An NBA Mailbag, Belichick’s Snub, Pats Disrespect, and Half-Baked Ideas With Zach Lowe, Kevin Wildes, and Joe House

Summary of An NBA Mailbag, Belichick’s Snub, Pats Disrespect, and Half-Baked Ideas With Zach Lowe, Kevin Wildes, and Joe House

by The Ringer

1h 50m•January 30, 2026
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Overview of An NBA Mailbag, Belichick’s Snub, Pats Disrespect, and Half‑Baked Ideas (The Bill Simmons Podcast)

This episode features three main segments: an NBA mailbag with Zach Lowe (quick takes on teams, trades, and analytics), a Patriots / Super Bowl conversation with Kevin Wildes and Joe House (Belichick Hall of Fame snub, Patriots vs. Seattle preview, coaching/quarterback angles), and a lighthearted “half‑baked ideas” segment (restaurant concepts, sport‑event gimmicks, and delivery‑economy notions). The tone moves between detailed basketball/roster analysis, betting/odds context for the Super Bowl, and playful brainstorming for new business/entertainment ideas.

NBA mailbag with Zach Lowe — key takeaways

  • Spurs

    • San Antonio has looked comfortable against some quality teams (Rockets, OKC), and when young pieces click (Dylan Harper had a strong night) they can beat anyone — but consistency in playoff environment is the big question.
    • “Electric socket” role players (Kelton Johnson analogy) can supercharge teams briefly; depth and experience still matter.

  • Trades, draft picks, and trade mechanics

    • Protected/unprotected pick rules create complexity; teams can trade picks and package them to solve roster constraints (example cited: Phoenix/Utah deal).
    • Miami and Golden State are commonly discussed as teams that might try to swing big moves (e.g., Giannis pursuit), but practical constraints (assets, players like Bam Adebayo’s contract) limit obvious solutions.
    • Late‑season buyouts (e.g., Porziņģis scenarios) can change playoff landscapes; contenders monitor those markets.

  • “Lawler’s Law” (first to 100 wins = likely winner)

    • With scoring inflation, Zach and Bill suggest updating the benchmark; consensus pick: bump the marker roughly to 115 (a “Lawler corollary”), but still keep the homage to Ralph Lawler.

  • Golden State mistakes (recurring theme)

    • Missed chances: could have packaged prospects (Jonathan Kuminga) at times (Caruso trade chatter was noted).
    • Draft missteps and contract timing hurt (poole/Draymond extension sequence singled out as their most indefensible move — not protecting Draymond early enough).
    • Pandemic-era uncertainty and poor drafting choices (picking Kuminga over Franz Wagner, Moody over Trey Murphy) contributed.

  • Clippers

    • Media hype cycle: Clippers’ hot stretches always invite roller‑coaster expectations. Key risks: Kawhi’s health and James Harden’s playoff reliability.

  • GM job hypotheticals

    • Neither Bill nor Zach is eager for a long guaranteed GM contract; the job is grueling and often not fun unless you’re in a championship window. Exceptions: ground‑floor expansion projects (Seattle) or transformative rebuilds (Bulls).

  • All‑Star Game / scheduling

    • Skeptical view: the All‑Star format has been tinkered with too much — simpler solutions (or scrapping it) were floated.

  • Celtics & player durability

    • Tatum expected back (hosts confident barring setbacks); Celtics’ margin for error is small: availability/durability of role players (e.g., Cam Johnson, Jalen Suggs) matters a lot.
    • Discussion about conversion value of Malik Monk vs. Anfernee Simons (salary/skill tradeoffs).

Notable practical numbers/ideas: suggested Lawler update to ~115; Warriors’ lost flexibility traced to drafting and Poole/Draymond contract choices.

Patriots, Belichick Hall‑of‑Fame snub, and Super Bowl preview (Bill Simmons with Kevin Wildes & Joe House)

  • Belichick Hall of Fame snub

    • Hosts condemn the snub as absurd; many expect the Hall to revise rules and eventually induct Bill Belichick. The snub paradoxically generated public sympathy (a net positive PR outcome for Belichick).

  • “Nobody believes in us” Patriots narrative

    • Bill is embracing underdog status. Panel ranks a Patriots Super Bowl now among franchise highs (2001 still dominant; Deflategate era SB #2 highly prized).
    • Historic odds: both Patriots and Seahawks entered the season with very long preseason odds (Patriots ~80:1, Seahawks ~60:1) — unusual value volatility this year.

  • Super Bowl matchup dynamics (Patriots vs. Seattle)

    • Betting line debate: Bill thinks the spread should be closer to ~2.5 rather than 4.5 — some “Seattle steam” in the market may be inflating the line.
    • Key matchup advantage for Seattle: top pass defense and ability to pressure the QB — could disrupt Drake Maye (Patriots rookie QB).
    • Weather and game conditions matter: Patriots played many “nonstandard” weather games in their playoff run; weather could blunt Seattle’s perceived big‑play edge.
    • Injury updates (Drake Maye shoulder questions) and uncertainty around availability are narrative drivers.

  • Sam Darnold and redemption arcs

    • Darnold’s career arc (jets → struggles → resurgence) was discussed as a compelling sports redemption narrative; fans will likely root for personal storylines even amid broader team bets.

  • Coaching futures / Belichick’s next move

    • If Belichick returns to coaching, he’d likely want a clear quarterback situation. Hosts speculate on fit and franchise choices (Power/danger if he landed in Buffalo, Cleveland, etc.).

