns number is interestingly high given uncertainty about Deshaun Watson)
- Miami Dolphins: 4.5
- New York Jets: 5.5
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5
- Arizona Cardinals: 4.5
Notes: Many teams’ numbers differ slightly from last year; several teams were moved a full 4.5 games lower than their previous projection (examples discussed: Patriots, Broncos).
Narrative takeaways / context behind notable calls
- Scheduling matters: Divisions playing AFC West + NFC West or other strong combos are projected lower. AFC East and NFC East viewed as some of the tougher combined schedules.
- Baltimore’s 11.5 surprised Bill — trades (e.g., getting Max Crosby from Raiders) and roster turnover factor into big swings.
- Chargers (9.5) and Chiefs (10.5) — Bill likes Chargers over 9.5 as a value; expects Chargers line to move up.
- Cleveland at 6.5 strikes the hosts as an appealing under if you want a single favorite: Bill’s “single favorite” bet = Cleveland under.
- AFC South and NFC South show a lot of parity and low projected totals — NFC South combined wins appear unusually low (29 total hinted at).
- Raiders/Brady/Vegas: excitement around rookie quarterback Mendoza and new pieces, but skepticism given franchise instability.
- Patriots: Bill calls New England’s projection (9.5 mentioned at one point for Pats) tied to schedule (first/second place schedules discussed) and injury concerns for Drake Maye and others.
Betting ideas mentioned (from hosts)
- Chargers over 9.5 — Bill’s preferred early play (expects line to climb).
- Vegas Raiders over 5.5 — mentioned as a “like” (Mendoza hype).
- Jets under 5.5 — Cousin Sal liked that under.
- Cleveland under 6.5 — Bill’s single favorite long‑term under.
- Monitor: Giants 7.5 and other “get‑in‑now” plays; Chargers likely to move; Carolina and New Orleans at 6.5 may be underpriced.
Oscars preview with Sean Fennessey
Sean Fennessey joins to preview Sunday’s telecast and to discuss how awards season trends and voter dynamics might play out.
Big picture and structural critique
- Timing: Sean argues the Oscars are too late in March; he’d prefer the ceremony earlier (late January / week around the Super Bowl) because the long awards season leads to fatigue and loss of cultural momentum.
- Awards noise: There are now many precursor guild shows and specialized events; the awards coverage ecosystem has grown and can feel redundant.
Main awards narratives and predictions
- Best Picture: The two main contenders are Paul Thomas Anderson’s (PTA) film (referred to as “One Battle”) and Ryan Coogler’s Sinner’s (Coogler film). PTA (director) seen as a near‑lock for DGA and director honors; picture is more contested.
- PTA is heavily favored for Director (DGA winner; industry‑revered).
- Sinners (Coogler) has massive industry/guild momentum but has won few precursors — an upset win for Best Picture would be historic.
- Best Actor: messy and unpredictable. Market (as of taping) showed Michael B. Jordan as slight favorite (the “not‑Chalamet” vote), Timothée Chalamet in longer odds due to perceived overexposure and backlash, Leonardo DiCaprio still in the field, and Wagner Moura viewed as a longshot but plausible upset.
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley is viewed as the near‑lock (few contenders loom as real threats).
- Best Supporting Actor: Between Bill Skarsgård (a favorite in many minds), Sean Penn (a controversial favorite who fits the Academy’s villain‑leaning tastes), and others like Benicio Del Toro — category feels open.
- Best Supporting Actress: Open, with industry sentiment noting possible surprising outcomes.
- SAG/precursors: Sean cautions that SAG is not fully predictive (only predicted best actor/actress 3/6 times recently).
Notable observations and themes
- Voter psychology matters: exposure, industry affection, personal redemption arcs, and how an actor/campaign “sits” with voters can trump some awards metrics.
- Campaigns, timing and “vibes in the room” (e.g., SAG energy) can swing races.
- Sean expects at least one shock or surprise; his instincts tilt toward chalk (PTA) for director but the Best Picture race could still have an upset.
