The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Summary of The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

by The Ringer

2h 10m•August 28, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House break down every NFC team’s 2025 win total, using futures, schedule analysis, injury concerns, coaching changes, and a recurring “what if” exercise to decide where the value is. The episode is part football preview, part betting workshop, and part group therapy for fans trying to rationalize wildly different win totals.

Biggest Themes

  • Schedule matters more than ever: The hosts keep returning to rest advantages, weak divisions, and the difference between “good team” and “bettable over.”
  • Quarterback health is the biggest variable: Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, J.J. McCarthy/quarterback uncertainty in Minnesota, and especially the NFC South/QB chaos are central to the discussion.
  • Defenses and offensive lines still drive value: Teams with strong lines or disruptive defenses get extra credit, while bad lines are treated as season-killers.
  • The NFC North and NFC West are the most debatable divisions: Those two had the most disagreement and the most “could go any direction” energy.
  • House pushes exact-order and parlay ideas: He repeatedly recommends betting division order and using FanDuel’s boosted futures.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Bill is over 10.5 and thinks the roster is still too stacked to fade.
  • He argues the Eagles have:
    • elite offensive line play,
    • a loaded defense,
    • a strong recent history of winning 10–11 games,
    • and a schedule that avoids many elite quarterbacks.
  • The biggest concern: AJ Brown usage / offensive identity and whether the offense can keep humming if the team gets less explosive.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Bill is hard over 9.5 and eventually makes it a lock.
  • His case:
    • he liked nearly every offseason move,
    • Dak-led Dallas is usually a top-10 offense,
    • the defense should be better with the new coordinator,
    • and the schedule gives them a real shot to win the division.
  • Sal is much more skeptical and leans under, citing defensive uncertainty and a brutal slate.

Washington Commanders

  • Bill is under 7.5 and calls it a lock.
  • Main concerns:
    • the offensive line, especially the loss of Laremy Tunsil,
    • a quarterback who’s expected to be under constant pressure,
    • and a rough start to the schedule.
  • The group sees Washington as a regression team after a lucky 2024.

New York Giants

  • Bill is under 7.5 and also treats it as a lock.
  • His reasoning:
    • Jackson Dart/quarterback uncertainty,
    • too many injuries,
    • a brutal road slate,
    • and a roster that still doesn’t have enough reliable offensive talent.
  • House agrees the Giants are likely to be a disaster.

NFC North

Detroit Lions

  • Bill is slight over 10.5.
  • He likes the talent level, especially:
    • Jahmyr Gibbs,
    • the pass-catching weapons,
    • and Dan Campbell’s culture.
  • The hesitation is mostly injury-related: Detroit has had lousy health luck, and losing key pieces early would matter.

Green Bay Packers

  • This is one of the biggest disagreement points.
  • Bill is more cautious and leans under / around the middle.
  • House is more bullish and ultimately lands on Packers to win the division.
  • Green Bay’s case:
    • Jordan Love’s upside,
    • a solid offense,
    • and a schedule that could give them a fast start.
  • The concerns:
    • depth at receiver,
    • Jacobs health,
    • and whether the defense / trenches are strong enough to survive the back half.

Chicago Bears

  • Bill is over 9.5 and takes them as his division pick.
  • His thesis:
    • Ben Johnson is a major upgrade,
    • the offense should be much more functional,
    • and the “regression” crowd is overreacting to last year’s lucky finishes.
  • The main counterargument is the defense and some shaky personnel on the offensive line, but Bill thinks the coaching lift is real.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Bill is under 8.5.
  • He’s skeptical of the quarterback situation and doesn’t buy the “quarterback whisperer” narrative without proof.
  • House is much more optimistic about the Vikings than Bill is, largely because the division schedule creates a high floor.
  • Minnesota is one of the most debated teams in the whole episode.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Bill is all-in on the over 8.5 and makes it a lock.
  • He thinks Tampa is the best team in the division and points to:
    • a strong roster,
    • a returning offensive line piece,
    • and a soft enough division to get to 9+ wins.
  • He also believes the Bucs have a real shot at 11 wins if health breaks right.

New Orleans Saints

  • The hosts are generally bearish, though the win total is close enough that the schedule creates debate.
  • Main concerns:
    • dead cap / roster stagnation,
    • QB volatility,
    • and an uncertain defense.
  • They acknowledge the Saints have an easy home schedule, but not enough certainty to feel great.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Bill is under 7.5 and calls it his strongest lock of the episode.
  • His case:
    • bad QB situation,
    • no real receiver depth beyond Drake London,
    • a defense with major holes,
    • and an ugly schedule with lots of tough opponents.
  • He thinks Atlanta could be one of the NFL’s most obvious fades.

Carolina Panthers

  • Bill is slightly more optimistic than with Atlanta, but still not enthusiastic.
  • He sees Carolina as a low-ceiling team with:
    • a questionable Bryce Young outlook,
    • injury issues,
    • and a roster that still feels incomplete.
  • The Panthers are discussed as a possible “steal a few wins” team, but not a true contender.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams

  • Bill is over 11.5 and views them as a legitimate Super Bowl-level team.
  • He loves:
    • Sean McVay,
    • the top-end talent,
    • and the team’s ability to contend even with a brutal schedule.
  • His only real worries are age, depth, and health.

Seattle Seahawks

  • Bill is over 10.5 and ultimately picks Seattle to win the division.
  • He’s very bullish on:
    • Mike Macdonald,
    • the defense,
    • and the overall roster balance.
  • He also believes Seattle could start fast and build a big lead before the schedule gets harder.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Bill started skeptical, then warmed up and eventually settled on over 9.5.
  • Even so, he worries the team may still miss the playoffs if tiebreakers go against them.
  • The concern list is long:
    • health,
    • offseason turnover,
    • lingering bad juju,
    • and a lot of volatility around the roster.
  • Still, he acknowledges Kyle Shanahan’s ceiling is high enough to keep them dangerous.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Bill is under 3.5 and makes it a lock.
  • He thinks Arizona is the clearest bad team in the NFC:
    • brutal schedule,
    • poor roster,
    • and not enough quarterback upside to survive.
  • He sees them as a strong candidate for “worst record” and one of the best under bets on the board.

Best Bets / Locks From the Episode

Bill’s strongest locks

  • Cowboys over 9.5
  • Washington under 7.5
  • Giants under 7.5
  • Falcons under 7.5
  • Cardinals under 3.5
  • Buccaneers over 8.5

Broadest consensus

  • Fade the NFC South’s bottom teams
  • Respect the Seahawks and Rams
  • Expect Cowboys/Eagles to battle in the East
  • Treat Arizona as the clearest bottom-feeder

Final Takeaway

The episode’s core message is that the NFC is unusually top-heavy at the top and messy everywhere else. Bill ends up most confident in Dallas, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Arizona fades, while Sal and House push back in different places, especially on the Packers, Bears, and Vikings. The result is a preview built on injury risk, schedule edges, and whether you believe certain coaching/QB upgrades are real or just summer optimism.