  • Cam Newton / influence on playcalling

    • Hosts credit Cam Newton’s mobile QB skillset as an influence on Josh McDaniels’ willingness to use QB runs/scrambles in the Patriots scheme — and suggest Cam gets some indirect credit if Patriots’ QB uses similar plays successfully.

Practical betting implication: consider that market lines may over‑favor Seattle by about two points; view Patriots as more competitive than the public narrative suggests.

Half‑Baked Ideas — fun, workable, and insane

(ideas brainstormed and riffed on by Bill, Kevin Wildes, Joe House)

  • Tower restaurant (the Tower)

    • Concept: every dish can be ordered as a stacked “tower”: seafood tower already exists; expand to burger towers, waffle towers, sushi towers, salad towers, etc. Visual appeal (+ crushed ice / height) is the selling point. Could be combined with other gimmicks.

  • Credit‑card roulette restaurant (Bill’s prior idea)

    • Customers pay but the bill is randomly assigned; social video + drama marketing potential. (Merged with Tower idea as a hybrid concept)

  • NBA “Royal Rumble” (All‑Star Saturday event)

    • Sequential entrances, short 1‑on‑1 / elimination games, retired/current players mixed in, tag‑team or singles variants. Fan excitement + TV spectacle; issues to solve: scoring system, player safety, injury availability. Strong entertainment value if timed/produced well.

  • Deep shotgun snap for QB

    • Tactical football tweak: snap the ball further back (via long snapper) to give QB extra time and create unconventional looks. Technical execution and game‑legal constraints would need review.

  • “Icing the kicker” sonic/AI stunt (not recommended)

    • Create an ominous song/visual deepfake to psych out kickers before field goals. Hosts noted ethical and practical issues — likely not advisable.

  • On‑demand dog‑walking via delivery apps

    • DoorDash/Postmates style, on‑call dog walkers for short neighborhood walks — simple extension of current delivery‑on‑demand marketplace.

  • Baby‑weight (weighted diaper)

    • Viewer submission: a device to keep a baby in place so parents can step out. Hosts flagged this as unsafe / ethically bad.

  • Ice obsession and curated ice delivery

    • Luxury big‑cube / curated ice delivery for home bars (Bill confessed to ordering perfect square ice delivered). Niche, but bizarrely marketable.

  • Misc: sports‑fan “elemental” bars (simulate venue weather conditions / environment), DoorDash as a broader personal‑assistant service (deliver people, errands).

Which ideas have promise?

  • Highest potential: Tower restaurant (visual, scalable), NBA Royal Rumble (big spectacle for All‑Star weekend), on‑demand dog walkers (simple marketplace extension).
  • Bad / unethical: “Baby weight” and AI deepfake psych‑outs.

Notable quotes & soundbites

  • "Lawler's Law is dead — but Ralph Lawler still deserves a hat tip." — on updating the first‑to‑100 benchmark (suggested new marker ~115).
  • “The worst thing they did in the five years…they didn't take care of Draymond.” — on Warriors' contract sequencing errors.
  • “If Steph wanted to leave, they'd have to do it publicly…this would have to be done out of love.” — on possibility of Stephen Curry requesting a trade.
  • Belichick Hall‑of‑Fame snub: hosts framed it as ludicrous and ultimately a PR gift that makes Belichick more sympathetic.

Topics discussed (quick list)

  • Spurs' emergence; young‑team playoff readiness
  • Trade mechanics, protected picks, buyouts
  • Warriors roster/draft evaluation; Draymond/Poole contract mistakes
  • Clippers’ postseason risks (Harden, Kawhi)
  • Lawler’s Law and scoring inflation
  • GM job appeal / franchise choices (Seattle, Bulls)
  • Super Bowl preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks — betting lines, weather, matchups
  • Bill Belichick Hall of Fame controversy
  • Player health/durability topics (Porziņģis, Bam, Tatum, Cam Newton influence)
  • Half‑baked business/entertainment ideas

Recommended actions / reader takeaways

  • NBA fans: treat first‑to‑100 heuristics cautiously in today’s high‑scoring era (use updated benchmarks like ~115).
  • Warriors & team builders: prioritize contract sequencing and extension timing — missed extensions can cripple future flexibility.
  • Super Bowl bettors: weigh Patriots’ underdog status and weather/injury uncertainty; market spreads may include “steam” that overvalues favorites.
  • Entrepreneurs: consider prototyping high‑visual dining concepts (Tower) or event spectacles (NBA Royal Rumble); dog‑walking as an on‑demand service is low‑barrier.
  • Ethicists/producers: don’t pursue deepfake/psych‑out stunts that target individual players — legality and ethics make such ideas dangerous.

Where to listen / extra notes

  • This episode is part of The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ringer). Guests: Zach Lowe (NBA mailbag segment), Kevin Wildes and Joe House (Patriots/Super Bowl + half‑baked ideas). Bill also mentions upcoming live Super Bowl props episode on Netflix and the Rewatchables series migration to Netflix video podcast.

If you want a short checklist of the three most shareable bits from the episode:

  • Update Lawler’s Law conversation: first to 115 (new corollary).
  • Warriors’ biggest mistake = mishandling Draymond/Poole extensions (lesson for other GMs).
  • Half‑baked winner: Tower restaurant / NBA Royal Rumble / Postmates dog‑walker are the strongest executable ideas.