Seth Wickersham interview — Brady, Patriots, and American Kings
Seth (ESPN veteran and author of American Kings) discusses:
- the complicated end to Tom Brady’s Patriots era,
- the organizational choices by Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft,
- the Alex Guerrero episode,
- and general quarterback scouting/development lessons from his reporting and book.
Brady / Patriots breakdown — key themes
- Friction grew for years: contract disputes, Brady’s push for longer security vs. Belichick’s historical skepticism about aging quarterbacks and refusal to “spend” big in guaranteed long deals.
- Guerrero (Tom’s trainer) and “TB12” style clashed with Patriots’ medical staff and culture; his presence caused internal friction and was a factor in organizational tensions.
- 2019/2020 moments were pivotal: short‑term contract structures, Brady’s desire for a longer commitment and more influence, Belichick’s philosophical stance, and the Patriots’ handling of personnel moves (e.g., Garoppolo, other QB alternatives) drove a wedge.
- Brady’s later moves (retire‑unretire, leaving, signing with Buccaneers, winning there, returning for Patriots tributes/statues) added complexity to the relationship; Kraft’s mix of pride and wounded feelings is part of the narrative.
- Brady’s relationship with New England soured enough that (per reporting) Brady reportedly said one team he would not be traded to was the Patriots (mentioned during the manuscript’s saga of Crawford/Crosby trade coverage), a line that stunned hosts.
- Result: Brady ends up in Vegas with partial role / ownership interest; Bay area of unresolved bitterness with Kraft/Belichick.
Quarterback scouting and American Kings takeaways
- Context (fit + team environment) matters massively — where a QB lands can make or break career trajectory.
- Traits that matter: competitiveness, efficiency (processing/decision making), toughness, and the ability to execute “mundane” plays consistently (not just highlight throws).
- Examples:
- Brock Purdy: low draft profile, found the right fit and succeeded.
- Caleb Williams: elite tools and toughness, but fit and coaching determine how quickly peak arrives.
- Drake Maye: showed physical traits and toughness but needs context and protection to maximize upside.
- Analytics & scouting: teams (e.g., Sean Payton, Kevin O’Connell examples) use varied measures (failure metrics, sack rates, decision errors) to project QBs — but college stats are often misleading due to scheme and competition differences.
- Mendoza (a rookie QB mentioned in the draft context) is discussed as a “Brady‑type” fit in some ways (grit, development arc), but Seth cautions against overhyping raw metrics — fit and developmental environment remain key.
Notable quotes and soundbites from the episode
- Bill on schedule issues: “The AFC East and the NFC South have the hardest schedules.”
- Bill on Browns line (and his favorite): “My single favorite over/under is Cleveland under.”
- Sean Fennessey on timing: “March 15th — the Academy Awards are way too fucking late.”
- Seth Wickersham on quarterback job hats: “You’re not just throwing the ball — matinee idol, field general, spokesperson, chief cheerleader, breathtaking asshole at times.”
- Recurring spot lines from sponsors: “State Farm. With the assist.”
Action items and practical takeaways
- If you bet early:
- Consider Chargers O/U 9.5 (Bill expects it to rise).
- Watch Cleveland under 6.5 as a potential strong under play (Bill’s favorite).
- Jets under 5.5 (Cousin Sal liked that under).
- Consider Raiders/Vegas overs around Mendoza (but account for franchise instability).
- For Oscars viewers:
- Expect PTA to be heavily favored for Director; Best Picture is a two‑horse race on paper with potential for an upset (Sinners).
- Best Actor is the most unsettled big category — watch late campaign energy and SAG reactions.
- For NFL fans / roster watchers:
- Schedule strength matters a lot for win totals — check opponent groupings to understand moves.
- Quarterback development: fit, coaching and protection are as important as raw talent. Rookie outcomes are highly context dependent.
Final notes
- The episode blends gambling-first reactions, awards season culture/strategy, and longform reporting on quarterback evaluation and Tom Brady’s legacy dynamic with the Patriots — useful for listeners interested in betting angles, Oscars betting/prediction thinking, and inside NFL organizational storytelling.
- Sponsors, promos, and upcoming Ringer pieces/Netflix live Oscars postshow were integrated throughout the episode; Bill and guests teased upcoming events and live coverage plans.